Saturday, November 20, 2010

Rethinking TopoRank

I had originally put a condition into TopoRank to discount extreme blowout wins. This has 2 reasons:
1. To allow for sportsmanship and not make teams feel like they need to pile it on to appease the computer rankings
2. Because one can only say so much about beating up on a weaker team (ex: does beating North Dakota State by 50 mean that same team will stand toe-to-toe with Oregon?)

However, teams are not currently playing with TopoRank in mind, so I believe I'm allowing for a factor that doesn't actually make much sense. Furthermore, I do believe there's a difference in teams who can focus and trample a weak team by 50 as opposed to let them linger in the game and stretch the lead to 25-30 at the end. Removing the cap for how much better a team can be rated than another per game gives the following ranking (TopoRank v4):

1. Oregon
2. Boise St
3. Ohio State
4. Stanford
5. TCU
6. Alabama
7. Oklahoma
8. Oklahoma St
9. Auburn
10. California
11. Texas A&M
12. Southern Cal
13. Nebraska
14. Arizona
15. Wisconsin
16. Missouri
17. Arizona St
18. Arkansas
19. Georgia
20. South Carolina
21. Miami FL
22. LSU
23. Florida
24. Iowa
25. Florida St

Stay tuned for week 11 and 12 re-predictions using the new formula

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