Final 2013 Mock

Time to pit my predictive skills against the experts! All relevant scouting, trades and free agent moves have been made. There's nothing left before the draft except some time. According to Bill Polian, the 1st pick is finalized about 3 days before, at which point the team with that top pick sits tight waiting for a blockbuster trade. This year, there's no chance of that happening.

In general there's a reduced chance of trades because there are few clearly superior players at impact positions. Fisher or Joeckel? Lotulelei or Floyd? Warmack or Cooper? Austin, Allen, Patterson? There are no running backs valued in the top half of the 1st, and the entire pass rushing crop has eithe production or measurable red flags. Teams are less incentivized to trade up for one of these guys because the other one is just as good. The only exceptions are Geno Smith and Dee Milliner. Milliner is a clear blue chipper, and Smith becomes enticing due to positional value.

1. Kansas City - Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A/M (+1)
Kiper's pick: Eric Fisher (+2)
McShay's pick: Eric Fisher (+2)
Mayock's pick: Eric Fisher (+2)
Everyone is saying the pick will be Luke Joeckel, but I'm hung up on Andy Reid's history. He's drafted defensive line 6 times since 1999, and offensive line once. The Chiefs' defensive line received considerable investment between Dorsey and Jackson, but neither really panned out. Defensive end is a big need, and Lotulelei has all the production and measurables a team could want. However, the impending trade of Branden Albert may force the team's hand, and according to most experts Joeckel is the most can't-miss player in this draft.

2. Jacksonville - Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan (+1)
Kiper's pick: Luke Joeckel (+2)
McShay's pick: Dion Jordan (0)
Mayock's pick: Luke Joeckel (+2)
The Jaguars have a desperate need for a pass rusher, but none of them grade out. I just don't see them taking a chance on a raw prospect like Ansah this early. Their offense is also dismal and a great blocker should pay dividends in front of MJD and their iterating quarterback position. The should strongly consider Star Lotulelei to pair with Tyson Alualu. That tandem should improve their 30th ranked run defense and also provide some pass rush.

3. Oakland - Sharrif Floyd, DE, Florida (0)
Kiper's pick: Sharrif Floyd (0)
McShay's pick: Sharrif Floyd (0)
Mayock's pick: Sharrif Floyd (0)
The Raiders lost or are losing players along their defensive line, and need quality disruptive pieces. They'd love to finally get a quarterback, but Smith just won't go this high. I think Dion Jordan is an outside possibility, but the line takes precedence.

4. Philadelphia - Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma (+2)
Kiper's pick: Lane Johnson (+2)
McShay's pick: Lane Johnson (+2)
Mayock's pick: Lane Johnson (+2)
The Eagles went big to get Jason Peters, and his time has come. They have to know that no quarterback will succeed behind a patchwork offensive line that loses one-on-one battles. Many mocks are calling for Geno Smith here, but they still have Vick's upside. Sure he's old, but they also have Dennis Dixon in that option mold.

5. Detroit - Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama (0)
Kiper's pick: Ezekiel Ansah (+2)
McShay's pick: Ezekiel Ansah (+2)
Mayock's pick: Ezekiel Ansah (+2)
The Lions have been on a roll, drafting impact players in the 1st. Despite getting good sack production, they gave up 26 passing touchdowns last year. Remember, they made a pretty big offer to Arizona to swap spots and the rights to draft Patrick Peterson. It's finally time to take a blue chip cornerback. I think they would strongly consider Chance Warmack as well to help turn all their empty yards into points. Ansah could be in play here since the Lions lost both of their top ends and Jim Schwartz is defensive guy.

6. Cleveland - Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon (+1)
Kiper's pick: Dee Milliner (0)
McShay's pick: Geno Smith (0)
Mayock's pick: Geno Smith (0)
The Browns have a great cornerback, but are still giving up lots of passing scores. They produce a pretty good number of sacks, but by committee. They need to invest in an impact pass rusher. Ray Horton is bringing a 3-4 defense with him, and Jordan is both the most proven prospect and the best fit for the scheme.
6. San Diego - Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
The Chargers are desperate to solidify their line and let Philip Rivers actually pass from a pocket. AJ Smith was never afraid to make bold moves, ... though he's gone, I think that spirit will live on. The Browns would be happy to trade back. They should be targeting either a guard or pass rusher, and both figure to be available at 11. If any of the top 3 tackles is still on the board, this trade will happen.

