Draft Metrics: Offensive Guard

Guards set the tone for the offensive line. They are the mean ones, the maulers, and tend to have the biggest impact in establishing a physical running attack. Guards are rarely selected in the 1st round, in fact each year averages 1 player taken with a top pick. I'm going to use the same bucketing as for tackles. As expected (since they have similar career lengths as and play every down like tackles), the buckets contain similar hit rates overall. Of 201 selections, we have 18 top, 30 adequate and 47 stopgap starters. 106 (about half) are busts. Full data here.

Round 7:
The last round shows a run on guards. Of 52 selections, 5 are adequate and 4 are stopgap starters. This has been a significantly weaker round for picks than any other.

Round 6:
Of 24 selections, 2 (M.Rivera, R.Hadnot) are top, 2 are adequate and 5 are stopgap starters.

Round 5:
Of 34 selections, 3 (D.Diehl, J.Scott, B.Olson) are top, 7 are adequate and 5 are stopgap.

Round 4:
Of 29 selections, 5 are adequate and 11 are stopgap.

Round 3:
Of 26 selections, 3 are top, 2 more are adequate and 10 more are stopgap.

Round 2:
The quality picks up drastically in the top 2 rounds. Of 23 selections, 7 are top, 4 more are adequate and 8 more are stopgap. The starter hit rate jumps suddenly over 50 percent, whereas it's 25% or lower in the later rounds.

Round 1:
There have only been 13 1st round selections, which reflects the relatively lower value assigned to guards compared to some other positions. Of these selections, 3 are top, 6 are adequate and the remaining 4 are stopgap quality.

Conclusion:
Rounds 3 through 6 are a good place to add depth with the possibility of more. 21% of selections in this range end up being at least adequate starters, and another 27% are quality backups. Round 2 yields about half starters, and almost all picks are at least a quality roster spot. Paralleling tackles, two-thirds of Pro Bowl selections are 1st rounders, but teams can build effectively using 2nd-round picks to save money, or assembling depth and developing starters from rounds 3 and on.