I've written several times about an alternate approach to the college football playoff, and even outlined how it would have been more relevant last year. Time to do the same again as Stanford is beating down Iowa. For the record, here are the 6 BCS bowls, as played:
#1 Clemson vs #4 Oklahoma, 37-17, in the Orange Bowl **
#2 Alabama vs #3 Michigan St, 38-0, in the Cotton Bowl **
#5 Stanford vs #6 Iowa, 45-16, in the Rose Bowl
#7 Ohio State vs #8 Notre Dame, 44-28, in the Fiesta Bowl
#9 Florida State vs #18 Houston, 24-38, in the Peach Bowl
#12 Ole Miss vs #16 Oklahoma St, 48-20, in the Sugar Bowl
** - National championship game semifinal
Between scheduling and playing, all but one of these games were either blowouts or featured teams well outside of the top 12 teams in the country. Ohio St vs Notre Dame was the only decent game featuring teams with legitimate claims to a BCS bowl. Why is Houston or Oklahoma more deserving than #10 North Carolina and #11 TCU? Flipping it around, why is Ole Miss more deserving than Michigan or Northwestern?
To look at the what-if games, let's remind ourselves of the traditional bowl affiliations:
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs at-large
Cotton Bowl: Big-12 champ vs SEC
Rose Bowl: Pac-12 champ vs Big Ten champ
Peach Bowl: SEC vs ACC
Sugar Bowl: SEC champ vs at-large
Fiesta Bowl: Pac-12 vs at-large
And remind ourselves of the top teams and Power 5 conference champs (in bold):
1. Clemson (ACC) 13-0
2. Alabama (SEC) 12-1
3. Michigan St (Big Ten) 12-1
4. Oklahoma (Big 12) 11-1
5. Iowa (Big Ten) 12-1
6. Stanford (Pac-12) 11-2
7. Ohio St (Big Ten) 11-2
8. Notre Dame (Ind) 10-2
9. Florida St (ACC) 10-2
10. North Carolina (ACC) 11-2
11. TCU (Big 12) 10-2
12. Ole Miss (SEC) 9-3
13. Northwestern (Big Ten) 10-2
14. Michigan (Big Ten) 9-3
15. Oregon (Pac-12) 9-3
16. Oklahoma St (Big 12) 10-2
17. Baylor (Big 12) 9-3
18. Houston (American) 12-1
Unlike many previous years, there isn't a highly ranked true outsider (like Boise St, TCU and Hawaii in the latter part of the previous decade). Using the affiliations as guidelines, we get partial games:
#1 Clemson vs at-large in the Orange Bowl
#2 Alabama vs at-large in the Sugar Bowl
#3 Michigan St vs #6 Stanford in the Rose Bowl
#4 Oklahoma vs SEC in the Cotton Bowl
at-large vs #15 Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl
SEC vs #9 Florida St in the Peach Bowl
Oregon is a stretch to make a BCS game, so we should consider swapping in a significantly more deserving non-Pac-12 team. We also don't have 3 deserving SEC teams for their 3 traditional slots. We now have to dole out the remaining teams in the at-large pool while maintaining high-caliber matchups to help get a real feel of how these teams rank against each other. Clemson already played Notre Dame so we don't want a rematch. The simplest thing would be to have Iowa play Clemson and Ohio State play Alabama. This gives us a rare chance to evaluate three conference champs against clearly comparable teams:
#1 Clemson vs #5 Iowa in the Orange Bowl
#2 Alabama vs #6 Ohio St in the Sugar Bowl
#3 Michigan St vs #6 Stanford in the Rose Bowl
#4 Oklahoma vs SEC in the Cotton Bowl
at-large vs #15 Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl
SEC vs #9 Florida St in the Peach Bowl
The next teams on the list are Notre Dame, North Carolina and TCU. Ole Miss is the only SEC team left, and their overall ranking suggests they should go to the Peach Bowl instead of the Cotton Bowl. Thus, the SEC should lose their Cotton Bowl spot in favor of a more deserving team. Oklahoma is realistically very far on the outside looking in already, so "only" getting Notre Dame is ok. And thus, the BCS bowls become:
#1 Clemson vs #5 Iowa in the Orange Bowl
#2 Alabama vs #7 Ohio St in the Sugar Bowl
#3 Michigan St vs #6 Stanford in the Rose Bowl
#4 Oklahoma vs #8 Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl
#10 North Carolina vs #15 Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl
#12 Ole Miss vs #9 Florida St in the Peach Bowl
It features 11 of the top 12 teams in theoretically competitive matchups (though of course we don't know how any of these would actually turn out). Oregon has clearly the weakest resume and I wouldn't really argue against swapping in another team (TCU, Northwestern or Michigan, or Houston), but it's at the tail anyways so it's not going to affect the championship game. If Clemson and Alabama both win, the decision is easy. If either (or both) lose, it gets progressively more complicated, of course. But let's remember: every game should count!
If we accept that only a conference champ should even be in the national championship game conversation, the above essentially plays like the playoff, but gives Stanford the slightest glimmer of hope if they win big and every other top seed loses. I think a non-zero claim to the championship game is legit in that case because the overall records differentiate less, and Stanford would have beaten the top Big Ten team (while Clemson and Alabama would have lost to comparable, but technically lesser, ones).
