Bottles of champagne are on ice, ready to pop.
The moment this Revis deal goes through, the Jets get:
1. A 2nd reasonably high pick. They can now go 49ers on us and take Cooper + Fluker, or address needs with Fluker + Werner, or ... options abound, but having 3 of the top 45 picks is a great way to reload cheaply.
2. A ton of money off their books.
3. No more headaches with Revis's holdouts.
All it cost them is a player they proved they don't need.
Sunday, April 21, 2013
Tampa Bay: the new Redskins
Holy crap, what a crazy pair of off-seasons we've seen in Tampa. Let's recap:
1. They've signed Carl Nicks to a 5 year deal worth up to 47.5M
2. They've signed Vincent Jackson to a 6 year deal worth up to 61M
3. They've signed Dashon Goldson to a 5 year deal worth up to 43M
4. Impending: they are about to sign Darrell Revis in the neighborhood of 15M a year. Oh yeah, and forfeit their #13 pick along with a couple later picks as well.
Let's see what they've accomplished here. They locked up 20M a year in a guard and wide reciever, after which their pass offense was #10 in the NFL and their running production was #15. They spent over 8M a year on a safety when other very good options are _still_ available and desperate for jobs. For example, Kerry Rhodes is a solid player, was available and could probably have been signed for 2-3M a year on a shorter deal. Unless you're the Steelers or Ravens, that elite safety does not change your defense considerably versus having a solid player there. Adding Revis to the mix means locking up 15M a year for a player to take away half the field, but the Bucs don't do a terribly good job of pressuring quarterbacks ... so ... yeah.
43M a year locked up in 4 players, none of whom play the real premium positions (quarterback, tackle, defensive tackle and defensive end).
And we haven't looked at the impact of the Bucs losing their draft pick in a year with really good quality depth at a lot of positions that they happen to need. I'm pretty sure they'd be better off taking a chance on Bjoern Werner or Star Lotulelei or any other defensive lineman available at 13 than trading it for Revis. Or, just reach a bit for one of the corners in the draft and pay them 20% of what Revis is making.
Oh yeah, don't forget Revis is in love with being the top-paid guy in the league. The moment he's not, you've got a contract holdout on your hands.
Well done.
1. They've signed Carl Nicks to a 5 year deal worth up to 47.5M
2. They've signed Vincent Jackson to a 6 year deal worth up to 61M
3. They've signed Dashon Goldson to a 5 year deal worth up to 43M
4. Impending: they are about to sign Darrell Revis in the neighborhood of 15M a year. Oh yeah, and forfeit their #13 pick along with a couple later picks as well.
Let's see what they've accomplished here. They locked up 20M a year in a guard and wide reciever, after which their pass offense was #10 in the NFL and their running production was #15. They spent over 8M a year on a safety when other very good options are _still_ available and desperate for jobs. For example, Kerry Rhodes is a solid player, was available and could probably have been signed for 2-3M a year on a shorter deal. Unless you're the Steelers or Ravens, that elite safety does not change your defense considerably versus having a solid player there. Adding Revis to the mix means locking up 15M a year for a player to take away half the field, but the Bucs don't do a terribly good job of pressuring quarterbacks ... so ... yeah.
43M a year locked up in 4 players, none of whom play the real premium positions (quarterback, tackle, defensive tackle and defensive end).
And we haven't looked at the impact of the Bucs losing their draft pick in a year with really good quality depth at a lot of positions that they happen to need. I'm pretty sure they'd be better off taking a chance on Bjoern Werner or Star Lotulelei or any other defensive lineman available at 13 than trading it for Revis. Or, just reach a bit for one of the corners in the draft and pay them 20% of what Revis is making.
Oh yeah, don't forget Revis is in love with being the top-paid guy in the league. The moment he's not, you've got a contract holdout on your hands.
Well done.
Thursday, April 18, 2013
Final 2013 Mock
Time to pit my predictive skills against the experts! All relevant scouting, trades and free agent moves have been made. There's nothing left before the draft except some time. According to Bill Polian, the 1st pick is finalized about 3 days before, at which point the team with that top pick sits tight waiting for a blockbuster trade. This year, there's no chance of that happening.
In general there's a reduced chance of trades because there are few clearly superior players at impact positions. Fisher or Joeckel? Lotulelei or Floyd? Warmack or Cooper? Austin, Allen, Patterson? There are no running backs valued in the top half of the 1st, and the entire pass rushing crop has eithe production or measurable red flags. Teams are less incentivized to trade up for one of these guys because the other one is just as good. The only exceptions are Geno Smith and Dee Milliner. Milliner is a clear blue chipper, and Smith becomes enticing due to positional value.
