The center is the quarterback of the offensive line, and a great player in the middle can really gel the line into a cohesive front. However, centers are valued even less than guards, only 5 having been selected in the 1st round between 1996 and 2008. Yet, finding a center is non-trivial, there are only about 2 starting-caliber centers per draft. I am using the same groupings as for tackles. Full data is here.
Round 7:
Of 23 selections, 2 (K.Houser, E.Amano) are top, 1 is a solid starter and 5 are backups.
Round 6:
Of 17 selections, 1 (J.Sullivan) is top, 2 are solid starters and 5 are backups.
Round 5:
Of 12 selections, 2 (R.Pontbriand, D.Koppen) are top and 2 are solid. 4 more are backups.
Round 4:
Of 13 selections, 1 (K.Lichtensteiger) is a top, 4 are solid starters. 4 more are backups.
Round 3:
Quality picks up a lot here, of 10 selections, 1 (A.Treu) is a top and 7 more are solid starters.
Round 2:
Stacks up like round 2, of 9 selections, 2 (S.Satele, D.Raiola) are top and 3 are solid starters. 3 more are backups.
Round 1:
Only 5 picks have come from round 1, and they have all panned out. 1 (N.Mangold) is a top and the other 4 are solid starters.
Conclusion:
Quality is spread evenly on the first day, with 75% panning out as at least solid starters. Rounds 4 and 5 present about a one-third chance each of picking up a starter or a quality backup. Odds diminish by about half in the last 2 rounds. Teams looking for a starter should stay disciplined and not pick in the first 2 rounds. In 9 of the 13 years, the top player came from the 3rd round or later, and in 2 of the remaining years there was still a starting-quality player available at that time in the draft.
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Draft Metrics: Offensive Guard
Guards set the tone for the offensive line. They are the mean ones, the maulers, and tend to have the biggest impact in establishing a physical running attack. Guards are rarely selected in the 1st round, in fact each year averages 1 player taken with a top pick. I'm going to use the same bucketing as for tackles. As expected (since they have similar career lengths as and play every down like tackles), the buckets contain similar hit rates overall. Of 201 selections, we have 18 top, 30 adequate and 47 stopgap starters. 106 (about half) are busts. Full data here.
Round 7:
The last round shows a run on guards. Of 52 selections, 5 are adequate and 4 are stopgap starters. This has been a significantly weaker round for picks than any other.
Round 6:
Of 24 selections, 2 (M.Rivera, R.Hadnot) are top, 2 are adequate and 5 are stopgap starters.
Round 5:
Of 34 selections, 3 (D.Diehl, J.Scott, B.Olson) are top, 7 are adequate and 5 are stopgap.
Round 4:
Of 29 selections, 5 are adequate and 11 are stopgap.
Round 3:
Of 26 selections, 3 are top, 2 more are adequate and 10 more are stopgap.
Round 2:
The quality picks up drastically in the top 2 rounds. Of 23 selections, 7 are top, 4 more are adequate and 8 more are stopgap. The starter hit rate jumps suddenly over 50 percent, whereas it's 25% or lower in the later rounds.
Round 1:
There have only been 13 1st round selections, which reflects the relatively lower value assigned to guards compared to some other positions. Of these selections, 3 are top, 6 are adequate and the remaining 4 are stopgap quality.
Conclusion:
Rounds 3 through 6 are a good place to add depth with the possibility of more. 21% of selections in this range end up being at least adequate starters, and another 27% are quality backups. Round 2 yields about half starters, and almost all picks are at least a quality roster spot. Paralleling tackles, two-thirds of Pro Bowl selections are 1st rounders, but teams can build effectively using 2nd-round picks to save money, or assembling depth and developing starters from rounds 3 and on.
Round 7:
The last round shows a run on guards. Of 52 selections, 5 are adequate and 4 are stopgap starters. This has been a significantly weaker round for picks than any other.
Round 6:
Of 24 selections, 2 (M.Rivera, R.Hadnot) are top, 2 are adequate and 5 are stopgap starters.
Round 5:
Of 34 selections, 3 (D.Diehl, J.Scott, B.Olson) are top, 7 are adequate and 5 are stopgap.