7. Arizona - Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama (+1)
Kiper's pick: Dion Jordan (0)
McShay's pick: Jonathan Cooper (+2)
Mayock's pick: Jonathan Cooper (+2)
The new front office believe in best player available, and new coach Arians says the line is one player away from being really good. The weakest link just so happens to be RG Adam Snyder, so Warmack upgrades a weakness to a dominant position. The Cardinals would probably be happier to get Lane Johnson or Dion Jordan to provide consistent pressure instead of them having to scheme for sacks. However, both of those guys are off the board and Warmack is the pick.

8. Buffalo - Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina (0)
Kiper's pick: Jonathan Cooper (0)
McShay's pick: Ryan Nassib (+1)
Mayock's pick: Tavon Austin (0)
Blocking is key for the Bills to keep Kevin Kolb comfortable, performing, and on the field. The Bills lost excellent guard Andy Levitre in the offseason, making this is a position of need. In past mocks I've said Buffalo should consider only the premium middle lineback prospect, but the value is no longer there. They have to focus on what they do well: run the ball. Between Te'o, Minter and Ogletree, they can pick up a quality middle linebacker in the 2nd.

9. New York Jets - DJ Fluker, OT, Alabama (0)
Kiper's pick: Barkevious Mingo (0)
McShay's pick: Tyler Eifert (0)
Mayock's pick: Dion Jordan (0)
The Jets gave up almost 3 sacks a game and need to get back to the ground and pound game that let them drag a clearly inept Mark Sanchez to the AFC championship game. The other option is Chance Warmack. The Jets have shown a consistent pattern of drafting for need, and this is what they need. Many mocks have them taking a pass rusher, but they took Coples last year and he came on towards the end of the year. Their pass defense was great as is, and their run defense probably needs an infusion in the linebacking layer.

10. Tennessee - Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah (0)
Kiper's pick: Sheldon Richardson (0)
McShay's pick: Dee Milliner (0)
Mayock's pick: Dee Milliner (0)
The Titans need to get CJ2K back on track, and the offseason acquisition of Andy Levitre should help. Jake Locker could use a down-field weapon, but we're too high to take a wide receiver in this draft. The Titans have numerous needs, and at this point Star represents too much value. Taking a risk on Ansah doesn't make a ton of sense because they already have two solid defensive ends and a linebacker who all collected 6 sacks last year.

11. San Diego - Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington (0)
Kiper's pick: DJ Fluker (+2)
McShay's pick: Luke Joeckel (+1)
Mayock's pick: Chance Warmack (0)
The Chargers missed all their chances to upgrade their line. They lost two good corners as well, so they elect to replenish that spot. The next best left tackle is Menelik Watson, and he's not even a 1st-round grade.
11. Cleveland - Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU
If the Browns traded back with San Diego, they get a player with the same upside they would have taken at 6.

12. Miami - Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU (+1)
Kiper's pick: Chance Warmack (0)
McShay's pick: DJ Fluker (0)
Mayock's pick: DJ Fluker (0)
The Dolphins got Mike Wallace and are about to get Branden Albert. They have a great pass rusher in Cameron Wake, but let's not forget he's 31 already and they have no one opposite him. Cornerback should be a consideration here too, but Ansah's upside is too much to pass up here.

13. New York Jets - Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri (+2)
Kiper's pick: Tavon Austin (0)
McShay's pick: Chance Warmack (0)
Mayock's pick: Tyler Eifert (0)
The Jets have been horrific against the run. After upgrading their offensive line in a move to get back to ground-and-pound, they can address their defense with a distruptive defensive tackle who should pay off in both facets of the defense. There's a glut of cornerbacks that they can pick from in the 2nd.

14. Carolina - Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia (0)
Kiper's pick: Star Lotulelei (+2)
McShay's pick: Star Lotulelei (+2)
Mayock's pick: Sheldon Richardson (+1)
The Panthers have a great run game, a franchise quarterback, a good pass rush, a solid run defense, and a single playmaking wide receiver entering his 13th year in the league. Steve Smith's shelf life is short and they'll need a replacement. In the meantime they can enjoy two dynamic threats.

