How predictable is a draft? Does one surprise pick send ripples through the rest of the selections? Does it not make as big a dent as people might expect? Does a draft-day trade also turn the experts' mocks on their head? In an effort to answer this question, I'm going to predict the outcomes given a few of the major wild cards and see what picks shake out. It's ridiculous to try and predict the entire 1st round, so I'll cut it off once the mock possibilities get too broad. Without further discussion, let's dive in:
1. Indianapolis - Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
If you can bet on this pick still, do so.
2. Washington - Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
Also a sure thing. Washington didn't give up 1st rounders in the next two drafts to not pick a quarterback. The board now has four prospects of "similar quality": Blackmon, Claiborne, Kalil and Richardson. This is where things get interesting. Rumors say the Vikings are considering three players, who should be Kalil, Blackmon and Claiborne, all of whom fit needs. Claiborne probably doesn't represent enough value to go 3rd. Blackmon doesn't fit the profile of a top-3 pick (based on size/speed). Kalil plays the most premium position and is the safest and most likely pick.
3a. Minnesota - Ryan Kalil, OT, USC
However, the Vikings are also rumored to be shopping the pick, which begs the question of who might be a willing partner. To answer this question, we need to peek at who Cleveland might take with the next pick. If the Vikings don't take Kalil, I think Cleveland considers him, but by all accounts the Browns are going for Trent Richardson. The curveball pick is Ryan Tannehill, though I don't think the Browns are going that route. So, a team would have to covet Richardson or maybe Tannehill to trade up. No team with ample ammo to move up to 3rd pick needs a running back that bad, and all have other needs. Going back to the curveball, might the Dolphins trade up to 3? They would probably need to swap 1st rounders and throw in a 2nd and 3rd (leaving them with another 3rd from the Brandon Marshall trade). Jeff Ireland has been the loser of the offseason, and he could see this as a makeup move. It's a horrible idea, but it just might happen:
3b. Miami (from Minnesota) - Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
4. Cleveland - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
As discussed before, Cleveland makes the expected pick of Trent Richardson. Some argue that Blackmon is in play (to give Colt McCoy weapons), but Cleveland has the #22 and #37 picks as well and can use those on playmakers. Richardson is far and away the best back in the draft, he doesn't fumble, he's not a diva: he'll make Browns fans forget about Peyton Hillis's good days.
5. Tampa Bay - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
The Bucs got a premier receiver in free agency, have a solid run game, and a promising young quarterback. They will be looking to get better on defense. They spent their last pair of 1st and 2nd picks on their defensive line. Since they run a 4-3, that same line needs to be generating pressure. Linebackers in this configuration don't have this much positional value, nor do safeties. Any other team wanting Claiborne would have to leapfrog the Bucs and again we run into positional value issues mixed with prohibitive draft capital cost. In scenario B, Kalil is still on the board and should be considered as the best player available, but the Bucs also invested heavily in their line this off-season. Claiborne is the pick.
6a. St Louis - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma St
6b. St Louis - Ryan Kalil, OT, USC
The Rams sit tight at 6 and land a great player at a position of need. This is the first ripple effect in the draft. In scenario B the Rams have to pull the trigger on Kalil. They have to be honest about the fact that their line did not hold up last season and that Jason Smith isn't reliable enough in either performance or health to move forward with. In scenario A, the Rams get the top weapon for Sam Bradford. If Steve Smith can return to health, this will be a formidable duo. I don't think the Rams would trade down in either case.
7a. Jacksonville - Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
7b. Jacksonville - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma St
The Jaguars were top-10 in both passing and rushing defense, so the emphasis should be on offense, right? In scenario B, this plays out and they get a top-tier playmaker for Blaine Gabbert. They can then move Mike Thomas back to the slot and still use a mid-round pick to bolster their crew if they want. In scenario A they get to bolster the pass rush which was that defense's weak point. Could the Jags make an unexpected pick? They could go with Coples instead of Ingram, but that's an essentially equivalent pick. They could reach for Michael Floyd if Blackmon is off the board. The Jags have reached big in the past for a player they liked at a position of need (ex: Tyson Alualu) so this isn't out of the question. Could they be a trade partner? Scenario A leaves some possibilities open. Conventional wisdom says Blaine Gabbert is a bust, so perhaps the Jags go for Tannehill? Or maybe some other team wants Tannehill enough to jump over the Dolphins? Or maybe the Dolphins don't want to risk getting leapfrogged and swap spots with the Jags? I don't see the Jags replacing a project quarterback after one year with another project quarterback, so let's suppose they don't pick Tannehill. This still leaves trade questions open. Rumor has it Kansas City is interested in Tannehill, but this doesn't make sense. Matt Cassell has been up and down, but I just don't see the Chiefs going this route. Since we came to this conclusion, let's assume Miami does too and stays put.