Round 4:
Of 29 selections, 5 are adequate and 11 are stopgap.
Round 3:
Of 26 selections, 3 are top, 2 more are adequate and 10 more are stopgap.
Round 2:
The quality picks up drastically in the top 2 rounds. Of 23 selections, 7 are top, 4 more are adequate and 8 more are stopgap. The starter hit rate jumps suddenly over 50 percent, whereas it's 25% or lower in the later rounds.
Round 1:
There have only been 13 1st round selections, which reflects the relatively lower value assigned to guards compared to some other positions. Of these selections, 3 are top, 6 are adequate and the remaining 4 are stopgap quality.
Conclusion:
Rounds 3 through 6 are a good place to add depth with the possibility of more. 21% of selections in this range end up being at least adequate starters, and another 27% are quality backups. Round 2 yields about half starters, and almost all picks are at least a quality roster spot. Paralleling tackles, two-thirds of Pro Bowl selections are 1st rounders, but teams can build effectively using 2nd-round picks to save money, or assembling depth and developing starters from rounds 3 and on.
Draft Metrics: Offensive Tackle
Most teams approach building their offense through the trenches, specifically focusing on the offensive tackle. A dominant player can lock down the position for over a decade, and positively impact both the running and passing games. For this study, I've taken draft data from 1996 to 2008 (2009 data hadn't been updated yet). In assessing a player's performance, I'm looking at two tiers: games played per years available to judge whether a player is starting caliber, and Pro Bowls per year available to screen out elite players.
There were 256 tackles selected between 1996 and 2008. 32 of these have played 15 or more games per season (top starter) over their career, and 43 more play 12 or more games per season (adequate starter). An additional 54 appear in more than 6 games (stopgap starter/backup). The remaining half of selections are backups at best, and should be trivially replacable. Full data is here.
Round 7:
Of 41 selections, 1* is strong (J.Richard), 5 more are adequate, and 5 more are stopgap solutions.
Round 6:
Of 39 selections, 1 is strong (C.Johnson), 1 is adequate and 4 are stopgaps.
Round 5:
Of 34 selections, 1* is strong (C.Nicks), 2 are adequate and 8 are stopgaps.
*- both players have been in the league one year, so longterm success isn't guaranteed yet.
Round 4:
We start to see the quality pick up a little. Of 35 selections, 2 are strong (J.Evans, J.Runyan), 6 are adequate and 9 more are stopgaps. Both strong players have made a Pro Bowl, the lowest picks earning this distinction.
Round 3:
Looks much like round 4. Of 35 selections, 3 (A.Snyder, E.Winston, M.Starks) are strong, 7 are adequate and 9 can plug a hole in a lineup.
Round 2:
A noticeable increase in quality again. Of 28 selections, we see 7 strong players, 11 adequate starts, and 6 more stopgaps. Only 4 players (M.Pearson, W.Justice, J.Roque, J.Rogers) in 13 years fall below stopgap. We also see numerous Pro Bowl-level players (M.Roos, M.McNeill, F.Adams, C.Clifton, M.Light, ... )
Round 1:
Scouts earn their paychecks for this position. Of 44 selections, 17 are strong starters, 11 more are adequate and 11 are stopgaps. 5 players are busts. While the bucket numbers are pretty close to round 2, round 1 tackles have earned a combined 53 Pro Bowl nods vs 13 for round 2 picks.
Conclusion:
The late rounds produce about one starter per 10 picks, so don't get your hopes too high for that raw prospect. However, another 1 in 7 picks become decent backups, so there's a combined 1 in 4 chance your team will find a quality roster player here. The odds roughly double when picking in the 3rd and 4th round; per 4 players, 1 will be a starter, another will be a backup. 2 out of 3 players from the top rounds will be a solid starter or better. Though Pro Bowl selections are dominated by 1st rounders, a savvy team can build a strong line with 2nd-round picks and keep costs considerably lower.
Top offensive tackles should be located in the first two rounds, but upgrades to weak players can be readily found in the middle of the draft, and depth behind an otherwise solid line can be addressed with late-round picks.