15. New Orleans - Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU (0)
15. New Orleans - Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
Kiper's pick: Jarvis Jones (0)
McShay's pick: Barkevious Mingo (0)
Mayock's pick: Barkevious Mingo (0)
The Saints' offense has no problems and their defense is awful. They have lots of playmakers in the secondary, but it's all predicated on getting pressure up front. Mingo is still on the board and has all the physical measurables needed for the job and excelled at making splash plays. If he's off the board, Jarvis Jones is the next best option.

16. St Louis - Keenan Allen, WR, California (+1)
Kiper's pick: Kenny Vaccaro (0)
McShay's pick: Tavon Austin (+2)
Mayock's pick: Kenny Vaccaro (0)
The Rams lost their best receiver and have no one even pushing for a strong #2 role. They also need to upgrade their offensive line, but have the 22nd pick to pick up Menelik Watson, and can target a guard in the 2nd or 3rd.

17. Pittsburgh - Sylvester Williams, DE, North Carolina (0)
Kiper's pick: Tyler Eifert (0)
McShay's pick: Jarvis Jones (+2)
Mayock's pick: Jarvis Jones (+2)
The Steelers suddenly have a lot of needs: James Harrison is the biggest name, but their defensive line is eroding. Jason Worilds will be thrust into the starting pass rusher role, and this spot is great for a value pick. Williams has all the upside to be a disruptive end and help keep the defense dominant.

18. Dallas - Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas (0)
Kiper's pick: Sylvester Williams (0)
McShay's pick: Sheldon Richardson (0)
Mayock's pick: Star Lotulelei (0)
The Cowboys need to shore up their defense so they can actually finish games. Their offensive line is also suspect, but it's not quite value time to go that route.  They'd love for Vaccaro to still be on the board to help glue their secondary together, and this works out well for them.

19. New York - Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia (0)
Kiper's pick: DJ Hayden (0)
McShay's pick: Bjoern Werner (0)
Mayock's pick: Justin Pugh (+2)
The Giants are a defensive mess. They weren't producing sacks at their usual rate, and everything suffered as a result. They do still have Justin Tuck and JPP coming off the edge, so they need support in the 2nd level. Ogletree edges out Te'o due to his athleticism.

20. Chicago - Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame (0)
Kiper's pick: Manti Te'o (0)
McShay's pick: Manti Te'o (0)
Mayock's pick: Manti Te'o (0)
The Bears, despite aging, still have a great defense and a good running game .. but their passing game has been a mess despite the addition of Brandon Marshall because they still lack other legitimate threats. Scoring the top tight end in the draft gives Cutler more options. The knee-jerk reaction would be to find Brian Urlacher's replacement, but middle linebackers are easier to find in the 2nd or 3rd round.

21. Cincinnati - Cordarelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee (0)
Kiper's pick: Eddie Lacy (0)
McShay's pick: Eddie Lacy (0)
Mayock's pick: Eric Reid (0)
The Bengals are a team without real weaknesses. Their defense is better than their offense, and providing Andy Dalton with a true complement to AJ Green should help the passing game out.

22. St. Louis - Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia (x)
Kiper's pick: Cordarrelle Patterson (x)
McShay's pick: Kenny Vaccaro (x)
Mayock's pick: Alec Ogletree (x)
The Rams have a multitude of needs, mostly along the offensive line. I certainly think Menelik Watson is in play here (I don't buy that Kyle Long is a prospective tackle in the NFL and good guards can be found in the 2nd-4th rounds), but lining up Jones at the weakside linebacker spot like Denver does with Von Miller could elevate an evolving defense.

23. Minnesota - Robert Woods, WR, USC (0)
Kiper's pick: Robert Woods (0)
McShay's pick: Sylvester Williams (+1)
Mayock's pick: Cordarrelle Patterson (0)
The Vikings lost Percy Harvin and Kyle Rudolph is their only other credible receiving threat. Even with Harvin they were fairly one-dimensional and had the 2nd-worst passing offense in the league. Adrian Peterson is amazing, but he needs help. I think the Vikings take Woods over Hunter for the playmaking upside. I think Geno Smith is in play here as well; it's hard to believe Ponder is a franchise QB. The Vikings also need help in the secondary and will address that at 25.

24. Indianapolis - Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida St (+2)
Kiper's pick: Xavier Rhodes (0)
McShay's pick: DJ Hayden (0)
Mayock's pick: DJ Hayden (0)
The Colts have trouble keeping Andrew Luck upright and they have trouble running the ball. They need to invest in their line, primarily at guard. However, they also were one of the worst teams against the run and weren't great against the pass. Guards are easy to find outside the 1st and they picked up Ricky Jean Francois and Aubrayo Franklin, so they should looking for a 4-3 end to displace the disappointing Jerry Hughes.

