We learned last year that trades for specific players are more and more likely. While draft capital is considered about the same as before, the rookie wage scale makes the financial commitment given to a player a couple spots ahead negligible. In the old days, moving up a few spots not only cost draft picks, it cost millions a year. This was not a risk most teams were willing to take. Now, we need to figure possible trades into the mock draft since they have not only become possible, they have become likely. Since the top of the draft often features multiple players at the same positions, it's unlikely we'll see a trade into the top 5.
Kansas City is on the clock. They have a clear need at QB, however there's no consensus top-notch prospect. Geno Smith and Matt Barkley are the only 1st-round prospects per current analysis, and both are terrible fits for blustery, cold winters. Neither is considered a sure-fire top pick. However, both are good fits for a west coast scheme that Andy Reid is likely to bring with him. The draft is loaded with pass rushers and defensive linemen, and there are two very good offensive tackles who could merit a top pick.
1. Kansas City Chiefs - Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
Teams want to capitalize on high picks and fill positions where prime talent is taken early. There's no such QB here, and the Chiefs are already set on their offensive line and pass rushers. Lotulelei has a chance to be a Haloti Ngata-type impact player on the line, and Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson never quite reached expectations. Their rookie contracts are coming to a close, and it's probably time to upgrade on the defensive line.
2a. Jacksonville Jaguars - Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M
2b. Jacksonville Jaguars - Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
The Jaguars would also love to solve their quarterback woes, but their high pick also comes a year late. The Jaguars have a ton of problems, but Chad Henne is decent stopgap. Their leading sack producer was DT Tyson Alualu, and their top defensive end had 3. This is simply unacceptable, so they pick between the top 2 prospects Moore and Jarvis Jones. Moore profiles better as a 4-3 DE. The Jaguars also gave up 50 sacks over the season and Maurice Jones-Drew's 2 backups combined for 2 games with over 50 yards rushing after he was injured. Both issues could be addressed by taking Joeckel.
3a. Oakland Raiders - Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georiga
3b. Oakland Raiders - Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
3c. Oakland Raiders - Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
The Raiders lack an impact pass rusher as well, and Jones is the other elite prospect. This pick could go several ways. Richard Seymour is getting old, but he should be replaceable next year with a mid-1st pick. There's an outside chance they'll pick a disruptive 4-3 DT like Richardson to groom behind him (or pair with him). Their running game wasn't great, but everyone not named Darren McFadden ran fairly effectively. Their offense threw for a lot of yards, gave up about an average number of sacks, but scored few touchdowns. There isn't a game-changing wide receiver to select from, Carson Palmer is still their guy and their offensive line seems adequate but an infusion of top talent would likely boost their offense. The Raiders are in a good spot: between Moore, Jones and Joeckel they are guaranteed to get an impact player. Given the level to which their previous regime depleted their draft capital, they may want to trade back, though I don't think any team that could afford to trade up to this spot needs to do so. The Eagles may consider picking up Jones and using him like Denver uses Von Miller, but they should also be happy to land a replacement for the likely-done Jason Peters, and at least one of these guys should still be on the board at 4.
4a. Philadelphia Eagles - Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
4b. Philadelphia Eagles - Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
4c. Philapdelphia Eagles - Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio St
The Eagles need to shore up their line. The loss of Jason Peters was a huge blow to the team and given his injury and subsequent reinjury, I don't think they can count on him coming back at full capacity. If Joeckel is gone, they can consider Tyler Lewan from Michigan, the next best tackle. The Eagles also took a huge step down in sack production, which Jones would help with. If both are off the board, they could pair a big body like Hankins with Fletcher Cox and copy the Williams wall from the Vikings' days as a dominant run defense. Foles is probably their man going forwards, so QB is not interesting here.
5a. Detroit Lions - Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
5b. Detroit Lions - Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU
5c. Detroit Lions - Bjoern Werner, DE, FSU
The Lions are a statistical enigma. They threw for over 5000 yards, didn't take a ton of sacks, yet only converted that into 22 touchdowns. Their defense was mid-pack in yards, yet they gave up huge points. Their running game stands out for its lack of production. This is partly a result of their almost 2:1 pass:run ratio, but they also didn't run for good average when they did hand the ball off. Chance Warmack will instantly make their line a force and bring balance to the offense, though picking a guard at 5 is unprecedented (the Cardinals took Leonard Davis at 2, but played him at tackle). Cliff Avril, Ndamokung Suh and Nick Fairley are all productive players, but Kyle VandenBosch is getting old. A replacement for him could be prudent as well. Mingo has the higher physical upside, Werner has the better build for a 4-3 and a good body of college production.
