Reports say that the Cardinals (despite having clear quarterback issues) were one of the few teams (along with the Cowboys and Seahawks) not at Geno Smith's pro day. Why wouldn't they go? 3 suggestions have been given:
1. They are genuinely not interested
2. They are throwing up smokescreens, but are interested
3. They simply don't think pro days are a valuable research tool
I think option 3 can be thrown out immediately. When every other team, including teams with top notch quarterbacks, shows up, this doesn't add up. The Cardinals are trying to show disinterest, but why so blatantly? Consider the recent moves in free agency:
a. The Bills cut Ryan Fitzpatrick and have nothing going for them
b. The Jets can't be all that excited about Mark Sanchez and are high enough (and have shown a willingness) to make a move
c. The Vikings may be looking for a new player and just traded Percy Harvin for the 25th pick to go with their 23rd pick
Suppose we're pretty sure the the Bills will take Geno Smith if he's there at 8.
In scenario 1, another team could trade to 7 to get Smith. The Jets just need to package a 4th rounder with their 9th, and the Vikings 23rd and 25th comes out just about equal to the 7th pick in draft capital. The Cardinals would like to trade back if a top offensive tackle is no longer available. It's important others believe the Cardinals will not take Geno, otherwise they would trade higher up and the Cardinals don't get to trade back.
In scenario 2, everything lines up the same, but the Cardinals take Geno Smith. Here it's important everyone thought they wouldn't, otherwise they could trade up past the Cardinals.
If other teams think the Cardinals will take Geno Smith, all trade leverage is lost and there's a good chance someone else will trade up and beat them to Geno if they really wanted him.
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