Risky picking a quarterback

There's a lot of debate about how and where a team should draft a quarterback, but it's pretty clear players outside the 1st or 2nd round are unlikely to succeed. Players drafted over the last 15 years have accounted for 48 pro bowl appearances, and a few clear trends jump out:

1. 40 of those 48 appearances are by players drafted in the first 11 picks

2. 35 of those 48 appearances are by players drafted in the first 5 picks

3. 24 of those 48 appearances are by players drafted in the first 2 picks

4. 18 of those 48 appearances are by players drafted with the top overall pick

5. Only 13 of those appearances are by players drafted after another player who never made a pro bowl.

In other words, franchise quarterbacks come from high picks, and usually the ones people expect to be the stars. But, there's a catch. Those pro bowl appearances come from a lot of repeats, and those high picks also have a lot of misses. Peyton Manning has 11 appearances by himself, and there isn't another top pick AFC pro bowl quarterback for 5 years (Carson Palmer). Another set of much uglier truths emerges:

1. 12 of 25 top 11 picks never make a pro bowl

2. 10 of 20 top 5 picks never make a pro bowl

3. 7 of 12 top 2 picks never make a pro bowl

4. 6 of 10 top picks never make a pro bowl

5. 5 of 15 draft classes have no pro bowlers in the first 2 rounds

In other words, not every year has a franchise quarterback, and even if it does, picking that guy from the obvious choices doesn't pan out about half the time. Teams need to be smart and know if they are really getting a great player, or just the best guy in that particular class (or perhaps not even that).