Realistically this year it all worked out the way it "should have" considering Alabama and Clemson were the clear top two. But, we'd hopefully see a few more competitive games along the way.
#1 Clemson vs #4 Oklahoma, 37-17, in the Orange Bowl **
#2 Alabama vs #3 Michigan St, 38-0, in the Cotton Bowl **
#5 Stanford vs #6 Iowa, 45-16, in the Rose Bowl
#7 Ohio State vs #8 Notre Dame, 44-28, in the Fiesta Bowl
#9 Florida State vs #18 Houston, 24-38, in the Peach Bowl
#12 Ole Miss vs #16 Oklahoma St, 48-20, in the Sugar Bowl
** - National championship game semifinal
Between scheduling and playing, all but one of these games were either blowouts or featured teams well outside of the top 12 teams in the country. Ohio St vs Notre Dame was the only decent game featuring teams with legitimate claims to a BCS bowl. Why is Houston or Oklahoma more deserving than #10 North Carolina and #11 TCU? Flipping it around, why is Ole Miss more deserving than Michigan or Northwestern?
To look at the what-if games, let's remind ourselves of the traditional bowl affiliations:
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs at-large
Cotton Bowl: Big-12 champ vs SEC
Rose Bowl: Pac-12 champ vs Big Ten champ
Peach Bowl: SEC vs ACC
Sugar Bowl: SEC champ vs at-large
Fiesta Bowl: Pac-12 vs at-large
And remind ourselves of the top teams and Power 5 conference champs (in bold):
1. Clemson (ACC) 13-0
2. Alabama (SEC) 12-1
3. Michigan St (Big Ten) 12-1
4. Oklahoma (Big 12) 11-1
5. Iowa (Big Ten) 12-1
6. Stanford (Pac-12) 11-2
7. Ohio St (Big Ten) 11-2
8. Notre Dame (Ind) 10-2
9. Florida St (ACC) 10-2
10. North Carolina (ACC) 11-2
11. TCU (Big 12) 10-2
12. Ole Miss (SEC) 9-3
13. Northwestern (Big Ten) 10-2
14. Michigan (Big Ten) 9-3
15. Oregon (Pac-12) 9-3
16. Oklahoma St (Big 12) 10-2
17. Baylor (Big 12) 9-3
18. Houston (American) 12-1
Unlike many previous years, there isn't a highly ranked true outsider (like Boise St, TCU and Hawaii in the latter part of the previous decade). Using the affiliations as guidelines, we get partial games:
#1 Clemson vs at-large in the Orange Bowl
#2 Alabama vs at-large in the Sugar Bowl
#3 Michigan St vs #6 Stanford in the Rose Bowl
#4 Oklahoma vs SEC in the Cotton Bowl
at-large vs #15 Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl
SEC vs #9 Florida St in the Peach Bowl
Oregon is a stretch to make a BCS game, so we should consider swapping in a significantly more deserving non-Pac-12 team. We also don't have 3 deserving SEC teams for their 3 traditional slots. We now have to dole out the remaining teams in the at-large pool while maintaining high-caliber matchups to help get a real feel of how these teams rank against each other. Clemson already played Notre Dame so we don't want a rematch. The simplest thing would be to have Iowa play Clemson and Ohio State play Alabama. This gives us a rare chance to evaluate three conference champs against clearly comparable teams:
#1 Clemson vs #5 Iowa in the Orange Bowl
#2 Alabama vs #6 Ohio St in the Sugar Bowl
#3 Michigan St vs #6 Stanford in the Rose Bowl
#4 Oklahoma vs SEC in the Cotton Bowl
at-large vs #15 Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl
SEC vs #9 Florida St in the Peach Bowl
The next teams on the list are Notre Dame, North Carolina and TCU. Ole Miss is the only SEC team left, and their overall ranking suggests they should go to the Peach Bowl instead of the Cotton Bowl. Thus, the SEC should lose their Cotton Bowl spot in favor of a more deserving team. Oklahoma is realistically very far on the outside looking in already, so "only" getting Notre Dame is ok. And thus, the BCS bowls become:
#1 Clemson vs #5 Iowa in the Orange Bowl
#2 Alabama vs #7 Ohio St in the Sugar Bowl
#3 Michigan St vs #6 Stanford in the Rose Bowl
#4 Oklahoma vs #8 Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl
#10 North Carolina vs #15 Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl
#12 Ole Miss vs #9 Florida St in the Peach Bowl
It features 11 of the top 12 teams in theoretically competitive matchups (though of course we don't know how any of these would actually turn out). Oregon has clearly the weakest resume and I wouldn't really argue against swapping in another team (TCU, Northwestern or Michigan, or Houston), but it's at the tail anyways so it's not going to affect the championship game. If Clemson and Alabama both win, the decision is easy. If either (or both) lose, it gets progressively more complicated, of course. But let's remember: every game should count!
If we accept that only a conference champ should even be in the national championship game conversation, the above essentially plays like the playoff, but gives Stanford the slightest glimmer of hope if they win big and every other top seed loses. I think a non-zero claim to the championship game is legit in that case because the overall records differentiate less, and Stanford would have beaten the top Big Ten team (while Clemson and Alabama would have lost to comparable, but technically lesser, ones).
Realistically this year it all worked out the way it "should have" considering Alabama and Clemson were the clear top two. But, we'd hopefully see a few more competitive games along the way.
No comments:
Post a Comment