There were 256 tackles selected between 1996 and 2008. 32 of these have played 15 or more games per season (top starter) over their career, and 43 more play 12 or more games per season (adequate starter). An additional 54 appear in more than 6 games (stopgap starter/backup). The remaining half of selections are backups at best, and should be trivially replacable. Full data is here.
Round 7:
Of 41 selections, 1* is strong (J.Richard), 5 more are adequate, and 5 more are stopgap solutions.
Round 6:
Of 39 selections, 1 is strong (C.Johnson), 1 is adequate and 4 are stopgaps.
Round 5:
Of 34 selections, 1* is strong (C.Nicks), 2 are adequate and 8 are stopgaps.
*- both players have been in the league one year, so longterm success isn't guaranteed yet.
Round 4:
We start to see the quality pick up a little. Of 35 selections, 2 are strong (J.Evans, J.Runyan), 6 are adequate and 9 more are stopgaps. Both strong players have made a Pro Bowl, the lowest picks earning this distinction.
Round 3:
Looks much like round 4. Of 35 selections, 3 (A.Snyder, E.Winston, M.Starks) are strong, 7 are adequate and 9 can plug a hole in a lineup.
Round 2:
A noticeable increase in quality again. Of 28 selections, we see 7 strong players, 11 adequate starts, and 6 more stopgaps. Only 4 players (M.Pearson, W.Justice, J.Roque, J.Rogers) in 13 years fall below stopgap. We also see numerous Pro Bowl-level players (M.Roos, M.McNeill, F.Adams, C.Clifton, M.Light, ... )
Round 1:
Scouts earn their paychecks for this position. Of 44 selections, 17 are strong starters, 11 more are adequate and 11 are stopgaps. 5 players are busts. While the bucket numbers are pretty close to round 2, round 1 tackles have earned a combined 53 Pro Bowl nods vs 13 for round 2 picks.
Conclusion:
The late rounds produce about one starter per 10 picks, so don't get your hopes too high for that raw prospect. However, another 1 in 7 picks become decent backups, so there's a combined 1 in 4 chance your team will find a quality roster player here. The odds roughly double when picking in the 3rd and 4th round; per 4 players, 1 will be a starter, another will be a backup. 2 out of 3 players from the top rounds will be a solid starter or better. Though Pro Bowl selections are dominated by 1st rounders, a savvy team can build a strong line with 2nd-round picks and keep costs considerably lower.
Top offensive tackles should be located in the first two rounds, but upgrades to weak players can be readily found in the middle of the draft, and depth behind an otherwise solid line can be addressed with late-round picks.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Draft Metrics: Defensive Ends
Defensive end is a position dedicated to producing sacks, and a dominant player can single-handedly elevate a defense. However, such dominant players are rare. How rare? There have been 223 defensive ends selected this decade, but only 4 (Allen, Dumervil, Freeney, Peppers) average double-digit sacks per year. There are 7 more players at over 8 sacks per year (elite), and 11 more over 6 (strong presence), and 20 more over 4 (solid pass rusher). What does this mean? In other words, each draft contains about 1 8-sack, 1 6-sack and 2 4-sack players. Only two players from this decade (LaBoy, K.Edwards) averaging 4 sacks per year failed to make a roster. The halfway point is about 2 sacks per year, anyone under this I'll consider a bust.
I am using sacks per year available to compensate for players who have failed to make rosters in some of the years since they have been drafted. Note that I'm only evaluating these players as pass rushers. Some players are moved to DT or LB positions where pass rushing is no longer a primary duty. See full data here
Round 7:
Of 36 players, 2 players (McCray, Ratliff) turned out solid and 31 busted.
Round 6:
Of 34 players, 1 player (T.Scott) turned out strong, and 31 busted.
Round 5:
Of 23 players, 2 players (T.Cole, R.Mathis) turned out elite, 2 (K.G.Biamila, Kampman) are strong and 1 more is solid. 13 players busted.
Round 4:
Of 30 players, 2 (J.Allen, Dumervil) are elite, 1 (S.Philips) is strong, and 3 more are solid. 19 players were busts.
Round 3:
Of 25 players, there are 4 solid (Tuck, Burgess, Hayward, Shaughnessy), and 15 busted.