8a. Miami - Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
8b.1. Minnesota - Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
The draft plays out as Miami had hoped and they land their bust of the future. Oops, quarterback of the future. They aren't likely to trade down and risk not getting the player they wanted. Thinking back a few years ago, the Fins passed on Brady Quinn and reached for Ted Ginn, so there's precedent for a reach for Michael Floyd as well. In scenario B, the Vikings are left with either Riley Reiff, a reach for Michael Floyd, or the top defensive line prospect. Though cornerback is a need for them, no remaining prospect projects this high. Reiff is the pick if need factors in strongly, otherwise they should take Ingram to take the pressure off Jared Allen or Fletcher Cox to reload their impressive defensive line. Historically, the Vikings haven't used a 1st rounder on their offensive line in 10 years, their receiving corp isn't horribly bad so I think they bolster their pass rush in an effort to give the rest of their defense some relief. Again, I'm considering Coples and Ingram interchangeable. The Vikings may entertain trade offers, but they probably use this spot to pick a highly rated prospect.
8b.2. Minnesota - Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
At this point we see both scenarios with the same 8 teams picking and the same 8 players off the board, so we're back to the same single scenario going forward. I've noted in both picks of Ingram that Coples could be the pick instead. We also see Brockers, Cox and Poe being potentially interchangeable picks. For fun, I'll add the more likely alternate pick as scenario C.
9a.1,b.1.1,b.2.1. Carolina - Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi St.
The Panthers go with a big run-stuffer in the middle of their defense. Their offense was humming last year, but the defense was giving up too many points and yards. They could also go with a defensive end since they only had one solid pass rusher last year. Carolina is in a great spot to trade, and both Kansas City and Philadelphia should want Luke Kuechly. The Chiefs can trade up for about a 4th, whereas the Eagles have a bonus 2nd from the Kolb trade to play with. The Chiefs are run by Scott Pioli who has history with the Patriots and we usually see them trading down, not up. I think there's a decent chance the Eagles make the Panthers and offer they can't refuse and jump the Chiefs.
9a.2,b.1.2,b.2.2. Philadelphia (from Carolina) - Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College.
10b.2. Buffalo - Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
10rest. Buffalo - Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
Buffalo wins in all cases. Probably they'll get Reiff who fills a desperate need. Their off-season has amped up their defensive line which should help all aspects of their defense. We've absolutely seen them make luxury picks and Floyd would fit that bill, though pairing him with Steve Johnson should elevate the passing game from average to good. Buffalo should not be in the market to trade this pick.
11*.1. Kansas City - Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College
11*.2. Kansas City - Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis
The Chiefs need help in run support and Kuechly is their ideal guy. If the Eagles jump them and select him, the Chiefs look to land a nose tackle with major upside to replace Kelly Gregg. Poe could be a disruptive player in the Vince Wilfork mold if he pans out, and would form a formidable front line when paired with Tamba Hali and promising Justin Houston. Quality inside linebackers can be found in the 2nd and 3rd round, so getting an impact pick is the goal. The Chiefs should not trade down if Kuechly is on the board (if they do, the Eagles will definitely jump up for him), and Poe becomes enticing as a value pick outside the top 10.
12*.1. Seattle - Dont'a Hightower, LB, Alabama
12*.2. Seattle - Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
Pete Carroll likes players with unusual size, and both options fit the bill. Losing David Hawthorne hurts and Hightower could replace him, though again quality middle linebackers can be found in later rounds. Losing Red Bryant during the season clearly affected Seattle's defense. He probably doesn't have many good seasons left in him so finding an impact disruptive defensive tackle could fit the bill. Trade scenarios could crop up to get Michael Floyd here with speculation that the Cardinals might take him at 13. The Jets, Bengals and Chargers could all be interested, though the Chargers and Bengals probably have more pressing needs. The Jets have Burress and Holmes, though both players have had their issues on the team. Trading up would probably cost them their 3rd and they have no 4th, but those picks are hard to turn into meaningful picks anyways. The Jets should really be looking for help at right tackle though and should stay put and take the best available tackle when their turn comes.
The picks start to get too spread out to track well, but this gives us an idea of some scenarios that might unfold. Interestingly, it doesn't seem like Tannehill has the power to seriously alter the draft landscape. Mostly he just has the ability to make the Dolphins panic into overpaying for him. Of course this assumes that he doesn't fall past Miami in any scenario. Interestingly, it seems the biggest ripple may be caused by which team reaches for Floyd first. He could push Tannehill down the board. If Buffalo takes Floyd with Reiff on the board, Reiff becomes an attractive target for the Seahawks and won't fall past Arizona. In such a scenario, Tannehill could slide all the way to the Browns at #25, or beyond.
Friday, April 20, 2012
Saturday, March 3, 2012
Combine Losers: Pass Rushers
Great pass rushers are a scarce commodity. All year long their game tape, hype and production piles up, but it can be hard to project dominance to the next level. The scouting combine offers some hints and glimpses, though I would argue that far too many cases of combine-induced stock rises are fraudulent. This year's list of defensive end and outside linebacker candidates' performances weren't spectacular so teams shouldn't be climbing the draft boards to land them. In fact, I would argue that teams should be downright weary of this group.
A past post examined the measurables that almost all future Pro Bowl pass rushers had in common. Let's take a look at this year's top prospects (per Mel Kiper's top 5 at each position)through the same perspective. The following table highlights 40 yard dash, vertical and broad jump results. I've highlighted each value in green, yellow or red to indicate if the value meets guidelines, misses but has precedent for success, or no player with this measurable has become a Pro Bowler, respectively. 10 yard splits were not yet available but are also an important indicator. I'll try to update the table when those become available.
