The Outside Linebacker Smell Test

No, this isn't a deodorant commercial.

There's a lot of debate every year heading into the draft about how to select the next great pass rusher. Do you take college production? Raw potential? One-year wonders? Can a non-stop motor make up for limited physical skills?

The numbers are a little spotty because not all players run every event, but over the last 10 years virtually all Pro Bowl 3-4 outside linebackers have elite measurables in a number of combine events:

40 time of 4.64 or better

10 second split of 1.62 or better

Broad jump of 10' or better

Vertical of 38" or better

There are remarkably few exceptions to these rules.

Julian Peterson ran a 4.68, Terrell Suggs ran a 4.81. Neither had any other measurement available.

Clay Matthews's vertical was only 35.5", but his 10-yard split was the fastest of the group at 1.49

Of course plenty of players have similar measurables and never work out ("Vernon Gholston" should be familiar somehow). It's interesting to note that bench press and 3-cone seem unrelated to future success.

A similar list can be constructed for 4-3 defensive ends, and the values don't look too much different:

40 time of 4.68 or better*

Vertical of 37" or better**

Broad jump of 9'9 or better

10-yard splits are far too sparse to call out values
* There is a group in the 4.70-4.76 who are notorious motor guys (J.Allen, K.Vanden Bosch, A.Kampman, A.Schobel).
** Allen and Kampman posted verticals of only 33"

A followup post will evaluate this year's prospects against these guidelines.