Tuesday, January 26, 2010

A quick aside: Trade Value

The Anquan Boldin trade discussion has fired up again, and everyone's asking what he's worth. Given the expectations from drafting a replacement wide receiver, we can give upper and lower bounds on his value.

What is he worth to the Cardinals?
One can make the argument that he's worth nothing. The Cardinals are 6-2 without him in the last 2 years. They would need to give him a big contract to keep him, and he's not likely to play at an elite level for more than the next 2 years, so simply not re-signing him is not out of the question.

What is he worth to another team?
Depends what the other team needs. There are two primary scenarios to consider: a team who needs a receiver to put them over the top, or a team building for the longer term. The team who needs a proven veteran is clearly the higher value proposition for the Cardinals. Such a team would need to spend a 1st and 2nd round pick to most likely get a player of Boldin's caliber. Missing slightly and getting another #3 receiver wouldn't do for such a team. In the immediate term, the value is therefore about a 1st and 2nd. However, if they do get a quality starter, that player is guaranteed to be with the team for 4-5 years on a rookie contract, which is likely substantially smaller than Boldin's future cost, so that cuts the total value of Boldin to half or slightly under. Thus, a team might spend a high 2nd round pick. A rebuilding team would have the same considerations as the Cardinals with respect to Boldin's cost and longevity, but given the small yield for a starter from the 3rd or 4th round, they're likely to easily trade such a pick. Thus, I'd bracket Boldin's value between about a 2nd and 3rd round pick. If there are multiple teams in the short-term need category vying for him, it could push his value up to a 2nd + a mid-round pick, or maybe a high 1st rounder, though that seems extreme.

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