Saturday, November 5, 2011

Building Through the Draft

General wisdom tells us that filling too many positions with free agents and trades is expensive and unsustainable; teams need to build rosters through the draft. So, which teams have done a good job of that? The answers may surprise you!

For this study, I've charted all 1st and 2nd round picks between 2006 and 2010, whether they made a Pro Bowl, start, play as backups and if they're still on their original team. A successful pick is one that starts for his original team, and teams get bonus accolades for Pro Bowl picks. I've chosen to focus on the top 2 rounds because a quick survey of 3rd round picks reveals a pretty consistent stream of backups and misses. And, anecdotes tell us a team needs to make its first pair of picks count.

I'll start by throwing out some general numbers to show what the average level of success (and failure) is across the 319 qualifying picks:
1. 51% (162) of the picks start on their original team
2. 13% (41) picks are Pro Bowlers on their original team
3. 33% (106) of the picks are no longer with their team
4. 16% (52) of the the picks are no longer playing in the NFL
5. Teams keep over 83% starters they drafted

Keeping those trends in mind, let's see who has fared well in drafting starters. Here is the list, sorted by current drafted starters. Pro Bowl selections are in parentheses.

TeamStarters (PB)PicksSuccess Rate
Kansas City8 (3)1173
New York Jets7 (3)1070
San Francisco7 (2)1070
Cincinnati7 (0)1070
New York Giants7 (0)1164
Detroit7 (2)1354
Carolina6 (3)1060
Atlanta6 (1)1060
Cleveland6 (1)1250
New England6 (2)1346
Washington5 (1)771
San Diego5 (1)771
Houston5 (3)863
New Orleans5 (1)863
Baltimore5 (2)956
Jacksonville5 (1)956
Oakland5 (0)956
Arizona5 (0)1050
St Louis5 (0)1050
Minnesota5 (1)1145
Tampa Bay5 (1)1145
Green Bay5 (2)1242
Miami5 (1)1242
Dallas4 (2)850
Pittsburgh4 (2)850
Tennessee4 (2)944
Chicago3 (1)650
Indianapolis3 (0)933
Philadelphia3 (1)1030
Seattle3 (0)1030
Buffalo3 (1)1225
Denver3 (1)1421

There's a pretty amazing spread of success. Some teams are hitting on 70 percent or more of their picks, while others miss that often. Some of the numbers fly in the face of convention. Some explain team and divisional trends. Let's call a few out!

San Francisco is the only NFC West team to start a Pro Bowler they have drafted in the last 5 years. In fact, they have 2. They also have at least 2 more drafted starters than their division rivals. The 49ers are actually the best impact drafting team in the NFC. How many people have you heard say that before?

The 2 best teams in the NFL are the Jets and Chiefs. This may not surprise some people, but a few teams that are regularly praised don't quite play out how we'd expect. Baltimore, Green Bay and New England all hover around an average success rate, though they all get credit for hitting on multiple Pro Bowlers. Turns out New England doesn't spend draft capital particularly efficiently, they are just masters at having more to spend than almost anyone else. Only Detroit and Denver have had as many picks. The Lions spent them wisely, but the Broncos splurged for all the wrong stuff. They edge out the Bills as the worst drafting team over the last 5 years. You'll notice both teams have eroded and have more questions than answers.

Draft gurus regularly beat up Washington for trading away future picks, but the Redskins are the most efficient drafting team in the NFL. They've brought in a league-average number of starters with the fewest picks, and hit on a Pro Bowler as well. 2011 pick Ryan Kerrigan is off to a good start too. San Diego and Houston achieved similar results with relatively few picks, and the Texans join the Chiefs, Jets and Panthers as the only teams to have drafted 3 Pro Bowlers.

Despite the average being 1.3 Pro Bowlers per team, 7 teams (Cincinnati, New York Giants, Arizona, St Louis, Oakland, Indianapolis, Seattle) aren't starting a single Pro Bowl player they've drafted. Bill Polian has a good reputation for evaluating personnel, but his leadership has achieved a bottom-5 effort, and perhaps it's not surprising that Peyton Manning's absence is proving just how porous the Colts' talent base is.

I've wanted this list for a while so I could see how teams really are doing in the draft. I'm a firm believer that picks made in rounds 3 and on yield impact players so rarely that it's effectively just luck. Rounds 1 and 2 are where teams have be smart, scout well and take advantage of available impact talent.

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