1. Kansas City - Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A/M (+1)
Kiper's pick: Eric Fisher (+2)
McShay's pick: Eric Fisher (+2)
Mayock's pick: Eric Fisher (+2)
Everyone is saying the pick will be Luke Joeckel, but I'm hung up on Andy Reid's history. He's drafted defensive line 6 times since 1999, and offensive line once. The Chiefs' defensive line received considerable investment between Dorsey and Jackson, but neither really panned out. Defensive end is a big need, and Lotulelei has all the production and measurables a team could want. However, the impending trade of Branden Albert may force the team's hand, and according to most experts Joeckel is the most can't-miss player in this draft.
2. Jacksonville - Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan (+1)
Kiper's pick: Luke Joeckel (+2)
McShay's pick: Dion Jordan (0)
Mayock's pick: Luke Joeckel (+2)
The Jaguars have a desperate need for a pass rusher, but none of them grade out. I just don't see them taking a chance on a raw prospect like Ansah this early. Their offense is also dismal and a great blocker should pay dividends in front of MJD and their iterating quarterback position. The should strongly consider Star Lotulelei to pair with Tyson Alualu. That tandem should improve their 30th ranked run defense and also provide some pass rush.
3. Oakland - Sharrif Floyd, DE, Florida (0)
Kiper's pick: Sharrif Floyd (0)
McShay's pick: Sharrif Floyd (0)
Mayock's pick: Sharrif Floyd (0)
The Raiders lost or are losing players along their defensive line, and need quality disruptive pieces. They'd love to finally get a quarterback, but Smith just won't go this high. I think Dion Jordan is an outside possibility, but the line takes precedence.
4. Philadelphia - Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma (+2)
Kiper's pick: Lane Johnson (+2)
McShay's pick: Lane Johnson (+2)
Mayock's pick: Lane Johnson (+2)
The Eagles went big to get Jason Peters, and his time has come. They have to know that no quarterback will succeed behind a patchwork offensive line that loses one-on-one battles. Many mocks are calling for Geno Smith here, but they still have Vick's upside. Sure he's old, but they also have Dennis Dixon in that option mold.
5. Detroit - Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama (0)
Kiper's pick: Ezekiel Ansah (+2)
McShay's pick: Ezekiel Ansah (+2)
Mayock's pick: Ezekiel Ansah (+2)
The Lions have been on a roll, drafting impact players in the 1st. Despite getting good sack production, they gave up 26 passing touchdowns last year. Remember, they made a pretty big offer to Arizona to swap spots and the rights to draft Patrick Peterson. It's finally time to take a blue chip cornerback. I think they would strongly consider Chance Warmack as well to help turn all their empty yards into points. Ansah could be in play here since the Lions lost both of their top ends and Jim Schwartz is defensive guy.
6. Cleveland - Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon (+1)
Kiper's pick: Dee Milliner (0)
McShay's pick: Geno Smith (0)
Mayock's pick: Geno Smith (0)
The Browns have a great cornerback, but are still giving up lots of passing scores. They produce a pretty good number of sacks, but by committee. They need to invest in an impact pass rusher. Ray Horton is bringing a 3-4 defense with him, and Jordan is both the most proven prospect and the best fit for the scheme.
6. San Diego - Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
The Chargers are desperate to solidify their line and let Philip Rivers actually pass from a pocket. AJ Smith was never afraid to make bold moves, ... though he's gone, I think that spirit will live on. The Browns would be happy to trade back. They should be targeting either a guard or pass rusher, and both figure to be available at 11. If any of the top 3 tackles is still on the board, this trade will happen.
7. Arizona - Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama (+1)
Kiper's pick: Dion Jordan (0)
McShay's pick: Jonathan Cooper (+2)
Mayock's pick: Jonathan Cooper (+2)
The new front office believe in best player available, and new coach Arians says the line is one player away from being really good. The weakest link just so happens to be RG Adam Snyder, so Warmack upgrades a weakness to a dominant position. The Cardinals would probably be happier to get Lane Johnson or Dion Jordan to provide consistent pressure instead of them having to scheme for sacks. However, both of those guys are off the board and Warmack is the pick.
8. Buffalo - Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina (0)
Kiper's pick: Jonathan Cooper (0)
McShay's pick: Ryan Nassib (+1)
Mayock's pick: Tavon Austin (0)
Blocking is key for the Bills to keep Kevin Kolb comfortable, performing, and on the field. The Bills lost excellent guard Andy Levitre in the offseason, making this is a position of need. In past mocks I've said Buffalo should consider only the premium middle lineback prospect, but the value is no longer there. They have to focus on what they do well: run the ball. Between Te'o, Minter and Ogletree, they can pick up a quality middle linebacker in the 2nd.
9. New York Jets - DJ Fluker, OT, Alabama (0)
Kiper's pick: Barkevious Mingo (0)
McShay's pick: Tyler Eifert (0)
Mayock's pick: Dion Jordan (0)
The Jets gave up almost 3 sacks a game and need to get back to the ground and pound game that let them drag a clearly inept Mark Sanchez to the AFC championship game. The other option is Chance Warmack. The Jets have shown a consistent pattern of drafting for need, and this is what they need. Many mocks have them taking a pass rusher, but they took Coples last year and he came on towards the end of the year. Their pass defense was great as is, and their run defense probably needs an infusion in the linebacking layer.