In short, most of the top prospects failed the combine. All but two players have at least one measurable that is worse than that of any Pro Bowler in the last decade. Nick Perry from USC is the only prospect with a green light across the board, and he's not in Mel's Top 5 (though other draftniks consider him a fringe 1st rounder). The case is similar for outside linebacker prospects: Demario Davis, Ark St (4.61, 10'4, 38.5) is the only player posting elite measurables in all 3 categories. He is not regarded as a great pro prospect though, so teams should regard him as an athlete who is unlikely to be a good football player.
Interestingly, two highly regarded inside linebackers posted elite scores in all 3 drills: Mychal Kendricks, Cal (4.47, 10'7, 39.5) and Luke Kuechly (4.58, 10'3, 38) are both on par with Von Miller, last year's 2nd overall pick.
Teams looking for an upgrade need to skip Coples (whose poor numbers combined with poor effort on the field paint a bad picture) and Ingram, instead taking a chance on Nick Perry, Whitney Mercilus or Bruce Irvin. Upshaw gets an incomplete but is not expected to have good measurables. His lone hope is comparisons to Terrell Suggs (who also didn't test very well), but that seems off-base as Upshaw is more of a pure power player. Teams in the top half of the draft looking for a pass rusher should trade down if possible and use their extra draft ammo to take a chance on players with upside.
A past post examined the measurables that almost all future Pro Bowl pass rushers had in common. Let's take a look at this year's top prospects (per Mel Kiper's top 5 at each position)through the same perspective. The following table highlights 40 yard dash, vertical and broad jump results. I've highlighted each value in green, yellow or red to indicate if the value meets guidelines, misses but has precedent for success, or no player with this measurable has become a Pro Bowler, respectively. 10 yard splits were not yet available but are also an important indicator. I'll try to update the table when those become available.
| Name | Position | 40 dash | Broad jump | Vertical |
| Quinton Coples | DE | 4.78 | 9'1 | 31.5 |
| Melvin Ingram | DE | 4.79 | 9'1 | 34.5 |
| Vinny Curry | DE | 4.98 | 9'2 | 32 |
| Andre Branch | DE | 4.70 | 10'0 | 32.5 |
| Whitney Mercilus | DE | 4.68 | 9'10 | 32 |
| Coutrney Upshaw | OLB | --- | --- | --- |
| Terrell Manning | OLB | 4.79 | 9'6 | 32.5 |
| Zach Brown | OLB | 4.50 | 9'8 | 33.5 |
| Lavonte David | OLB | 4.65 | 9'11 | 36.5 |
| Bruce Irvin | OLB | 4.50 | 10'3 | 33.5 |
| Nick Perry | DE | 4.64 | 10'4 | 38.5 |
In short, most of the top prospects failed the combine. All but two players have at least one measurable that is worse than that of any Pro Bowler in the last decade. Nick Perry from USC is the only prospect with a green light across the board, and he's not in Mel's Top 5 (though other draftniks consider him a fringe 1st rounder). The case is similar for outside linebacker prospects: Demario Davis, Ark St (4.61, 10'4, 38.5) is the only player posting elite measurables in all 3 categories. He is not regarded as a great pro prospect though, so teams should regard him as an athlete who is unlikely to be a good football player.
Interestingly, two highly regarded inside linebackers posted elite scores in all 3 drills: Mychal Kendricks, Cal (4.47, 10'7, 39.5) and Luke Kuechly (4.58, 10'3, 38) are both on par with Von Miller, last year's 2nd overall pick.
Teams looking for an upgrade need to skip Coples (whose poor numbers combined with poor effort on the field paint a bad picture) and Ingram, instead taking a chance on Nick Perry, Whitney Mercilus or Bruce Irvin. Upshaw gets an incomplete but is not expected to have good measurables. His lone hope is comparisons to Terrell Suggs (who also didn't test very well), but that seems off-base as Upshaw is more of a pure power player. Teams in the top half of the draft looking for a pass rusher should trade down if possible and use their extra draft ammo to take a chance on players with upside.
Monday, December 12, 2011
Inching closer to the 2012 Draft
With 3 weeks to go in the 2011 season, the draft order picture is starting to shape up! Let's check in and see how the top 10 picks might play out based on current finishing projections.
1. Indianapolis - Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
Still a sure thing.
2. St Louis - Ryan Kalil, OT, USC
The Rams continue to slide and struggle with all aspects of their offense. It's clear they can't create an effective run block or protect Sam Bradford. Kalil is the top tackle in the draft and a complete package. Jason Smith's time on the team is probably coming to and end. This is a perfect blend of value and need.
3. Minnesota - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma St
This will come down to how Blackmon grades out compared to Claiborne. It's hard to imagine the Vikings using the 3rd pick on a corner, and Blackmon seems like a sure thing from both a physical and mental perspective. I think the Vikings look to upgrade their offense and pair another playmaker with Percy Harvin.
4. Carolina - Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
I still have Carolina picking an impact defensive playmaker here. They could use help in both run and pass defense, but top-5 picks are usually reserved for defensive linemen. Coples is the only such player grading out well enough. This pick may change a lot once the scouting cranks into full gear.