Round 2:
Of 35 players, 2 (Woodley, Schobel) are elite, 2 (Umeniyora, D.Howard) are strong and 4 more are solid. 14 players are busts.
Round 1:
Of 40 players, 5 (Freeney, Peppers, M.Williams, Abraham, W.Smith) are elite, 5 (A.Carter, Sh.Ellis, Hali, Wimbley, J.Smith) are strong and 6 more are solid. 16 players are busts.
Conclusion:
Pass rushers have a very high bust rate. Even in the first round, only 25 and 40 percent turn out strong or solid, respectively. Drafting across the first 2 rounds yields starters about 30% of the time, and 40% bust.
Drafting in the middle three rounds yields a solid starter nearly 20 percent of the time (with a similar ratio of strong and elite rushers). Bust rates increase to 60%, but mid-round salaries are cheap, so it appears teams are better off spending several middle round picks on high-risk/high-reward prospects than trying to get the highly touted player.
I am using sacks per year available to compensate for players who have failed to make rosters in some of the years since they have been drafted. Note that I'm only evaluating these players as pass rushers. Some players are moved to DT or LB positions where pass rushing is no longer a primary duty. See full data here
Round 7:
Of 36 players, 2 players (McCray, Ratliff) turned out solid and 31 busted.
Round 6:
Of 34 players, 1 player (T.Scott) turned out strong, and 31 busted.
Round 5:
Of 23 players, 2 players (T.Cole, R.Mathis) turned out elite, 2 (K.G.Biamila, Kampman) are strong and 1 more is solid. 13 players busted.
Round 4:
Of 30 players, 2 (J.Allen, Dumervil) are elite, 1 (S.Philips) is strong, and 3 more are solid. 19 players were busts.
Round 3:
Of 25 players, there are 4 solid (Tuck, Burgess, Hayward, Shaughnessy), and 15 busted.
Round 2:
Of 35 players, 2 (Woodley, Schobel) are elite, 2 (Umeniyora, D.Howard) are strong and 4 more are solid. 14 players are busts.
Round 1:
Of 40 players, 5 (Freeney, Peppers, M.Williams, Abraham, W.Smith) are elite, 5 (A.Carter, Sh.Ellis, Hali, Wimbley, J.Smith) are strong and 6 more are solid. 16 players are busts.
Conclusion:
Pass rushers have a very high bust rate. Even in the first round, only 25 and 40 percent turn out strong or solid, respectively. Drafting across the first 2 rounds yields starters about 30% of the time, and 40% bust.
Drafting in the middle three rounds yields a solid starter nearly 20 percent of the time (with a similar ratio of strong and elite rushers). Bust rates increase to 60%, but mid-round salaries are cheap, so it appears teams are better off spending several middle round picks on high-risk/high-reward prospects than trying to get the highly touted player.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
A quick aside: Trade Value
The Anquan Boldin trade discussion has fired up again, and everyone's asking what he's worth. Given the expectations from drafting a replacement wide receiver, we can give upper and lower bounds on his value.
What is he worth to the Cardinals?
One can make the argument that he's worth nothing. The Cardinals are 6-2 without him in the last 2 years. They would need to give him a big contract to keep him, and he's not likely to play at an elite level for more than the next 2 years, so simply not re-signing him is not out of the question.
What is he worth to another team?
Depends what the other team needs. There are two primary scenarios to consider: a team who needs a receiver to put them over the top, or a team building for the longer term. The team who needs a proven veteran is clearly the higher value proposition for the Cardinals. Such a team would need to spend a 1st and 2nd round pick to most likely get a player of Boldin's caliber. Missing slightly and getting another #3 receiver wouldn't do for such a team. In the immediate term, the value is therefore about a 1st and 2nd. However, if they do get a quality starter, that player is guaranteed to be with the team for 4-5 years on a rookie contract, which is likely substantially smaller than Boldin's future cost, so that cuts the total value of Boldin to half or slightly under. Thus, a team might spend a high 2nd round pick. A rebuilding team would have the same considerations as the Cardinals with respect to Boldin's cost and longevity, but given the small yield for a starter from the 3rd or 4th round, they're likely to easily trade such a pick. Thus, I'd bracket Boldin's value between about a 2nd and 3rd round pick. If there are multiple teams in the short-term need category vying for him, it could push his value up to a 2nd + a mid-round pick, or maybe a high 1st rounder, though that seems extreme.