10. Tennessee - Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah (0)
Kiper's pick: Sheldon Richardson (0)
McShay's pick: Dee Milliner (0)
Mayock's pick: Dee Milliner (0)
The Titans need to get CJ2K back on track, and the offseason acquisition of Andy Levitre should help. Jake Locker could use a down-field weapon, but we're too high to take a wide receiver in this draft. The Titans have numerous needs, and at this point Star represents too much value. Taking a risk on Ansah doesn't make a ton of sense because they already have two solid defensive ends and a linebacker who all collected 6 sacks last year.
11. San Diego - Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington (0)
Kiper's pick: DJ Fluker (+2)
McShay's pick: Luke Joeckel (+1)
Mayock's pick: Chance Warmack (0)
The Chargers missed all their chances to upgrade their line. They lost two good corners as well, so they elect to replenish that spot. The next best left tackle is Menelik Watson, and he's not even a 1st-round grade.
11. Cleveland - Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU
If the Browns traded back with San Diego, they get a player with the same upside they would have taken at 6.
12. Miami - Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU (+1)
Kiper's pick: Chance Warmack (0)
McShay's pick: DJ Fluker (0)
Mayock's pick: DJ Fluker (0)
The Dolphins got Mike Wallace and are about to get Branden Albert. They have a great pass rusher in Cameron Wake, but let's not forget he's 31 already and they have no one opposite him. Cornerback should be a consideration here too, but Ansah's upside is too much to pass up here.
13. New York Jets - Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri (+2)
Kiper's pick: Tavon Austin (0)
McShay's pick: Chance Warmack (0)
Mayock's pick: Tyler Eifert (0)
The Jets have been horrific against the run. After upgrading their offensive line in a move to get back to ground-and-pound, they can address their defense with a distruptive defensive tackle who should pay off in both facets of the defense. There's a glut of cornerbacks that they can pick from in the 2nd.
14. Carolina - Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia (0)
Kiper's pick: Star Lotulelei (+2)
McShay's pick: Star Lotulelei (+2)
Mayock's pick: Sheldon Richardson (+1)
The Panthers have a great run game, a franchise quarterback, a good pass rush, a solid run defense, and a single playmaking wide receiver entering his 13th year in the league. Steve Smith's shelf life is short and they'll need a replacement. In the meantime they can enjoy two dynamic threats.
15. New Orleans - Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU (0)
15. New Orleans - Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
Kiper's pick: Jarvis Jones (0)
McShay's pick: Barkevious Mingo (0)
Mayock's pick: Barkevious Mingo (0)
The Saints' offense has no problems and their defense is awful. They have lots of playmakers in the secondary, but it's all predicated on getting pressure up front. Mingo is still on the board and has all the physical measurables needed for the job and excelled at making splash plays. If he's off the board, Jarvis Jones is the next best option.
16. St Louis - Keenan Allen, WR, California (+1)
Kiper's pick: Kenny Vaccaro (0)
McShay's pick: Tavon Austin (+2)
Mayock's pick: Kenny Vaccaro (0)
The Rams lost their best receiver and have no one even pushing for a strong #2 role. They also need to upgrade their offensive line, but have the 22nd pick to pick up Menelik Watson, and can target a guard in the 2nd or 3rd.
17. Pittsburgh - Sylvester Williams, DE, North Carolina (0)
Kiper's pick: Tyler Eifert (0)
McShay's pick: Jarvis Jones (+2)
Mayock's pick: Jarvis Jones (+2)
The Steelers suddenly have a lot of needs: James Harrison is the biggest name, but their defensive line is eroding. Jason Worilds will be thrust into the starting pass rusher role, and this spot is great for a value pick. Williams has all the upside to be a disruptive end and help keep the defense dominant.
18. Dallas - Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas (0)
Kiper's pick: Sylvester Williams (0)
McShay's pick: Sheldon Richardson (0)
Mayock's pick: Star Lotulelei (0)
The Cowboys need to shore up their defense so they can actually finish games. Their offensive line is also suspect, but it's not quite value time to go that route. They'd love for Vaccaro to still be on the board to help glue their secondary together, and this works out well for them.
19. New York - Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia (0)
Kiper's pick: DJ Hayden (0)
McShay's pick: Bjoern Werner (0)
Mayock's pick: Justin Pugh (+2)
The Giants are a defensive mess. They weren't producing sacks at their usual rate, and everything suffered as a result. They do still have Justin Tuck and JPP coming off the edge, so they need support in the 2nd level. Ogletree edges out Te'o due to his athleticism.
