I am using TopoRank to rank college football teams, and have compared my Week 9 standings and the BCS standings. I'm calling out the teams that ended up at least 5 spots lower or higher and examining if these re-rankings make sense. (*I've also added in the combined of two TopoRank algorithms)
| Rank | BCS | TopoRank | *TopoRank Combined |
| 1 | Oregon | TCU | Oregon |
| 2 | Auburn | Oregon | Missouri |
| 3 | TCU | Oklahoma | TCU |
| 4 | Boise State | Alabama | Oklahoma |
| 5 | Utah | Missouri | Nebraska |
| 6 | Alabama | Stanford | Alabama |
| 7 | Nebraska | Boise State | Stanford |
| 8 | Oklahoma | Utah | Auburn |
| 9 | Wisconsin | Iowa | Boise State |
| 10 | LSU | Arizona | Iowa |
| 11 | Ohio State | Auburn | Arizona |
| 12 | Missouri | Nebraska | Ohio State |
| 13 | Stanford | Ohio State | Utah |
| 14 | Michigan St | Arkansas | Arkansas |
| 15 | Arizona | Virginia Tech | Virginia Tech |
| 16 | Iowa | Michigan St | Oregon St |
| 17 | Oklahoma St | Oregon St | South Carolina |
| 18 | Arkansas | Illinois | Oklahoma St |
| 19 | South Carolina | South Carolina | LSU |
| 20 | Mississippi St | Oklahoma St | Michigan St |
| 21 | Baylor | Mississippi St | Florida St |
| 22 | Virginia Tech | Florida | USC |
| 23 | Nevada | Florida St | Mississippi St |
| 24 | Florida St | USC | Florida |
| 25 | NC St | LSU | Texas A&M |
The Good (*-no longer 5 spots better):
Oklahoma* (BCS #8, TopoRank #3) - This is a stretch. Oklahoma's only good win was a demolition of Florida St, and narrow wins over Utah St, Air Force, Cincinnati don't paint a picture of a national powerhouse. An alternate version of TopoRank has them at #8 and I think that's much more correct. Perhaps I also need to average the results of different algorithms (the subjectivity in TopoRank is how much credit to give a team over another based on the final score differential).
Missouri (BCS #12, TopoRank #5) - Missouri was racking up dominating wins and a close win over a probably underappreciated (now 6-2) SDSU team when it ran into a backup running back who had a career game. This is more a case of a very strong team tripping a bit than a consistently semi-strong performer. I think the #5 ranking is much more justified than #12.
Stanford (BCS #13, TopoRank #6) - This team packs a major punch and has absolutely blown up 6 of its 8 opponents (Washington St made the score look a lot closer in the closing minutes). The Cardinal get it done and don't leave things to chance. Their one loss is against one of the best teams in the last decade, and they managed to respond late in the game to pull off a win against borderline-Top-25 USC. Name 6 teams you'd favor over them. I sure can't.
Iowa (BCS #16, TopoRank #9) - Iowa is bearing the brunt of having 2 losses, both of them being close games against good teams. Their wins have been mostly beatdowns, including a 37-6 trampling of then-#6 Michigan St. This team is strong and would be competitive against many of the teams ranked ahead of them.
Arizona* (BCS #15, TopoRank #10) - Arizona is smothering opposing offenses, scores points in bunches, and is one subpar half away from being 8-0. Their defense is consistently stepping up when the offense stalls. This team is never out of a game.
Virginia Tech (BCS #22, TopoRank #15) - A close loss to a top team followed by a letdown loss on 5 days rest has doomed this team. They've rallied to win 6 straight since, their best win being a comeback against #23 NC St. Perhaps the Hokies are benefiting too much from score differential. The other algorithm (which gives less credit for blowouts) has them at #18.
Oregon St (BCS unranked, TopoRank #17) - The Beavers took on two national title contenders and were overmatched in both games, but not badly. And Jake Locker had one of his 2 good games to pull out a double overtime win. Their big win is against Arizona, but really they're a victim of their schedule. Replace games against TCU and Boise St with weaker opponents and this team is likely 6-1 and in the thick of the 10-15 range.
Illinois* (BCS unranked, TopoRank #18) - 3 losses against very good teams (including then unranked Missouri) have made voters forget about this team. However, they turned in dominating performances in 4 of 5 wins, and 2 of the 3 losses to good teams should be considered competitive games. This is not the profile of an unranked team. Perhaps they should be borderling Top 25. The other algorithm currently places them #32, so an average of the two seems to place them just right.
The Bad (* - no longer 5 spots worse):
Auburn (BCS #2, TopoRank #11) - Yes, Auburn is 9-0. Yes, they have big wins over South Carolina, Arkansas and LSU. But, Auburn barely squeezed by SC and LSU, and pulled away from Arkansas after Ryan Mallett was hurt. And they had narrow wins over barely ranked Mississippi St and unranked Clemson and Kentucky. This paints a picture of a team that is certainly good, but sweating out wins against teams across the Top 25 and beyond.
Nebraska* (BCS #7, TopoRank #12) - Nebraska has 2 wins against good teams, a win that used to look good (Washington), 4 wins that carry no weight, a loss that looks increasingly bad (Texas). This team created a strong impression against weak competition, then pulled out 2 wins powered by big plays against good teams. This team has gotten a little bit lucky, and is not as consistently good as voters think.
LSU (BCS #10, TopoRank #25) - This team might actually be ranked closer to its true strength if Tennessee hadn't tried to defend with 13 men on the field. In addition to the biggest gift of the year and a solid win over Mississippi State, they've pulled off narrow wins over no-longer-ranked teams North Carolina, West Virginia and Florida, and never-ranked Vanderbilt and McNeese State. Add in a loss to overranked Auburn, and this team belongs in the tail end of the Top 25.
The Additional Bad by Combined TopoRank:
Boise State (BCS #4, Combined TopoRank #9) - With only 2 quality opponents, it's hard to argue that Boise State has shown it's a national contender. We specifically see the Combined TopoRank place less emphasis on the margins of victory, causing the Broncos to fall lower.
Utah (BCS #5, Combined TopoRank #13) - The Utes suffer for the same reason as Boise State in this assessment, and their blowout loss to TCU hurts them further. With their only other quality game being against no-longer-ranked Pitt, it's hard to make the case that Utah should be a top 5 team.
Conclusion:
I think TopoRank places several teams more correctly with respect to their actual strength. I'll modify the rankings to incorporate both algorithms and republish* the results with Week 10 included. While it certainly is true that a team needs to prove itself by winning games (and not just playing good teams close), I contend teams are overly penalized for losses. Even if TopoRank can't overcome conventional thinking and 'gut feel', perhaps it can make a good handicapping tool for those of us headed to Vegas....
* I have updated the table with the Combined TopoRank results. I think they highlight the same over and underrated teams, and correct some of the extreme jumps. It also highlights the uncertainty of Boise State and Utah's rankings.
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