5. Cleveland - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
By all accounts, Richardson is a special talent. By all statistics, the Browns have no viable running back. They've had a 100-yard runner once this year, and haven't had a 50-yard rusher in half their games. Colt McCoy may not be in Cleveland's long-term plans, but he's passable. Cleveland could opt to pick up their favorite of the remaining 3 top passing prospects, but I think they're more likely to lock up a dynamic playmaker and make a move for a quarterback later in the 1st round with the pick they received from Atlanta in the Julio Jones trade.
6. Tampa Bay - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
The Buccaneers can't stop anyone on the ground or through the air. They've invested their 1st and 2nd round picks the last 2 years on their defensive line, so it's time to build elsewhere. Claiborne will the turn the page from the Aqib Talib chapter.
7. Jacksonville - Alshon Jeffrey, WR, South Carolina
The Jaguars have the worst passing offense in the league, averaging a disheartening 140 yards per game through the air. I don't see them bailing on Blaine Gabbert yet, though his rookie year hasn't had the upside of any of his peers; Newton, Dalton, Locker, and Ponder have all shown a lot more (the last 2 without much better support). Jeffrey is probably a reach here, so trading back should be high on the Jags' list of options, especially considering all the quarterback-needy teams clamoring for the next-best choice after Andrew Luck.
8. Washington - Matt Barkley, QB, USC
The Redskins jump with joy to find an upgrade with the 8th pick. Grossman has upside and downside, and John Beck clearly didn't work out as Mike Shanahan had expected. It's time for the Redskins to move on, and this pick is perfect for them.
9. Philadelphia - Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
The Eagles still have trouble along their line, and Martin is a great find with the 9th pick. He may not be as complete as Kalil, but he's an upgrade. This is a safe pick for them.
10. Miami - Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma
Just 5 games ago the Dolphins were in contention for Andrew Luck. Their recent run has been fueled by a defense that's suddenly shutting teams down. Matt Moore has provided decent but unspectacular play. Tony Sparano is gone and new leadership won't (and probably shouldn't) be loyal. They will be happy to find a highly-rated prospect available here.
I'm expecting at least one trade into the top-10 by a team looking for a quarterback, and another swap between top-10 teams. This will be a great draft to watch!
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Week 10 Draft Peek
2 weeks have passed since the last draft peek. Miami is the big mover, playing themselves out of the likely running for Andrew Luck. Was it worth it? Let's see how the remaining games project to records, and what picks are present.
1. Indianapolis (1.8 wins) - Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford.
Speculation is rampant over whether Peyton Manning will return this season and spring Indy for a few wins and deny them the first pick, or if he'll try to talk his management out of drafting his heir. Luck simply has too much value compared to anyone else on the board, whether as the Colts' next franchise quarterback, or as tantalizing trade bait.
2. Carolina (4.0 wins) - Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
The previous mock calls for DT Brandon Thompson, but the value probably isn't there at #2. Carolina's pass rush is fairly weak as well, so a complement to Charles Johnson would have a significant impact.
3. Miami (4.3 wins) - Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma
Miami needs a franchise quarterback and will get one this draft.
4. Minnesota (4.3 wins) - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma St
Christian Ponder is progressing well, but Minnesota lacks consistent playmakers in the passing game. Morris Claiborne is a possibility as well since the Vikings have one of the worst pass defenses in the league (and their pass rush is certainly not to blame).
5. St Louis (4.3 wins) - Matt Kalil, OT, USC
The Rams sport the worst run defense in the league, so Thompson is an option here. The pick is a bit complicated since the Rams are fine with Rodger Saffold's play on the left side. The new regime admits that Jason Smith is not meeting expectation and they bring in a highly touted replacement and will let training camp work out the details of who starts where. Kalil's value is simply too high here.
6. Cleveland (5.0 wins) - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
Cleveland will likely cut ties with Peyton Hillis this off-season, leaving them no credible running threat. Richardson's upside is too high to pass on. Cleveland does have some options here. DT Thompson is a possibility to shore up their horrid run defense, but an impact offensive player is the most likely choice. WR Alshon Jeffrey is a possibility as well.
7. Arizona (5.3 wins) - Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
The Cardinals would love to swap places with the Rams, but they get the 2nd best tackle on the board. They would also consider an elite pass rusher but the one top-10 quality player is off the board already.
8. Washington (5.6 wins) - Matt Barkley, QB, USC
The Redskins inch up the draft board just enough to snag the 3rd top-rated quarterback. This season has shown that neither Beck or Grossman are convincing as starters and the Redskins are lucky to be in a position to draft a player with great growth and upside.
9. Jacksonville (5.6 wins) - Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina
The Jaguars stick to the script and pick up a big-time weapon for Blaine Gabbert. They might consider an elite pass rusher if another one demonstrates his value by the end of the college season.
10. Seattle (5.9 wins) - Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
Seattle's big win over the Ravens probably pushes them out of the running for a franchise quarterback. Their defense continues to play well every game, but their offense needs help. They are not running the ball effectively and they're giving up sacks in bunches. They've given it a fair bit of attention, but their offensive line is struggling. It needs help.
I'll continue to update the projected wins and mock draft every few weeks.