20. Chicago - Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame (0)
Kiper's pick: Manti Te'o (0)
McShay's pick: Manti Te'o (0)
Mayock's pick: Manti Te'o (0)
The Bears, despite aging, still have a great defense and a good running game .. but their passing game has been a mess despite the addition of Brandon Marshall because they still lack other legitimate threats. Scoring the top tight end in the draft gives Cutler more options. The knee-jerk reaction would be to find Brian Urlacher's replacement, but middle linebackers are easier to find in the 2nd or 3rd round.
21. Cincinnati - Cordarelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee (0)
Kiper's pick: Eddie Lacy (0)
McShay's pick: Eddie Lacy (0)
Mayock's pick: Eric Reid (0)
The Bengals are a team without real weaknesses. Their defense is better than their offense, and providing Andy Dalton with a true complement to AJ Green should help the passing game out.
22. St. Louis - Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia (x)
Kiper's pick: Cordarrelle Patterson (x)
McShay's pick: Kenny Vaccaro (x)
Mayock's pick: Alec Ogletree (x)
The Rams have a multitude of needs, mostly along the offensive line. I certainly think Menelik Watson is in play here (I don't buy that Kyle Long is a prospective tackle in the NFL and good guards can be found in the 2nd-4th rounds), but lining up Jones at the weakside linebacker spot like Denver does with Von Miller could elevate an evolving defense.
23. Minnesota - Robert Woods, WR, USC (0)
Kiper's pick: Robert Woods (0)
McShay's pick: Sylvester Williams (+1)
Mayock's pick: Cordarrelle Patterson (0)
The Vikings lost Percy Harvin and Kyle Rudolph is their only other credible receiving threat. Even with Harvin they were fairly one-dimensional and had the 2nd-worst passing offense in the league. Adrian Peterson is amazing, but he needs help. I think the Vikings take Woods over Hunter for the playmaking upside. I think Geno Smith is in play here as well; it's hard to believe Ponder is a franchise QB. The Vikings also need help in the secondary and will address that at 25.
24. Indianapolis - Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida St (+2)
Kiper's pick: Xavier Rhodes (0)
McShay's pick: DJ Hayden (0)
Mayock's pick: DJ Hayden (0)
The Colts have trouble keeping Andrew Luck upright and they have trouble running the ball. They need to invest in their line, primarily at guard. However, they also were one of the worst teams against the run and weren't great against the pass. Guards are easy to find outside the 1st and they picked up Ricky Jean Francois and Aubrayo Franklin, so they should looking for a 4-3 end to displace the disappointing Jerry Hughes.
25. Minnesota - DJ Hayden, CB, Houston (+1)
Kiper's pick: Alec Ogletree (0)
McShay's pick: Alec Ogletree (0)
Mayock's pick: Sylvester Williams (0)
The Vikings lost their only playmaking corner and need to reload. There's a glut of players ranked about equally, so look for the Vikings to try and trade back with this pick.
26. Green Bay - Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama (0)
Kiper's pick: Datone Jones (+2)
McShay's pick: Justin Pugh (0)
Mayock's pick: Eddie Lacy (0)
Not only is Aaron Rodgers the best quarterback in the NFL, he's also the best runner on his team. That needs to change. The Packers have been less consistent since parting ways with Ryan Grant. Lacy brings true 3-down credibility to the position, though it isn't consistent with the way the team has drafted in the past. They could also look at improving their line, but the value likely isn't there.
27. Houston - Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee (+1)
Kiper's pick: DeAndre Hopkins (+2)
McShay's pick: Justin Hunter (+1)
Mayock's pick: Justin Hunter (+1)
The Texans have no glaring needs, which is common for a team that made a playoff run, though their passing game changes dramatically when Andre Johnson is out. They simply need additional threats, and Hunter fits that bill.
28. Denver - Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame (0)
Kiper's pick: Tank Carradine (0)
McShay's pick: Datone Jones (+1)
Mayock's pick: Bjoern Werner (0)
After a slow start, the Broncos were the best team in the NFL, and were a small meltdown away from probably continuing to a Super Bowl championship. They can take the best player available, one of whom happens to be at a position that needs a reboot.
29. New England - Johnathan Hankins, NT, Ohio State (x)
Kiper's pick: Desmond Trufant (x)
McShay's pick: Xavier Rhodes (x)
Mayock's pick: Xavier Rhodes (x)
We're getting into tantalizing Geno Smith trade territory, and look for the Patriots to be eager partners. The Jaguars, Raiders, Eagles and Jets could all be interested parties. Absent a trade, the Pats will take the best player available at any position. It doesn't hurt that he should be a good replacement for Wilfork down the line.
