The results are almost perfectly split between guys who produce and don't measure, or vice versa.
Werner, both Joneses, Moore and Montgomery all produced at the college level, but measured poorly. Khaseem Greene also measured poorly, didn't produce great stats and is undersized. Moore actually performed similarly to Akeem Ayers, who is now doing a solid job playing linebacker in the Titans' 4-3. None of these guys seems to have the elite measurables that almost all eventual Pro Bowlers share.
Ansah, Mingo and Jordan are considered the top 3 prospects right now. All their measurables agree that they are the ones with true NFL potential, however none had great production. Additionally, Mingo and Jordan each need to gain 20 or more pounds to fill out their frames and compete with NFL blockers. Ansah has a mere 3 years of experience, but the other 2 should have been able to use their physical skills to dominate in college. None had over 5 sacks in their final year. Lemonier isn't rated as high and also has great measurables, but was also limited to 5.5 sacks in 2012 (though he reached 9.5 in 2011, higher than Ansah, Mingo or Jordan ever did). Margus Hunt measured about as well as Ansah and even had 8 sacks his senior year, but isn't shooting as far up the boards.
Perhaps the lone exception is Jamie Collins, who had 10 sacks to go with eye-popping numbers at the combine, though his production was mostly against lower competition.
If I'm a team looking for a pass rusher, I have a real dilemma here. There's no Von Miller in this group. Everyone comes with major question marks. In my mind, there are a ton of great mid-to-late 1st round prospects here. Teams can elect between the solid player who might have a few good years, the boom-or-bust athletic specimen, or the small-conference star.
I don't, based on the numbers, see the reason for Mingo, Jordan and Ansah being top-10 prospects, but Hunt and Lemonier being fringe 1st rounders. Of all these players, only Hunt showed improvement his senior year (unless we count Ansah's introduction to the starting lineup and resulting 4.5 sacks). The other players actually regressed in their final years.
Moore and Montgomery are already free-falling down the boards after being top-10 prospects during the season. Bjoern Werner is now going in the mid-1st in mocks, which seems about right. Jarvis Jones's bad pro day and spinal stenosis add up a giant buyer beware note, and he should be following Moore down the draft tubes.
This year's draft will have a lot of busts, and one or two of our super athletes will become big-time players. And, the fascination with upside will continue.