What is he worth to the Cardinals?
One can make the argument that he's worth nothing. The Cardinals are 6-2 without him in the last 2 years. They would need to give him a big contract to keep him, and he's not likely to play at an elite level for more than the next 2 years, so simply not re-signing him is not out of the question.
What is he worth to another team?
Depends what the other team needs. There are two primary scenarios to consider: a team who needs a receiver to put them over the top, or a team building for the longer term. The team who needs a proven veteran is clearly the higher value proposition for the Cardinals. Such a team would need to spend a 1st and 2nd round pick to most likely get a player of Boldin's caliber. Missing slightly and getting another #3 receiver wouldn't do for such a team. In the immediate term, the value is therefore about a 1st and 2nd. However, if they do get a quality starter, that player is guaranteed to be with the team for 4-5 years on a rookie contract, which is likely substantially smaller than Boldin's future cost, so that cuts the total value of Boldin to half or slightly under. Thus, a team might spend a high 2nd round pick. A rebuilding team would have the same considerations as the Cardinals with respect to Boldin's cost and longevity, but given the small yield for a starter from the 3rd or 4th round, they're likely to easily trade such a pick. Thus, I'd bracket Boldin's value between about a 2nd and 3rd round pick. If there are multiple teams in the short-term need category vying for him, it could push his value up to a 2nd + a mid-round pick, or maybe a high 1st rounder, though that seems extreme.
Draft Metrics: Wide Receivers
Now that we've found where to pick our franchise quarterback, it's time to give him some weapons. Wide receiver is unique in that a team can field many of them at once, and they get to work against typically progressively weaker components of the defense. Thus, it stands to reason that a team can use a range of quality at the position. For this study I will look at receivers drafted since 2001 (299 total), and will measure receptions per year available (the number of years they could have played if they stayed in the league since they were drafted). I am breaking this performance into 4 categories: greater than 60 (top receiver), 60-40 (solid #2), 40-20 (solid #3) and less than 20 (replacable at will, aka 'bust'). See all data here.
Drafting a starter:
teams are generally looking to add playmakers at the position, which necessitates them being on the field. There have been 17 top receivers selected since 2001, 7 from the 1st round, 5 from the 2nd, and 5 spread across later rounds (3, 4, 4, 7, 7). There have been 24 solid #2 options, 12 from round 1, 7 from round 2, and 5 from later rounds (3, 4, 4, 5, 5). Combined, 19 came from round 1, 12 from round 2 and 10 from rounds 3 through 7. This suggests there is good talent in the later rounds, however, it is harder to find these diamonds amongst the refuse.
Round 7:
Of the 65 selections, 55 have been complete busts (34 of them have never caught a pass in the NFL). 2 have turned out to be top pass-catchers (Colston, Houshmandzadeh). 7 players have turned out to as solid #3 options. Starters = 3%, Regular contributors = 14%
Round 6:
Of the 41 selections, 4 have become solid #3 options and the rest have been busts (28 have never caught a pass). Starters = 0%, Regular contributors = 10%
Round 5:
Of the 39 selections, there are 2 each solid #2 (Breaston, Knox) and #3. 17 players never caught a pass. Starters = 5%, Regular contributors = 10%
Round 4:
Of the 34 selections, there are 2 top targets (Marshall, Collie) and 2 solid #2 (Cotchery, M.Thomas). There are 7 more solid #3 options. 6 players in this group never caught a pass. Starters = 12%, Regular contributors = 32%
Round 3:
The overall quality is still low here. Of the 40 selections, there is 1 top receiver (S.Smith of CAR), one #2 (Berrian) and 10 more #3 wideouts. 4 players have zero career receptions. Starters = 5%, Regular contributors = 30%
Round 2:
Finally some improvement. Of the 42 selections, there are 5 top targets (Boldin, Ochocinco, Royal, D.Jackson, Jennings), 7 more #2 options and 10 #3 wideouts. Only 1 player never caught a pass (Dexter Jackson). Starters = 29%, Regular contributor = 52%
Round 1:
Of the 38 selections, 7 turned out to be top receivers, 12 more were solid #2 and 10 were #3, leaving 9 as complete busts. Half the receivers will be career starters, and the other half are replacable with late first-day or early second-day picks. Starters = 50%, Regular contributor = 76%.
