Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Draft Metrics: Wide Receivers

Now that we've found where to pick our franchise quarterback, it's time to give him some weapons. Wide receiver is unique in that a team can field many of them at once, and they get to work against typically progressively weaker components of the defense. Thus, it stands to reason that a team can use a range of quality at the position. For this study I will look at receivers drafted since 2001 (299 total), and will measure receptions per year available (the number of years they could have played if they stayed in the league since they were drafted). I am breaking this performance into 4 categories: greater than 60 (top receiver), 60-40 (solid #2), 40-20 (solid #3) and less than 20 (replacable at will, aka 'bust'). See all data here.

Drafting a starter:
teams are generally looking to add playmakers at the position, which necessitates them being on the field. There have been 17 top receivers selected since 2001, 7 from the 1st round, 5 from the 2nd, and 5 spread across later rounds (3, 4, 4, 7, 7). There have been 24 solid #2 options, 12 from round 1, 7 from round 2, and 5 from later rounds (3, 4, 4, 5, 5). Combined, 19 came from round 1, 12 from round 2 and 10 from rounds 3 through 7. This suggests there is good talent in the later rounds, however, it is harder to find these diamonds amongst the refuse.

Round 7:
Of the 65 selections, 55 have been complete busts (34 of them have never caught a pass in the NFL). 2 have turned out to be top pass-catchers (Colston, Houshmandzadeh). 7 players have turned out to as solid #3 options. Starters = 3%, Regular contributors = 14%

Round 6:
Of the 41 selections, 4 have become solid #3 options and the rest have been busts (28 have never caught a pass). Starters = 0%, Regular contributors = 10%

Round 5:
Of the 39 selections, there are 2 each solid #2 (Breaston, Knox) and #3. 17 players never caught a pass. Starters = 5%, Regular contributors = 10%

Round 4:
Of the 34 selections, there are 2 top targets (Marshall, Collie) and 2 solid #2 (Cotchery, M.Thomas). There are 7 more solid #3 options. 6 players in this group never caught a pass. Starters = 12%, Regular contributors = 32%

Round 3:
The overall quality is still low here. Of the 40 selections, there is 1 top receiver (S.Smith of CAR), one #2 (Berrian) and 10 more #3 wideouts. 4 players have zero career receptions. Starters = 5%, Regular contributors = 30%

Round 2:
Finally some improvement. Of the 42 selections, there are 5 top targets (Boldin, Ochocinco, Royal, D.Jackson, Jennings), 7 more #2 options and 10 #3 wideouts. Only 1 player never caught a pass (Dexter Jackson). Starters = 29%, Regular contributor = 52%

Round 1:
Of the 38 selections, 7 turned out to be top receivers, 12 more were solid #2 and 10 were #3, leaving 9 as complete busts. Half the receivers will be career starters, and the other half are replacable with late first-day or early second-day picks. Starters = 50%, Regular contributor = 76%.

Conclusion:
If you are looking for a starter, you should be drafting in the first 2 rounds, and even then the yield is low (around 40%), though about 2 out of 3 will earn regular playing time and catch at least 20 passes a year. Rounds 3 and 4 produce a regular contributor per 3 picks, and almost no starters. Wide receiver is a great position to target in rounds 5-7 for special teams players such as gunners or returners. These players will often have some skills but won't be able to crack a starting roster due to size issues, route-running deficiencies, etc.

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