1. Indianapolis (1.8 wins) - Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford.
Speculation is rampant over whether Peyton Manning will return this season and spring Indy for a few wins and deny them the first pick, or if he'll try to talk his management out of drafting his heir. Luck simply has too much value compared to anyone else on the board, whether as the Colts' next franchise quarterback, or as tantalizing trade bait.
2. Carolina (4.0 wins) - Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
The previous mock calls for DT Brandon Thompson, but the value probably isn't there at #2. Carolina's pass rush is fairly weak as well, so a complement to Charles Johnson would have a significant impact.
3. Miami (4.3 wins) - Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma
Miami needs a franchise quarterback and will get one this draft.
4. Minnesota (4.3 wins) - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma St
Christian Ponder is progressing well, but Minnesota lacks consistent playmakers in the passing game. Morris Claiborne is a possibility as well since the Vikings have one of the worst pass defenses in the league (and their pass rush is certainly not to blame).
5. St Louis (4.3 wins) - Matt Kalil, OT, USC
The Rams sport the worst run defense in the league, so Thompson is an option here. The pick is a bit complicated since the Rams are fine with Rodger Saffold's play on the left side. The new regime admits that Jason Smith is not meeting expectation and they bring in a highly touted replacement and will let training camp work out the details of who starts where. Kalil's value is simply too high here.
6. Cleveland (5.0 wins) - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
Cleveland will likely cut ties with Peyton Hillis this off-season, leaving them no credible running threat. Richardson's upside is too high to pass on. Cleveland does have some options here. DT Thompson is a possibility to shore up their horrid run defense, but an impact offensive player is the most likely choice. WR Alshon Jeffrey is a possibility as well.
7. Arizona (5.3 wins) - Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
The Cardinals would love to swap places with the Rams, but they get the 2nd best tackle on the board. They would also consider an elite pass rusher but the one top-10 quality player is off the board already.
8. Washington (5.6 wins) - Matt Barkley, QB, USC
The Redskins inch up the draft board just enough to snag the 3rd top-rated quarterback. This season has shown that neither Beck or Grossman are convincing as starters and the Redskins are lucky to be in a position to draft a player with great growth and upside.
9. Jacksonville (5.6 wins) - Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina
The Jaguars stick to the script and pick up a big-time weapon for Blaine Gabbert. They might consider an elite pass rusher if another one demonstrates his value by the end of the college season.
10. Seattle (5.9 wins) - Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
Seattle's big win over the Ravens probably pushes them out of the running for a franchise quarterback. Their defense continues to play well every game, but their offense needs help. They are not running the ball effectively and they're giving up sacks in bunches. They've given it a fair bit of attention, but their offensive line is struggling. It needs help.
I'll continue to update the projected wins and mock draft every few weeks.