Projecting final standings

We're now 7 weeks into the season and can get a sense of how good teams really are. Using point differential, we can project final standings, so let's see how we'd expect teams to finish. Of course there are caveats: for example this won't account for remaining strength of schedule or significant injuries, but it's something. Let's see how close to reality we get!

The model uses the very strong correlation of every 2 points differential per game with 1 game away from 8-8. Due to rounding errors, the total wins and losses in the table might not quite add up.

AFC East New England Patriots 15-1 New York Jets 12-4 Miami Dolphins 9-7 Buffalo Bills 8-8 AFC North Cincinnati Bengals 13-3 Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6 Baltimore Ravens 6-10 Cleveland Browns 6-10 AFC South Indianapolis Colts 6-10 Tennessee Titans 6-10 Houston Texans 5-11 Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12 AFC West Denver Broncos 11-5 Oakland Raiders 7-9 Kansas City Chiefs 6-10 San Diego Chargers 6-10

NFC East Philadelphia Eagles 10-6 New York Giants 9-7 Washington Redskins 7-9 Dallas Cowboys 5-11 NFC North Green Bay Packers 13-3 Minnesota Vikings 10-6 Detroit Lions 4-12 Chicago Bears 3-13 NFC South Carolina Panthers 12-4 Atlanta Falcons 11-5 New Orleans Saints 6-10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-11 NFC West Arizona Cardinals 14-2 Seattle Seahawks 10-6 St Louis Rams 7-9 San Francisco 49ers 3-13

The predictions generally feel sound, though it's unlikely that Arizona will go 9-0 the rest of the season, or that the Bears or 49ers will only win one more game. I'd also guess the Jags are trending upwards and will finish with more wins than the Texans, but the projections pass a gut check.

In the AFC playoffs we have division winners New England (bye), Cincinnati (bye), Indianapolis and Denver along with wildcards New York and Pittsburgh. The Colts would be the worst-ever division winner, but the AFC South looks to be really that bad. Looking at their schedule, their likely wins are in the last 6 weeks of the year when facing the Bucs, Jags, Texans and Titans.

In the NFC playoffs we have division winners Arizona (bye), Green Bay (bye), Carolina and Philadelphia and wildcards Atlanta and Seattle or Minnesota depending on tie-breaks. I personally feel better about Seattle's chances of getting to 10-6; the Vikings have tough games left against likely playoff teams Green Bay (twice), Atlanta, Seattle and Arizona, while St Louis and the Giants aren't easy outs either. Seattle's tough games are Arizona (twice), Minnesota, Pittsburgh and St Louis.

Tony Romo and Dez Bryant may return just in time to get the Cowboys a few wins and take them out of prime drafting territory. Early indications show 4 top-tier quarterbacks who could all go in the top 10; the rest of the top 10 is dominated by offensive tackles and defensive ends. Going from 5 wins to 7 would mean moving from picking around 3-5 to around 12-15. They'd miss out on either a blue chip player or the opportunity to wheel and deal.

San Francisco and Chicago would pick 1-2. Both have franchise quarterbacks who are underperforming. The top picks would be great opportunities to take a shot at the future. In our scenario, the Jags and Lions pick next. I think neither needs a QB so they get to make prime picks. Next come the Texans (need a qb), leaving the Cowboys to play host to a potential bidding war by quarterback-needy Cleveland and Kansas City, and maybe even New Orleans and/or San Diego if they're looking to the future. In other words, a lot rides on the draft order this year. It seems to be a rare year for quarterback talent and there's always more demand than supply. Then again, these draft player projections will change drastically by next March. They always do.