30. Atlanta - Datone Jones, DE, UCLA (0)
Kiper's pick: Robert Alford (0)
McShay's pick: Desmond Trufant (+2)
Mayock's pick: Desmond Trufant (+2)
The Falcons have a surprising number of needs for a 13-win team. Their running game was unproductive, and get Steven Jackson in place of Michael Turner is a wash at best. I think they'd love to get Lacy, and there's a good chance the Packers don't pick him up. But, their defense is actually quite suspect, and a lack of strong line play has hurt them. Jones is a versatile player who can line up as either a 3-4 end or 4-3 tackle in the Falcons' shifting schemes.
31. San Francisco - Margus Hunt, DE, SMU (0)
Kiper's pick: Eric Reid (+2)
McShay's pick: Eric Reid (+2)
Mayock's pick: Zach Ertz (0)
The 49ers identity is around their defense, and Hunt has intriguing upside as a potential matchup nightmare after Justin Smith's brilliant career winds down.
32. Baltimore - Kevin Minter, ILB, LSU (0)
Kiper's pick: Kevin Minter (0)
McShay's pick: Matt Elam (+2)
Mayock's pick: Matt Elam (+2)
The Ravens lost so many impact players this offseason, and have a surprising number of needs for a Super Bowl champ. They could use help along the offensive line, in the secondary, in the pass rush and in the gaping hole left by Ray Lewis. Minter actually profiles similar to Lewis athletically, and I think the Ravens would prefer him to Te'o.
I expect to see a number of trades happen as teams target specific players. The rookie scale has made trading up less prohibitive because only draft capital is involved while salaries are kept reasonable.
Just for fun, I'll see how I do against the experts. Each correct pick for a team will be worth 2 points, 1 point credit for correct player position. Draft position is ignored-ish, for example if a team trades back 3 spots but still selects the predicted player, that's worth 2 points.
Edit, final tallies:
Me: 14 points.
Kiper: 18 points.
McShay: 25 points
Mayock: 20 points
Todd McShay is the winner, and I'm the loser. Guess I'm not ready to quit my day job just yet.
And now, we wait.
In general there's a reduced chance of trades because there are few clearly superior players at impact positions. Fisher or Joeckel? Lotulelei or Floyd? Warmack or Cooper? Austin, Allen, Patterson? There are no running backs valued in the top half of the 1st, and the entire pass rushing crop has eithe production or measurable red flags. Teams are less incentivized to trade up for one of these guys because the other one is just as good. The only exceptions are Geno Smith and Dee Milliner. Milliner is a clear blue chipper, and Smith becomes enticing due to positional value.
1. Kansas City - Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A/M (+1)
Kiper's pick: Eric Fisher (+2)
McShay's pick: Eric Fisher (+2)
Mayock's pick: Eric Fisher (+2)
Everyone is saying the pick will be Luke Joeckel, but I'm hung up on Andy Reid's history. He's drafted defensive line 6 times since 1999, and offensive line once. The Chiefs' defensive line received considerable investment between Dorsey and Jackson, but neither really panned out. Defensive end is a big need, and Lotulelei has all the production and measurables a team could want. However, the impending trade of Branden Albert may force the team's hand, and according to most experts Joeckel is the most can't-miss player in this draft.
2. Jacksonville - Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan (+1)
Kiper's pick: Luke Joeckel (+2)
McShay's pick: Dion Jordan (0)
Mayock's pick: Luke Joeckel (+2)
The Jaguars have a desperate need for a pass rusher, but none of them grade out. I just don't see them taking a chance on a raw prospect like Ansah this early. Their offense is also dismal and a great blocker should pay dividends in front of MJD and their iterating quarterback position. The should strongly consider Star Lotulelei to pair with Tyson Alualu. That tandem should improve their 30th ranked run defense and also provide some pass rush.
3. Oakland - Sharrif Floyd, DE, Florida (0)
Kiper's pick: Sharrif Floyd (0)
McShay's pick: Sharrif Floyd (0)
Mayock's pick: Sharrif Floyd (0)
The Raiders lost or are losing players along their defensive line, and need quality disruptive pieces. They'd love to finally get a quarterback, but Smith just won't go this high. I think Dion Jordan is an outside possibility, but the line takes precedence.
4. Philadelphia - Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma (+2)
Kiper's pick: Lane Johnson (+2)
McShay's pick: Lane Johnson (+2)
Mayock's pick: Lane Johnson (+2)
The Eagles went big to get Jason Peters, and his time has come. They have to know that no quarterback will succeed behind a patchwork offensive line that loses one-on-one battles. Many mocks are calling for Geno Smith here, but they still have Vick's upside. Sure he's old, but they also have Dennis Dixon in that option mold.
5. Detroit - Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama (0)
Kiper's pick: Ezekiel Ansah (+2)
McShay's pick: Ezekiel Ansah (+2)
Mayock's pick: Ezekiel Ansah (+2)
The Lions have been on a roll, drafting impact players in the 1st. Despite getting good sack production, they gave up 26 passing touchdowns last year. Remember, they made a pretty big offer to Arizona to swap spots and the rights to draft Patrick Peterson. It's finally time to take a blue chip cornerback. I think they would strongly consider Chance Warmack as well to help turn all their empty yards into points. Ansah could be in play here since the Lions lost both of their top ends and Jim Schwartz is defensive guy.
