Kolb's Progress

Many in Arizona are questioning the trade to get Kevin Kolb. After all, he's struggling.... right?

There are some comparisons to go against. There have been a few quarterback trades similar to the Kolb one in recent years: Matt Cassell, Jay Cutler and Brett Favre. Let's take a look at each of these and how they fared their first year in a new system.

Matt Cassell (and Mike Vrabel were traded for the Chiefs' 34th pick) was traded by the Patriots after he led them to an 11-5 record when Brady's knee was injured. Cassell completed 63% of his passes, threw for almost 3700 yards (7.16ypa) and 21 TD with only 11 interceptions and finished the season with a passer rating of 89.4. In his first year under center in Kansas City, those numbers fell to just over 2900 yards on 55% passing, 16 TD and 16 INT and a passer rating of 69.9. His yards per attempt also fell dramatically to 5.93. The Chiefs stuck with him and the next year his numbers improved to 3100 yards on 63% passing (6.92 ypa), 27 TD and a mere 7 INT and a passer rating of 93.0.

Jay Cutler (and the Broncos' 140th pick traded for Kyle Orton and the Bears' 18th and their following year's 84th pick) was jettisoned from Denver after it was clear he couldn't mesh with the team. The Bears paid a hefty price and their first year was rewarded over 3600 yards on 60% passing (6.61 ypa), 27 TD, but also 21 INT and a passer rating of 76.8. Cutler had never been very careful with the ball, but his first year completion percentage was 3 points lower than his previous 2 full seasons in Denver, his interception rate went higher (as compared to 45 vs 32), his ypa fell significantly from 7.4 and his passer rating was down about 10 points as well. The following year, he rebounded right back in line with his numbers as full-time Bronco.

Brett Favre (traded to the Jets for a 3rd round pick) was coming off one of his best seasons in Green Bay, but his indecision on retiring (or not) drove the Packers to cut ties with him and let Aaron Rodgers take over. Favre had thrown for over 4100 yards on 67% passing (7.8 ypa), 28 TD, 15 INT and a passer rating of 95.7, along with getting Green Bay to the brink of another Super Bowl appearance. In his year as a Jet, his numbers dropped significantly: under 3500 yards on 66% passing but only 6.7 ypa, 22 TD and 22 INT for a passer rating of 81.0. The verdict was that he was done, worn down, an old man ... but going to Minnesota (back to a west coast passing scheme) proved this false. He had the best statistical season of his career: 4200 yards on 68% passing, 7.9 ypa, 33 TD with only 7 INT and a passer rating of 107.2. All but the yardage and TDs were personal bests.

Kevin Kolb (traded to the Cardinals for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a 2nd round pick) was never a starter for a season, and we don't yet know what next season will bring. His stats through 7 games are 1706 yards on 57% passing, 7.5 ypa, 8 TD and 8INT for a passer rating of 77.8. Projecting those numbers to a full season gives 3900 yards, 18 TD and 18 INT (ypa and rating remain 7.5 and 77.8, respectively). He'd have the highest yardage and yards per attempt by a wide margin of this group, and his rating would be 2nd to only Favre. Cutler is the only player in the group who threw more scores than picks, and an even ratio is par for that course. Oh, and Kolb contends for the worst pass protection and weakest running game too.

I think it's time to not panic and let history calm our nerves.