6a. Cleveland Browns - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
6b. Cleveland Browns - Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
6c. Cleveland Browns - Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
6d. New York Jets - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
6e. New York Jets - Bjoern Werner, DE, FSU
The Browns cleaned house in the front office, so loyalty to Brandon Weeden is gone. While he flashed some good play, he's nowhere near solidifying his status as the quarterback of the future. Chip Kelly is rumored to be the front-runner for the new coaching job, and his system requires a mobile quarterback. Concerns over Geno Smith's bad-weather performance remain, but the temptation might be too high. They could also give Weeden and Trent Richardson help by improving the run game. Warmack would be a big upgrade to the line and could help create holes for Richardson. The Browns could also invest in a disruptive lineman to pair with big Phil Taylor. Sheldon Richardson should fit this bill perfectly and should improve both their pass and run defense. The Jets are looking to move on from Mark Sanchez, and there's no way they can think Greg McElroy is their future. It would only cost them about a 3rd rounder to move up here from 9, and the Jets have shown they are willing to make big moves. The Jets also need another impact pass rusher to match with Quinton Coples (who seemed to come on at the end of the season), and they could pre-emptively move up to pick Werner.
7a. Arizona Cardinals - Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
7b. Arizona Cardinals - Bjoern Werner, DE, FSU
7c. Arizona Cardinals - Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
7d. New York Jets - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
The Cardinals can go a lot of different ways with this pick. Conventional wisdom says they need a quarterback, but I think the organization and coaching front-runner Ray Horton both believe in Kolb. Furthermore, their defense is good enough that they just need to score 20 a game to be competitive. The Cardinals got a lot of sacks as a team, but their top pass rusher was a blitzing Darryl Washington. None of their outside linebackers provided a consistent pass rush, and Werner would likely be a force for the team. The team could also look at replacements for Darnell Dockett who was limited this year with lingering injuries and is definitely getting older and not as good a fit for the Cardinals' 3-4. Sheldon Richardson is potentially interesting if he's still on the board, but I think the team feels ok with Dave Carter in the lineup if Dockett is gone or loses effectiveness. The absolutely clearest hole is the play of the offensive line. The big question is how the team feels about Levi Brown. He'll likely be back at full strength, but his new contract suggests no one thinks he's an upper echelon pass protector. Lewan is almost certainly a big upgrade. The team should also look at Chance Warmack (and rely on Brown/Nate Potter who played solidly down the stretch) to boost their woeful run game. Since Arizona has multiple options, a trade back to 9 would be attractive for them since one of their good options would still be on the board. Moving up to 7 to ensure they get Smith would only cost the Jets a 3rd/4th swap.
8a. Buffalo Bills - Manti T'eo, ILB, Notre Dame
8b. Minnesota Vikings - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
The Bills have a lot of money invested in their defensive line. They are producing sacks, but not stopping the run well. They need a great linebacker to clean up running plays. T'eo appears to be in the Brian Urlacher mold and could be a cornerstone of this defense for a decade. I'm not sure they should be looking at anyone else. I don't really think the Vikings would move up from the low 20s to 8 for Smith, but they are the one other team left who might be interested. Christian Ponder appears to be plateauing and playing in a dome alleviates Smith's bad weather concerns. It's more likely that they'd be equally interested in Barkley though, and would wait until one of the two top quarterbacks is off the board, then jump up to grab the other. The only other interested teams have already picked and wouldn't have the draft capital to trade back up this high. They're more likely to target a move from the early 2nd into the mid-late 1st round, much like what the Browns did for Brady Quinn in 2007.
9a. New York Jets - Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU
9b. New York Jets - Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio St
9c. Cleveland Browns - Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
9d. Arizona Cardinals - Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
Assuming the Jets elect to address their quarterback issues in free agency, they would not trade up for Geno Smith. They need more pass rush production to maximize the impact their excellent secondary can make. They were also pretty bad against the run this year, which a big run-stuffer like Hankins should help with. If the Bills don't take T'eo, the Jets should snatch him up. He's versatile and both Bart Scott and Calvin Pace are winding their careers down. The Jets need to get some marquee guys in the front seven. The Jets actually need playmakers on offense (Jeremy Kerley was their top receiver and Shonn Greene failed to hit 4.0 yards per carry), but there aren't any worth taking this early. If he's on the board, Warmack could be interesting to help their ground game and get them back to what they did so well just a couple years ago. Trades up are hard to evaluate since the pool of possibilities grows so rapidly once we get out of the blue chip range.
10. Tennessee Titans - Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
The Titans have problems all around. The finished outside the top 20 in both passing and running defense AND offense. Jake Locker is still their guy for now. They can go in almost any direction here. They have a number of solid pass rushers that would be hard to upgrade with the top prospects off the board. The could look at T'eo or Alec Ogletree to add some playmaking in their linebacker corps. But, they would probably benefit the most from a playmaker in the secondary since they gave up 31 passing touchdowns.
Obviously lots will change between now and April. The draftniks are going to be hard at work after bowl season and I'll probably look at this list again if there are any big changes. Of course the scouting combine plays heavily into the evaluation as well and could provide another big flux. Finally, I'll need to re-evaluate needs after free agency plays out.
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