Saturday, November 5, 2011
Building Through the Draft
General wisdom tells us that filling too many positions with free agents and trades is expensive and unsustainable; teams need to build rosters through the draft. So, which teams have done a good job of that? The answers may surprise you!
For this study, I've charted all 1st and 2nd round picks between 2006 and 2010, whether they made a Pro Bowl, start, play as backups and if they're still on their original team. A successful pick is one that starts for his original team, and teams get bonus accolades for Pro Bowl picks. I've chosen to focus on the top 2 rounds because a quick survey of 3rd round picks reveals a pretty consistent stream of backups and misses. And, anecdotes tell us a team needs to make its first pair of picks count.
I'll start by throwing out some general numbers to show what the average level of success (and failure) is across the 319 qualifying picks:
1. 51% (162) of the picks start on their original team
2. 13% (41) picks are Pro Bowlers on their original team
3. 33% (106) of the picks are no longer with their team
4. 16% (52) of the the picks are no longer playing in the NFL
5. Teams keep over 83% starters they drafted
Keeping those trends in mind, let's see who has fared well in drafting starters. Here is the list, sorted by current drafted starters. Pro Bowl selections are in parentheses.
There's a pretty amazing spread of success. Some teams are hitting on 70 percent or more of their picks, while others miss that often. Some of the numbers fly in the face of convention. Some explain team and divisional trends. Let's call a few out!
For this study, I've charted all 1st and 2nd round picks between 2006 and 2010, whether they made a Pro Bowl, start, play as backups and if they're still on their original team. A successful pick is one that starts for his original team, and teams get bonus accolades for Pro Bowl picks. I've chosen to focus on the top 2 rounds because a quick survey of 3rd round picks reveals a pretty consistent stream of backups and misses. And, anecdotes tell us a team needs to make its first pair of picks count.
I'll start by throwing out some general numbers to show what the average level of success (and failure) is across the 319 qualifying picks:
1. 51% (162) of the picks start on their original team
2. 13% (41) picks are Pro Bowlers on their original team
3. 33% (106) of the picks are no longer with their team
4. 16% (52) of the the picks are no longer playing in the NFL
5. Teams keep over 83% starters they drafted
Keeping those trends in mind, let's see who has fared well in drafting starters. Here is the list, sorted by current drafted starters. Pro Bowl selections are in parentheses.
| Team | Starters (PB) | Picks | Success Rate |
| Kansas City | 8 (3) | 11 | 73 |
| New York Jets | 7 (3) | 10 | 70 |
| San Francisco | 7 (2) | 10 | 70 |
| Cincinnati | 7 (0) | 10 | 70 |
| New York Giants | 7 (0) | 11 | 64 |
| Detroit | 7 (2) | 13 | 54 |
| Carolina | 6 (3) | 10 | 60 |
| Atlanta | 6 (1) | 10 | 60 |
| Cleveland | 6 (1) | 12 | 50 |
| New England | 6 (2) | 13 | 46 |
| Washington | 5 (1) | 7 | 71 |
| San Diego | 5 (1) | 7 | 71 |
| Houston | 5 (3) | 8 | 63 |
| New Orleans | 5 (1) | 8 | 63 |
| Baltimore | 5 (2) | 9 | 56 |
| Jacksonville | 5 (1) | 9 | 56 |
| Oakland | 5 (0) | 9 | 56 |
| Arizona | 5 (0) | 10 | 50 |
| St Louis | 5 (0) | 10 | 50 |
| Minnesota | 5 (1) | 11 | 45 |
| Tampa Bay | 5 (1) | 11 | 45 |
| Green Bay | 5 (2) | 12 | 42 |
| Miami | 5 (1) | 12 | 42 |
| Dallas | 4 (2) | 8 | 50 |
| Pittsburgh | 4 (2) | 8 | 50 |
| Tennessee | 4 (2) | 9 | 44 |
| Chicago | 3 (1) | 6 | 50 |
| Indianapolis | 3 (0) | 9 | 33 |
| Philadelphia | 3 (1) | 10 | 30 |
| Seattle | 3 (0) | 10 | 30 |
| Buffalo | 3 (1) | 12 | 25 |
| Denver | 3 (1) | 14 | 21 |
There's a pretty amazing spread of success. Some teams are hitting on 70 percent or more of their picks, while others miss that often. Some of the numbers fly in the face of convention. Some explain team and divisional trends. Let's call a few out!
San Francisco is the only NFC West team to start a Pro Bowler they have drafted in the last 5 years. In fact, they have 2. They also have at least 2 more drafted starters than their division rivals. The 49ers are actually the best impact drafting team in the NFC. How many people have you heard say that before?
The 2 best teams in the NFL are the Jets and Chiefs. This may not surprise some people, but a few teams that are regularly praised don't quite play out how we'd expect. Baltimore, Green Bay and New England all hover around an average success rate, though they all get credit for hitting on multiple Pro Bowlers. Turns out New England doesn't spend draft capital particularly efficiently, they are just masters at having more to spend than almost anyone else. Only Detroit and Denver have had as many picks. The Lions spent them wisely, but the Broncos splurged for all the wrong stuff. They edge out the Bills as the worst drafting team over the last 5 years. You'll notice both teams have eroded and have more questions than answers.