6. Cleveland - Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon (+1)
Kiper's pick: Dee Milliner (0)
McShay's pick: Geno Smith (0)
Mayock's pick: Geno Smith (0)
The Browns have a great cornerback, but are still giving up lots of passing scores. They produce a pretty good number of sacks, but by committee. They need to invest in an impact pass rusher. Ray Horton is bringing a 3-4 defense with him, and Jordan is both the most proven prospect and the best fit for the scheme.
6. San Diego - Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
The Chargers are desperate to solidify their line and let Philip Rivers actually pass from a pocket. AJ Smith was never afraid to make bold moves, ... though he's gone, I think that spirit will live on. The Browns would be happy to trade back. They should be targeting either a guard or pass rusher, and both figure to be available at 11. If any of the top 3 tackles is still on the board, this trade will happen.
7. Arizona - Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama (+1)
Kiper's pick: Dion Jordan (0)
McShay's pick: Jonathan Cooper (+2)
Mayock's pick: Jonathan Cooper (+2)
The new front office believe in best player available, and new coach Arians says the line is one player away from being really good. The weakest link just so happens to be RG Adam Snyder, so Warmack upgrades a weakness to a dominant position. The Cardinals would probably be happier to get Lane Johnson or Dion Jordan to provide consistent pressure instead of them having to scheme for sacks. However, both of those guys are off the board and Warmack is the pick.
8. Buffalo - Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina (0)
Kiper's pick: Jonathan Cooper (0)
McShay's pick: Ryan Nassib (+1)
Mayock's pick: Tavon Austin (0)
Blocking is key for the Bills to keep Kevin Kolb comfortable, performing, and on the field. The Bills lost excellent guard Andy Levitre in the offseason, making this is a position of need. In past mocks I've said Buffalo should consider only the premium middle lineback prospect, but the value is no longer there. They have to focus on what they do well: run the ball. Between Te'o, Minter and Ogletree, they can pick up a quality middle linebacker in the 2nd.
9. New York Jets - DJ Fluker, OT, Alabama (0)
Kiper's pick: Barkevious Mingo (0)
McShay's pick: Tyler Eifert (0)
Mayock's pick: Dion Jordan (0)
The Jets gave up almost 3 sacks a game and need to get back to the ground and pound game that let them drag a clearly inept Mark Sanchez to the AFC championship game. The other option is Chance Warmack. The Jets have shown a consistent pattern of drafting for need, and this is what they need. Many mocks have them taking a pass rusher, but they took Coples last year and he came on towards the end of the year. Their pass defense was great as is, and their run defense probably needs an infusion in the linebacking layer.
10. Tennessee - Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah (0)
Kiper's pick: Sheldon Richardson (0)
McShay's pick: Dee Milliner (0)
Mayock's pick: Dee Milliner (0)
The Titans need to get CJ2K back on track, and the offseason acquisition of Andy Levitre should help. Jake Locker could use a down-field weapon, but we're too high to take a wide receiver in this draft. The Titans have numerous needs, and at this point Star represents too much value. Taking a risk on Ansah doesn't make a ton of sense because they already have two solid defensive ends and a linebacker who all collected 6 sacks last year.
11. San Diego - Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington (0)
Kiper's pick: DJ Fluker (+2)
McShay's pick: Luke Joeckel (+1)
Mayock's pick: Chance Warmack (0)
The Chargers missed all their chances to upgrade their line. They lost two good corners as well, so they elect to replenish that spot. The next best left tackle is Menelik Watson, and he's not even a 1st-round grade.
11. Cleveland - Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU
If the Browns traded back with San Diego, they get a player with the same upside they would have taken at 6.
12. Miami - Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU (+1)
Kiper's pick: Chance Warmack (0)
McShay's pick: DJ Fluker (0)
Mayock's pick: DJ Fluker (0)
The Dolphins got Mike Wallace and are about to get Branden Albert. They have a great pass rusher in Cameron Wake, but let's not forget he's 31 already and they have no one opposite him. Cornerback should be a consideration here too, but Ansah's upside is too much to pass up here.
13. New York Jets - Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri (+2)
Kiper's pick: Tavon Austin (0)
McShay's pick: Chance Warmack (0)
Mayock's pick: Tyler Eifert (0)
The Jets have been horrific against the run. After upgrading their offensive line in a move to get back to ground-and-pound, they can address their defense with a distruptive defensive tackle who should pay off in both facets of the defense. There's a glut of cornerbacks that they can pick from in the 2nd.