Conclusion:
If you are looking for a starter, you should be drafting in the first 2 rounds, and even then the yield is low (around 40%), though about 2 out of 3 will earn regular playing time and catch at least 20 passes a year. Rounds 3 and 4 produce a regular contributor per 3 picks, and almost no starters. Wide receiver is a great position to target in rounds 5-7 for special teams players such as gunners or returners. These players will often have some skills but won't be able to crack a starting roster due to size issues, route-running deficiencies, etc.
Drafting a starter:
teams are generally looking to add playmakers at the position, which necessitates them being on the field. There have been 17 top receivers selected since 2001, 7 from the 1st round, 5 from the 2nd, and 5 spread across later rounds (3, 4, 4, 7, 7). There have been 24 solid #2 options, 12 from round 1, 7 from round 2, and 5 from later rounds (3, 4, 4, 5, 5). Combined, 19 came from round 1, 12 from round 2 and 10 from rounds 3 through 7. This suggests there is good talent in the later rounds, however, it is harder to find these diamonds amongst the refuse.
Round 7:
Of the 65 selections, 55 have been complete busts (34 of them have never caught a pass in the NFL). 2 have turned out to be top pass-catchers (Colston, Houshmandzadeh). 7 players have turned out to as solid #3 options. Starters = 3%, Regular contributors = 14%
Round 6:
Of the 41 selections, 4 have become solid #3 options and the rest have been busts (28 have never caught a pass). Starters = 0%, Regular contributors = 10%
Round 5:
Of the 39 selections, there are 2 each solid #2 (Breaston, Knox) and #3. 17 players never caught a pass. Starters = 5%, Regular contributors = 10%
Round 4:
Of the 34 selections, there are 2 top targets (Marshall, Collie) and 2 solid #2 (Cotchery, M.Thomas). There are 7 more solid #3 options. 6 players in this group never caught a pass. Starters = 12%, Regular contributors = 32%
Round 3:
The overall quality is still low here. Of the 40 selections, there is 1 top receiver (S.Smith of CAR), one #2 (Berrian) and 10 more #3 wideouts. 4 players have zero career receptions. Starters = 5%, Regular contributors = 30%
Round 2:
Finally some improvement. Of the 42 selections, there are 5 top targets (Boldin, Ochocinco, Royal, D.Jackson, Jennings), 7 more #2 options and 10 #3 wideouts. Only 1 player never caught a pass (Dexter Jackson). Starters = 29%, Regular contributor = 52%
Round 1:
Of the 38 selections, 7 turned out to be top receivers, 12 more were solid #2 and 10 were #3, leaving 9 as complete busts. Half the receivers will be career starters, and the other half are replacable with late first-day or early second-day picks. Starters = 50%, Regular contributor = 76%.
Conclusion:
If you are looking for a starter, you should be drafting in the first 2 rounds, and even then the yield is low (around 40%), though about 2 out of 3 will earn regular playing time and catch at least 20 passes a year. Rounds 3 and 4 produce a regular contributor per 3 picks, and almost no starters. Wide receiver is a great position to target in rounds 5-7 for special teams players such as gunners or returners. These players will often have some skills but won't be able to crack a starting roster due to size issues, route-running deficiencies, etc.
Monday, January 25, 2010
Draft Metrics: Quarterbacks
Quarterback is the flagship position of any team, and perhaps more draft effort goes into that selection than any other. Conventional wisdom says franchise quarterbacks are found in the first round, though there are examples of extreme late-round or undrafted successes (Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck, Kurt Warner). So, what's the reality, what should a team expect? For this exercise, I'll be looking at career rating vs draft round for players with at least 100 lifetime pass attemps, and the Sit-Adjusted Games per Year, which compensates for quarterbacks not typically playing their rookie year and a successful pick lasting at least 10 years in the league. The goal is to pick a franchise starter, which is a player who will play most games for the next 10 years or more. I've left players with little expected playtime (last 2 drafts) off the list, and compiled the data for the 1995 through 2007 drafts, which includes 160 total picks. See complete chart here.