Draft gurus regularly beat up Washington for trading away future picks, but the Redskins are the most efficient drafting team in the NFL. They've brought in a league-average number of starters with the fewest picks, and hit on a Pro Bowler as well. 2011 pick Ryan Kerrigan is off to a good start too. San Diego and Houston achieved similar results with relatively few picks, and the Texans join the Chiefs, Jets and Panthers as the only teams to have drafted 3 Pro Bowlers.
Despite the average being 1.3 Pro Bowlers per team, 7 teams (Cincinnati, New York Giants, Arizona, St Louis, Oakland, Indianapolis, Seattle) aren't starting a single Pro Bowl player they've drafted. Bill Polian has a good reputation for evaluating personnel, but his leadership has achieved a bottom-5 effort, and perhaps it's not surprising that Peyton Manning's absence is proving just how porous the Colts' talent base is.
I've wanted this list for a while so I could see how teams really are doing in the draft. I'm a firm believer that picks made in rounds 3 and on yield impact players so rarely that it's effectively just luck. Rounds 1 and 2 are where teams have be smart, scout well and take advantage of available impact talent.
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
Kolb's Progress
Many in Arizona are questioning the trade to get Kevin Kolb. After all, he's struggling.... right?
There are some comparisons to go against. There have been a few quarterback trades similar to the Kolb one in recent years: Matt Cassell, Jay Cutler and Brett Favre. Let's take a look at each of these and how they fared their first year in a new system.
Matt Cassell (and Mike Vrabel were traded for the Chiefs' 34th pick) was traded by the Patriots after he led them to an 11-5 record when Brady's knee was injured. Cassell completed 63% of his passes, threw for almost 3700 yards (7.16ypa) and 21 TD with only 11 interceptions and finished the season with a passer rating of 89.4. In his first year under center in Kansas City, those numbers fell to just over 2900 yards on 55% passing, 16 TD and 16 INT and a passer rating of 69.9. His yards per attempt also fell dramatically to 5.93. The Chiefs stuck with him and the next year his numbers improved to 3100 yards on 63% passing (6.92 ypa), 27 TD and a mere 7 INT and a passer rating of 93.0.
Jay Cutler (and the Broncos' 140th pick traded for Kyle Orton and the Bears' 18th and their following year's 84th pick) was jettisoned from Denver after it was clear he couldn't mesh with the team. The Bears paid a hefty price and their first year was rewarded over 3600 yards on 60% passing (6.61 ypa), 27 TD, but also 21 INT and a passer rating of 76.8. Cutler had never been very careful with the ball, but his first year completion percentage was 3 points lower than his previous 2 full seasons in Denver, his interception rate went higher (as compared to 45 vs 32), his ypa fell significantly from 7.4 and his passer rating was down about 10 points as well. The following year, he rebounded right back in line with his numbers as full-time Bronco.
Brett Favre (traded to the Jets for a 3rd round pick) was coming off one of his best seasons in Green Bay, but his indecision on retiring (or not) drove the Packers to cut ties with him and let Aaron Rodgers take over. Favre had thrown for over 4100 yards on 67% passing (7.8 ypa), 28 TD, 15 INT and a passer rating of 95.7, along with getting Green Bay to the brink of another Super Bowl appearance. In his year as a Jet, his numbers dropped significantly: under 3500 yards on 66% passing but only 6.7 ypa, 22 TD and 22 INT for a passer rating of 81.0. The verdict was that he was done, worn down, an old man ... but going to Minnesota (back to a west coast passing scheme) proved this false. He had the best statistical season of his career: 4200 yards on 68% passing, 7.9 ypa, 33 TD with only 7 INT and a passer rating of 107.2. All but the yardage and TDs were personal bests.
Kevin Kolb (traded to the Cardinals for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a 2nd round pick) was never a starter for a season, and we don't yet know what next season will bring. His stats through 7 games are 1706 yards on 57% passing, 7.5 ypa, 8 TD and 8INT for a passer rating of 77.8. Projecting those numbers to a full season gives 3900 yards, 18 TD and 18 INT (ypa and rating remain 7.5 and 77.8, respectively). He'd have the highest yardage and yards per attempt by a wide margin of this group, and his rating would be 2nd to only Favre. Cutler is the only player in the group who threw more scores than picks, and an even ratio is par for that course. Oh, and Kolb contends for the worst pass protection and weakest running game too.
I think it's time to not panic and let history calm our nerves.
There are some comparisons to go against. There have been a few quarterback trades similar to the Kolb one in recent years: Matt Cassell, Jay Cutler and Brett Favre. Let's take a look at each of these and how they fared their first year in a new system.
Matt Cassell (and Mike Vrabel were traded for the Chiefs' 34th pick) was traded by the Patriots after he led them to an 11-5 record when Brady's knee was injured. Cassell completed 63% of his passes, threw for almost 3700 yards (7.16ypa) and 21 TD with only 11 interceptions and finished the season with a passer rating of 89.4. In his first year under center in Kansas City, those numbers fell to just over 2900 yards on 55% passing, 16 TD and 16 INT and a passer rating of 69.9. His yards per attempt also fell dramatically to 5.93. The Chiefs stuck with him and the next year his numbers improved to 3100 yards on 63% passing (6.92 ypa), 27 TD and a mere 7 INT and a passer rating of 93.0.