14. Carolina - Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia (0)
Kiper's pick: Star Lotulelei (+2)
McShay's pick: Star Lotulelei (+2)
Mayock's pick: Sheldon Richardson (+1)
The Panthers have a great run game, a franchise quarterback, a good pass rush, a solid run defense, and a single playmaking wide receiver entering his 13th year in the league. Steve Smith's shelf life is short and they'll need a replacement. In the meantime they can enjoy two dynamic threats.
15. New Orleans - Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU (0)
15. New Orleans - Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
Kiper's pick: Jarvis Jones (0)
McShay's pick: Barkevious Mingo (0)
Mayock's pick: Barkevious Mingo (0)
The Saints' offense has no problems and their defense is awful. They have lots of playmakers in the secondary, but it's all predicated on getting pressure up front. Mingo is still on the board and has all the physical measurables needed for the job and excelled at making splash plays. If he's off the board, Jarvis Jones is the next best option.
16. St Louis - Keenan Allen, WR, California (+1)
Kiper's pick: Kenny Vaccaro (0)
McShay's pick: Tavon Austin (+2)
Mayock's pick: Kenny Vaccaro (0)
The Rams lost their best receiver and have no one even pushing for a strong #2 role. They also need to upgrade their offensive line, but have the 22nd pick to pick up Menelik Watson, and can target a guard in the 2nd or 3rd.
17. Pittsburgh - Sylvester Williams, DE, North Carolina (0)
Kiper's pick: Tyler Eifert (0)
McShay's pick: Jarvis Jones (+2)
Mayock's pick: Jarvis Jones (+2)
The Steelers suddenly have a lot of needs: James Harrison is the biggest name, but their defensive line is eroding. Jason Worilds will be thrust into the starting pass rusher role, and this spot is great for a value pick. Williams has all the upside to be a disruptive end and help keep the defense dominant.
18. Dallas - Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas (0)
Kiper's pick: Sylvester Williams (0)
McShay's pick: Sheldon Richardson (0)
Mayock's pick: Star Lotulelei (0)
The Cowboys need to shore up their defense so they can actually finish games. Their offensive line is also suspect, but it's not quite value time to go that route. They'd love for Vaccaro to still be on the board to help glue their secondary together, and this works out well for them.
19. New York - Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia (0)
Kiper's pick: DJ Hayden (0)
McShay's pick: Bjoern Werner (0)
Mayock's pick: Justin Pugh (+2)
The Giants are a defensive mess. They weren't producing sacks at their usual rate, and everything suffered as a result. They do still have Justin Tuck and JPP coming off the edge, so they need support in the 2nd level. Ogletree edges out Te'o due to his athleticism.
20. Chicago - Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame (0)
Kiper's pick: Manti Te'o (0)
McShay's pick: Manti Te'o (0)
Mayock's pick: Manti Te'o (0)
The Bears, despite aging, still have a great defense and a good running game .. but their passing game has been a mess despite the addition of Brandon Marshall because they still lack other legitimate threats. Scoring the top tight end in the draft gives Cutler more options. The knee-jerk reaction would be to find Brian Urlacher's replacement, but middle linebackers are easier to find in the 2nd or 3rd round.
21. Cincinnati - Cordarelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee (0)
Kiper's pick: Eddie Lacy (0)
McShay's pick: Eddie Lacy (0)
Mayock's pick: Eric Reid (0)
The Bengals are a team without real weaknesses. Their defense is better than their offense, and providing Andy Dalton with a true complement to AJ Green should help the passing game out.
22. St. Louis - Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia (x)
Kiper's pick: Cordarrelle Patterson (x)
McShay's pick: Kenny Vaccaro (x)
Mayock's pick: Alec Ogletree (x)
The Rams have a multitude of needs, mostly along the offensive line. I certainly think Menelik Watson is in play here (I don't buy that Kyle Long is a prospective tackle in the NFL and good guards can be found in the 2nd-4th rounds), but lining up Jones at the weakside linebacker spot like Denver does with Von Miller could elevate an evolving defense.
23. Minnesota - Robert Woods, WR, USC (0)
Kiper's pick: Robert Woods (0)
McShay's pick: Sylvester Williams (+1)
Mayock's pick: Cordarrelle Patterson (0)
The Vikings lost Percy Harvin and Kyle Rudolph is their only other credible receiving threat. Even with Harvin they were fairly one-dimensional and had the 2nd-worst passing offense in the league. Adrian Peterson is amazing, but he needs help. I think the Vikings take Woods over Hunter for the playmaking upside. I think Geno Smith is in play here as well; it's hard to believe Ponder is a franchise QB. The Vikings also need help in the secondary and will address that at 25.
24. Indianapolis - Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida St (+2)
Kiper's pick: Xavier Rhodes (0)
McShay's pick: DJ Hayden (0)
Mayock's pick: DJ Hayden (0)
The Colts have trouble keeping Andrew Luck upright and they have trouble running the ball. They need to invest in their line, primarily at guard. However, they also were one of the worst teams against the run and weren't great against the pass. Guards are easy to find outside the 1st and they picked up Ricky Jean Francois and Aubrayo Franklin, so they should looking for a 4-3 end to displace the disappointing Jerry Hughes.
