Draft Metrics: Defensive Ends

Defensive end is a position dedicated to producing sacks, and a dominant player can single-handedly elevate a defense. However, such dominant players are rare. How rare? There have been 223 defensive ends selected this decade, but only 4 (Allen, Dumervil, Freeney, Peppers) average double-digit sacks per year. There are 7 more players at over 8 sacks per year (elite), and 11 more over 6 (strong presence), and 20 more over 4 (solid pass rusher). What does this mean? In other words, each draft contains about 1 8-sack, 1 6-sack and 2 4-sack players. Only two players from this decade (LaBoy, K.Edwards) averaging 4 sacks per year failed to make a roster. The halfway point is about 2 sacks per year, anyone under this I'll consider a bust.

I am using sacks per year available to compensate for players who have failed to make rosters in some of the years since they have been drafted. Note that I'm only evaluating these players as pass rushers. Some players are moved to DT or LB positions where pass rushing is no longer a primary duty. See full data here

Round 7:
Of 36 players, 2 players (McCray, Ratliff) turned out solid and 31 busted.

Round 6:
Of 34 players, 1 player (T.Scott) turned out strong, and 31 busted.

Round 5:
Of 23 players, 2 players (T.Cole, R.Mathis) turned out elite, 2 (K.G.Biamila, Kampman) are strong and 1 more is solid. 13 players busted.

Round 4:
Of 30 players, 2 (J.Allen, Dumervil) are elite, 1 (S.Philips) is strong, and 3 more are solid. 19 players were busts.

Round 3:
Of 25 players, there are 4 solid (Tuck, Burgess, Hayward, Shaughnessy), and 15 busted.

Round 2:
Of 35 players, 2 (Woodley, Schobel) are elite, 2 (Umeniyora, D.Howard) are strong and 4 more are solid. 14 players are busts.

Round 1:
Of 40 players, 5 (Freeney, Peppers, M.Williams, Abraham, W.Smith) are elite, 5 (A.Carter, Sh.Ellis, Hali, Wimbley, J.Smith) are strong and 6 more are solid. 16 players are busts.

Conclusion:
Pass rushers have a very high bust rate. Even in the first round, only 25 and 40 percent turn out strong or solid, respectively. Drafting across the first 2 rounds yields starters about 30% of the time, and 40% bust.

Drafting in the middle three rounds yields a solid starter nearly 20 percent of the time (with a similar ratio of strong and elite rushers). Bust rates increase to 60%, but mid-round salaries are cheap, so it appears teams are better off spending several middle round picks on high-risk/high-reward prospects than trying to get the highly touted player.