Jay Cutler (and the Broncos' 140th pick traded for Kyle Orton and the Bears' 18th and their following year's 84th pick) was jettisoned from Denver after it was clear he couldn't mesh with the team. The Bears paid a hefty price and their first year was rewarded over 3600 yards on 60% passing (6.61 ypa), 27 TD, but also 21 INT and a passer rating of 76.8. Cutler had never been very careful with the ball, but his first year completion percentage was 3 points lower than his previous 2 full seasons in Denver, his interception rate went higher (as compared to 45 vs 32), his ypa fell significantly from 7.4 and his passer rating was down about 10 points as well. The following year, he rebounded right back in line with his numbers as full-time Bronco.
Brett Favre (traded to the Jets for a 3rd round pick) was coming off one of his best seasons in Green Bay, but his indecision on retiring (or not) drove the Packers to cut ties with him and let Aaron Rodgers take over. Favre had thrown for over 4100 yards on 67% passing (7.8 ypa), 28 TD, 15 INT and a passer rating of 95.7, along with getting Green Bay to the brink of another Super Bowl appearance. In his year as a Jet, his numbers dropped significantly: under 3500 yards on 66% passing but only 6.7 ypa, 22 TD and 22 INT for a passer rating of 81.0. The verdict was that he was done, worn down, an old man ... but going to Minnesota (back to a west coast passing scheme) proved this false. He had the best statistical season of his career: 4200 yards on 68% passing, 7.9 ypa, 33 TD with only 7 INT and a passer rating of 107.2. All but the yardage and TDs were personal bests.
Kevin Kolb (traded to the Cardinals for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a 2nd round pick) was never a starter for a season, and we don't yet know what next season will bring. His stats through 7 games are 1706 yards on 57% passing, 7.5 ypa, 8 TD and 8INT for a passer rating of 77.8. Projecting those numbers to a full season gives 3900 yards, 18 TD and 18 INT (ypa and rating remain 7.5 and 77.8, respectively). He'd have the highest yardage and yards per attempt by a wide margin of this group, and his rating would be 2nd to only Favre. Cutler is the only player in the group who threw more scores than picks, and an even ratio is par for that course. Oh, and Kolb contends for the worst pass protection and weakest running game too.
I think it's time to not panic and let history calm our nerves.
Monday, October 31, 2011
Mid-Season Draft Peek
After lots of off-season drama, we've quickly reached the halfway point of the season. Mel Kiper and Todd McShay are busily refining their draft boards. Until we actually slot the teams, it's all somewhat meaningless ... so it's time to take a stab at which team will pick where! I've picked the teams with 2 or fewer wins and projected a range of likely wins over the rest of their schedule. Then, I've added the midpoint of that range to their current number of wins to come up with the following projection:
1. Miami (1.0 wins)
2. Indianapolis (1.5 wins)
3. Jacksonville (2.5 wins)
4. Denver (3.0 wins)
5. St Louis (3.5 wins)
6. Minnesota (4.0 wins)
7. Arizona (4.0 wins)
8. Carolina (4.0 wins)
9. Seattle (4.5 wins)
10. oh, I dunno ... Washington seems to be imploding, I'll go with them.
A few things stand out: there is a very real chance that not 1, but 2 teams to go undefeated. Also, there are a ton of teams with awful records this year. This might be a historically bad season at the top of the draft boards. Perhaps Suck for Luck is real?
Now on to the big money question: who picks what player? Given the current draftnik boards, we can venture a few guesses.
1. Miami - Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford. The biggest no-brainer of the draft. They need a QB, he's a can't-miss guy, they gotta do it, right? Then again, this was the team that picked Ted Ginn, Jr when faced with a similar need a few years ago ...
2. Indianapolis - Matt Kalil, OT, USC. Indy's offensive line was never great, but it's downright bad now. They can't run, and their franchise QB can't get on the field. Indy tends to make solid picks, I don't see how they can go any other way here.
3. Jacksonville - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma St. The Jags need some big-time playmakers for new QB Blaine Gabbert. Their investment in him makes picking another QB unlikely, and their formerly absent pass rush is showing a few signs of life by committee. This is a team that has scored over 14 points once this season. Their line is fine, they need weapons.
4. Denver - Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma. Jon Elway hit a homerun with Von Miller last year, and he'll be looking to dump the Tim Tebow experiment in the dumpster. Tebow has a chance to save his job between now and then, but I just don't see it happening. If it does, Denver could grab Trent Richardson since the aging Willis McGahee's performance makes it clear that Knowshown Moreno is underperforming.
5. St Louis - Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford. The Rams can't keep their promising young QB upright, nor mount a convincing rushing attack. While their defense leaves plenty to be desired, this is too high of a pick for Morris Claiborne and pass rushing is actually an area of strength, which leaves Quinton Coples on the board.
6. Minnesota - Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina. The Vikings are loaded in the run game and sacks have dropped dramatically since Christian Ponder took over the starting job. Pass rush is already an area of strength for the Vikings, but 55% of their sacks come from Jared Allen who'll be turning 30 this offseason. Minnesota would also love to see Justin Blackmon available here.