25. Minnesota - DJ Hayden, CB, Houston (+1)
Kiper's pick: Alec Ogletree (0)
McShay's pick: Alec Ogletree (0)
Mayock's pick: Sylvester Williams (0)
The Vikings lost their only playmaking corner and need to reload. There's a glut of players ranked about equally, so look for the Vikings to try and trade back with this pick.

26. Green Bay - Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama (0)
Kiper's pick: Datone Jones (+2)
McShay's pick: Justin Pugh (0)
Mayock's pick: Eddie Lacy (0)
Not only is Aaron Rodgers the best quarterback in the NFL, he's also the best runner on his team. That needs to change. The Packers have been less consistent since parting ways with Ryan Grant. Lacy brings true 3-down credibility to the position, though it isn't consistent with the way the team has drafted in the past. They could also look at improving their line, but the value likely isn't there.

27. Houston - Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee (+1)
Kiper's pick: DeAndre Hopkins (+2)
McShay's pick: Justin Hunter (+1)
Mayock's pick: Justin Hunter (+1)
The Texans have no glaring needs, which is common for a team that made a playoff run, though their passing game changes dramatically when Andre Johnson is out. They simply need additional threats, and Hunter fits that bill.

28. Denver - Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame (0)
Kiper's pick: Tank Carradine (0)
McShay's pick: Datone Jones (+1)
Mayock's pick: Bjoern Werner (0)
After a slow start, the Broncos were the best team in the NFL, and were a small meltdown away from probably continuing to a Super Bowl championship. They can take the best player available, one of whom happens to be at a position that needs a reboot.

29. New England - Johnathan Hankins, NT, Ohio State (x)
Kiper's pick: Desmond Trufant (x)
McShay's pick: Xavier Rhodes (x)
Mayock's pick: Xavier Rhodes (x)
We're getting into tantalizing Geno Smith trade territory, and look for the Patriots to be eager partners. The Jaguars, Raiders, Eagles and Jets could all be interested parties. Absent a trade, the Pats will take the best player available at any position. It doesn't hurt that he should be a good replacement for Wilfork down the line.

30. Atlanta - Datone Jones, DE, UCLA (0)
Kiper's pick: Robert Alford (0)
McShay's pick: Desmond Trufant (+2)
Mayock's pick: Desmond Trufant (+2)
The Falcons have a surprising number of needs for a 13-win team. Their running game was unproductive, and get Steven Jackson in place of Michael Turner is a wash at best. I think they'd love to get Lacy, and there's a good chance the Packers don't pick him up. But, their defense is actually quite suspect, and a lack of strong line play has hurt them. Jones is a versatile player who can line up as either a 3-4 end or 4-3 tackle in the Falcons' shifting schemes.

31. San Francisco - Margus Hunt, DE, SMU (0)
Kiper's pick: Eric Reid (+2)
McShay's pick: Eric Reid (+2)
Mayock's pick: Zach Ertz (0)
The 49ers identity is around their defense, and Hunt has intriguing upside as a potential matchup nightmare after Justin Smith's brilliant career winds down.

32. Baltimore - Kevin Minter, ILB, LSU (0)
Kiper's pick: Kevin Minter (0)
McShay's pick: Matt Elam (+2)
Mayock's pick: Matt Elam (+2)
The Ravens lost so many impact players this offseason, and have a surprising number of needs for a Super Bowl champ. They could use help along the offensive line, in the secondary, in the pass rush and in the gaping hole left by Ray Lewis. Minter actually profiles similar to Lewis athletically, and I think the Ravens would prefer him to Te'o.

I expect to see a number of trades happen as teams target specific players. The rookie scale has made trading up less prohibitive because only draft capital is involved while salaries are kept reasonable.

Just for fun, I'll see how I do against the experts. Each correct pick for a team will be worth 2 points, 1 point credit for correct player position. Draft position is ignored-ish, for example if a team trades back 3 spots but still selects the predicted player, that's worth 2 points.

Edit, final tallies:
Me: 14 points.
Kiper: 18 points.
McShay: 25 points
Mayock: 20 points
Todd McShay is the winner, and I'm the loser. Guess I'm not ready to quit my day job just yet.

And now, we wait.