69 of the 160 players have less than 100 lifetime pass attempts, in fact 42 of them have never thrown a pass in the NFL. All but a few of these picks came from day 2, about two-thirds of these picks (round 4: 9 of 21, round 5: 12 of 17, round 6: 18 of 28, round 7: 23 of 31) go virtually unused. Picks from the first 4 rounds fare considerably better at getting on the field, so I will focus the discussion on these rounds.
Round 4:
12 of 21 players have thrown at least 100 NFL passes. There are a few notable successes (David Garrard, Kyle Orton). A few others have turned in solid performances in limited time (Seneca Wallace, Sage Rosenfels, Aaron Brooks), but most are weak backups or never see the field.
Round 3:
14 of 18 quarterbacks have thrown at least 100 NFL passes (exceptions are Giovanni Carmazzi, David Greene, Charlie Whitehurst and Dave Ragone), but only 2 have become regular starters (Trent Edwards and Matt Schaub), and several others have gotten spot duty but been displaced (Brian Griese, Josh McCown, Charlie Frye, Chris Simms). Most become adequate short-term backups. This round stacks up much like round 4.
Round 2:
12 of 14 have thrown at least 100 NFL passes (Marques Tuiasosopo, Drew Stanton). Only 2 were regular starters (Drew Brees, Jake Plummer), and several others played significant time as starters (Kordell Stewart, Charlie Batch, Tarvaris Jackson). The bulk are again relegated to adequate backup duty, though career ratings more consistently hover in the 70s (instead of ranging down to about 60 for round 3 picks).
Round 1:
Drumroll please, for the obvious conclusion. 30 of 31 quarterbacks have gotten on the field for at least a season's worth of games (Jim Druckenmiller is the dubious exception). 5 have posted career ratings over 90, and 6 more are over 80 (for comparison, Dan Marino and Brett Favre are 86.4 and 86.6, respectively). 11 more are over 70, and only two are under 60 (Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith). The average for this group is about 75. Drafting a quarterback in the first round has about equal chances of netting a guy who can win games, who can manage, and who is a bust.
Top franchise quarterbacks come primarily from round 1. Picking in round 2 most likely gets you a solid backup, rounds 3 and 4 net players you can use in a pinch, while rounds 5 through 7 are probably better spent on any other position.
69 of the 160 players have less than 100 lifetime pass attempts, in fact 42 of them have never thrown a pass in the NFL. All but a few of these picks came from day 2, about two-thirds of these picks (round 4: 9 of 21, round 5: 12 of 17, round 6: 18 of 28, round 7: 23 of 31) go virtually unused. Picks from the first 4 rounds fare considerably better at getting on the field, so I will focus the discussion on these rounds.
Round 4:
12 of 21 players have thrown at least 100 NFL passes. There are a few notable successes (David Garrard, Kyle Orton). A few others have turned in solid performances in limited time (Seneca Wallace, Sage Rosenfels, Aaron Brooks), but most are weak backups or never see the field.
Round 3:
14 of 18 quarterbacks have thrown at least 100 NFL passes (exceptions are Giovanni Carmazzi, David Greene, Charlie Whitehurst and Dave Ragone), but only 2 have become regular starters (Trent Edwards and Matt Schaub), and several others have gotten spot duty but been displaced (Brian Griese, Josh McCown, Charlie Frye, Chris Simms). Most become adequate short-term backups. This round stacks up much like round 4.
Round 2:
12 of 14 have thrown at least 100 NFL passes (Marques Tuiasosopo, Drew Stanton). Only 2 were regular starters (Drew Brees, Jake Plummer), and several others played significant time as starters (Kordell Stewart, Charlie Batch, Tarvaris Jackson). The bulk are again relegated to adequate backup duty, though career ratings more consistently hover in the 70s (instead of ranging down to about 60 for round 3 picks).