7. Arizona Cardinals - Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa. Fans will hold their breath, remembering the Cardinals ill-fated reach for Levi Brown in 2007. With Blackmon off the board and Ryan Williams waiting to come back from injury, offensive skill players are probably not in play. Kevin Kolb will get some benefit of the doubt in the face of horrific line play. Morris Claiborne is a possibility, but Greg Toler will be back next year.
8. Carolina - Brandon Thompson, DT, Clemson. Carolina's offense can keep up with anyone, but they are incapable of stopping the run. They need a top interior lineman, and Thompson will fit the bill. Beason's return from injury should eliminate their interest in one of the top inside linebackers.
9. Seattle - Matt Barkley, QB, USC. Tarvaris Jackson has been statistically decent, but Seattle's offense is completely anemic. Their biggest issue is their offensive line, but there's no other lineman worthy of a top-10 pick left on the board. Let's not kid ourselves, Jackson is not the long-term answer in Seattle either.
10. Washington - Vontaze Burfict, ILB, ASU. The ubiquitous London Fletcher's career is winding down and it's time to think of a replacement in the middle. Upgrading Josh Wilson (I've never been a DeAngelo Hall fan either ...) with Morris Claiborne is a solid option as well. The Redskins would really like to get a top-notch QB or offensive lineman, but both positions have been picked clean in this scenario.
I'll have to remember to check back in at the end of the season to see how the rankings played out, and update picks based on scouting changes!
1. Miami (1.0 wins)
2. Indianapolis (1.5 wins)
3. Jacksonville (2.5 wins)
4. Denver (3.0 wins)
5. St Louis (3.5 wins)
6. Minnesota (4.0 wins)
7. Arizona (4.0 wins)
8. Carolina (4.0 wins)
9. Seattle (4.5 wins)
10. oh, I dunno ... Washington seems to be imploding, I'll go with them.
A few things stand out: there is a very real chance that not 1, but 2 teams to go undefeated. Also, there are a ton of teams with awful records this year. This might be a historically bad season at the top of the draft boards. Perhaps Suck for Luck is real?
Now on to the big money question: who picks what player? Given the current draftnik boards, we can venture a few guesses.
1. Miami - Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford. The biggest no-brainer of the draft. They need a QB, he's a can't-miss guy, they gotta do it, right? Then again, this was the team that picked Ted Ginn, Jr when faced with a similar need a few years ago ...
2. Indianapolis - Matt Kalil, OT, USC. Indy's offensive line was never great, but it's downright bad now. They can't run, and their franchise QB can't get on the field. Indy tends to make solid picks, I don't see how they can go any other way here.
3. Jacksonville - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma St. The Jags need some big-time playmakers for new QB Blaine Gabbert. Their investment in him makes picking another QB unlikely, and their formerly absent pass rush is showing a few signs of life by committee. This is a team that has scored over 14 points once this season. Their line is fine, they need weapons.
4. Denver - Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma. Jon Elway hit a homerun with Von Miller last year, and he'll be looking to dump the Tim Tebow experiment in the dumpster. Tebow has a chance to save his job between now and then, but I just don't see it happening. If it does, Denver could grab Trent Richardson since the aging Willis McGahee's performance makes it clear that Knowshown Moreno is underperforming.
5. St Louis - Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford. The Rams can't keep their promising young QB upright, nor mount a convincing rushing attack. While their defense leaves plenty to be desired, this is too high of a pick for Morris Claiborne and pass rushing is actually an area of strength, which leaves Quinton Coples on the board.
6. Minnesota - Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina. The Vikings are loaded in the run game and sacks have dropped dramatically since Christian Ponder took over the starting job. Pass rush is already an area of strength for the Vikings, but 55% of their sacks come from Jared Allen who'll be turning 30 this offseason. Minnesota would also love to see Justin Blackmon available here.
7. Arizona Cardinals - Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa. Fans will hold their breath, remembering the Cardinals ill-fated reach for Levi Brown in 2007. With Blackmon off the board and Ryan Williams waiting to come back from injury, offensive skill players are probably not in play. Kevin Kolb will get some benefit of the doubt in the face of horrific line play. Morris Claiborne is a possibility, but Greg Toler will be back next year.
8. Carolina - Brandon Thompson, DT, Clemson. Carolina's offense can keep up with anyone, but they are incapable of stopping the run. They need a top interior lineman, and Thompson will fit the bill. Beason's return from injury should eliminate their interest in one of the top inside linebackers.
9. Seattle - Matt Barkley, QB, USC. Tarvaris Jackson has been statistically decent, but Seattle's offense is completely anemic. Their biggest issue is their offensive line, but there's no other lineman worthy of a top-10 pick left on the board. Let's not kid ourselves, Jackson is not the long-term answer in Seattle either.
10. Washington - Vontaze Burfict, ILB, ASU. The ubiquitous London Fletcher's career is winding down and it's time to think of a replacement in the middle. Upgrading Josh Wilson (I've never been a DeAngelo Hall fan either ...) with Morris Claiborne is a solid option as well. The Redskins would really like to get a top-notch QB or offensive lineman, but both positions have been picked clean in this scenario.
I'll have to remember to check back in at the end of the season to see how the rankings played out, and update picks based on scouting changes!
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