Round 1:
Drumroll please, for the obvious conclusion. 30 of 31 quarterbacks have gotten on the field for at least a season's worth of games (Jim Druckenmiller is the dubious exception). 5 have posted career ratings over 90, and 6 more are over 80 (for comparison, Dan Marino and Brett Favre are 86.4 and 86.6, respectively). 11 more are over 70, and only two are under 60 (Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith). The average for this group is about 75. Drafting a quarterback in the first round has about equal chances of netting a guy who can win games, who can manage, and who is a bust.
Top franchise quarterbacks come primarily from round 1. Picking in round 2 most likely gets you a solid backup, rounds 3 and 4 net players you can use in a pinch, while rounds 5 through 7 are probably better spent on any other position.
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Draft Metrics: Running Backs
It's important to know what kind of production to expect from your running back, and targeting the right round to meet that expectation should increase the success of meeting needs with draft picks. I've charted rush yards per year and combined yards per year vs round drafted for running backs drafted since 2002 (to focus on current backs, given the expected career for them is about 8 years). A very interesting trend develops: if we remove the two 1st-round outliers (Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson), there is virtually no difference in the peak performance per round on day 1. As expected, the average performance decreases with round.
First, let's take a look at the Rush Yards per Year and Combined Yards per Year vs Draft Round graphs (see full data here):
We see very similar distributions in both, suggesting there's no significant change in usage for backs taken in early rounds vs later ones. We also see a gradual dropoff in average career production with round, and no 1st rounder has failed to play at least one year (though this is not surprising given the money invested in them, and I expect this theme to persist for other positions).
So then, where should your team look for a back? As mentioned before, there are 2 exceptional backs from the last 8 years, and neither is the type of talent that is available in any draft. There is approximately 1 back per draft that will average over 1000 yards per year, 3 of whom came from the 1st round, 2 from the 2nd, and 1 each from the 3rd and 4th. Hence, the top back per draft can be lurking anywhere on day 1.
Digging deeper into the talent pool, we come up with 20 backs who averaged at least 800 yards per season (1st: 11, 2nd: 5, 3rd: 3, 4th: 1), which is about what we'd expect from a quality feature back. More than half of them are found in the first round, and an overwhelming majority come from the first two rounds.
Rounds 3 and 4 produce many solid backups, or players for multiple-back systems, but virtually no stars. Players from this range may have a few good years, but don't sustain success (Brandon Jacobs, Jerious Norwood). Careers average about 5 years.
Rounds 5 and later rarely produce anyone better than backup quality, Michael Turner and Tim Hightower being the exceptions. About a third of these players will never make an NFL roster.
First, let's take a look at the Rush Yards per Year and Combined Yards per Year vs Draft Round graphs (see full data here):
We see very similar distributions in both, suggesting there's no significant change in usage for backs taken in early rounds vs later ones. We also see a gradual dropoff in average career production with round, and no 1st rounder has failed to play at least one year (though this is not surprising given the money invested in them, and I expect this theme to persist for other positions).
So then, where should your team look for a back? As mentioned before, there are 2 exceptional backs from the last 8 years, and neither is the type of talent that is available in any draft. There is approximately 1 back per draft that will average over 1000 yards per year, 3 of whom came from the 1st round, 2 from the 2nd, and 1 each from the 3rd and 4th. Hence, the top back per draft can be lurking anywhere on day 1.
Digging deeper into the talent pool, we come up with 20 backs who averaged at least 800 yards per season (1st: 11, 2nd: 5, 3rd: 3, 4th: 1), which is about what we'd expect from a quality feature back. More than half of them are found in the first round, and an overwhelming majority come from the first two rounds.
Rounds 3 and 4 produce many solid backups, or players for multiple-back systems, but virtually no stars. Players from this range may have a few good years, but don't sustain success (Brandon Jacobs, Jerious Norwood). Careers average about 5 years.
Rounds 5 and later rarely produce anyone better than backup quality, Michael Turner and Tim Hightower being the exceptions. About a third of these players will never make an NFL roster.
NFL Draft
Every year the NFL Draft brings great hopes, fan opinions, Mel Kiper's prospect grades and ultimately, elation or disappointment. We debate if it's worth getting that top quarterback or running back, or to focus on the offensive line first. What we really need to know is the expectation of performance for a prospect drafted in a given round. I'm going to be evaluating performance vs round drafted for a number of positions to help sort these questions out.
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