25. Minnesota - DJ Hayden, CB, Houston (+1)
Kiper's pick: Alec Ogletree (0)
McShay's pick: Alec Ogletree (0)
Mayock's pick: Sylvester Williams (0)
The Vikings lost their only playmaking corner and need to reload. There's a glut of players ranked about equally, so look for the Vikings to try and trade back with this pick.
26. Green Bay - Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama (0)
Kiper's pick: Datone Jones (+2)
McShay's pick: Justin Pugh (0)
Mayock's pick: Eddie Lacy (0)
Not only is Aaron Rodgers the best quarterback in the NFL, he's also the best runner on his team. That needs to change. The Packers have been less consistent since parting ways with Ryan Grant. Lacy brings true 3-down credibility to the position, though it isn't consistent with the way the team has drafted in the past. They could also look at improving their line, but the value likely isn't there.
27. Houston - Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee (+1)
Kiper's pick: DeAndre Hopkins (+2)
McShay's pick: Justin Hunter (+1)
Mayock's pick: Justin Hunter (+1)
The Texans have no glaring needs, which is common for a team that made a playoff run, though their passing game changes dramatically when Andre Johnson is out. They simply need additional threats, and Hunter fits that bill.
28. Denver - Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame (0)
Kiper's pick: Tank Carradine (0)
McShay's pick: Datone Jones (+1)
Mayock's pick: Bjoern Werner (0)
After a slow start, the Broncos were the best team in the NFL, and were a small meltdown away from probably continuing to a Super Bowl championship. They can take the best player available, one of whom happens to be at a position that needs a reboot.
29. New England - Johnathan Hankins, NT, Ohio State (x)
Kiper's pick: Desmond Trufant (x)
McShay's pick: Xavier Rhodes (x)
Mayock's pick: Xavier Rhodes (x)
We're getting into tantalizing Geno Smith trade territory, and look for the Patriots to be eager partners. The Jaguars, Raiders, Eagles and Jets could all be interested parties. Absent a trade, the Pats will take the best player available at any position. It doesn't hurt that he should be a good replacement for Wilfork down the line.
30. Atlanta - Datone Jones, DE, UCLA (0)
Kiper's pick: Robert Alford (0)
McShay's pick: Desmond Trufant (+2)
Mayock's pick: Desmond Trufant (+2)
The Falcons have a surprising number of needs for a 13-win team. Their running game was unproductive, and get Steven Jackson in place of Michael Turner is a wash at best. I think they'd love to get Lacy, and there's a good chance the Packers don't pick him up. But, their defense is actually quite suspect, and a lack of strong line play has hurt them. Jones is a versatile player who can line up as either a 3-4 end or 4-3 tackle in the Falcons' shifting schemes.
31. San Francisco - Margus Hunt, DE, SMU (0)
Kiper's pick: Eric Reid (+2)
McShay's pick: Eric Reid (+2)
Mayock's pick: Zach Ertz (0)
The 49ers identity is around their defense, and Hunt has intriguing upside as a potential matchup nightmare after Justin Smith's brilliant career winds down.
32. Baltimore - Kevin Minter, ILB, LSU (0)
Kiper's pick: Kevin Minter (0)
McShay's pick: Matt Elam (+2)
Mayock's pick: Matt Elam (+2)
The Ravens lost so many impact players this offseason, and have a surprising number of needs for a Super Bowl champ. They could use help along the offensive line, in the secondary, in the pass rush and in the gaping hole left by Ray Lewis. Minter actually profiles similar to Lewis athletically, and I think the Ravens would prefer him to Te'o.
I expect to see a number of trades happen as teams target specific players. The rookie scale has made trading up less prohibitive because only draft capital is involved while salaries are kept reasonable.
Just for fun, I'll see how I do against the experts. Each correct pick for a team will be worth 2 points, 1 point credit for correct player position. Draft position is ignored-ish, for example if a team trades back 3 spots but still selects the predicted player, that's worth 2 points.
Edit, final tallies:
Me: 14 points.
Kiper: 18 points.
McShay: 25 points
Mayock: 20 points
Todd McShay is the winner, and I'm the loser. Guess I'm not ready to quit my day job just yet.
And now, we wait.
Tuesday, April 2, 2013
Matt Flynn, 90% off original price!
... or is he?
Let's look at the basic facts:
The Seahawks brought in Flynn as a free agent, signing him to a 3 year deal worth a max of about 26 million dollars. The Raiders acquired Flynn from the Seahawks for a 2014 5th rounder and a conditional pick in 2015. The details of the latter are undisclosed, but let's assume it's a mid- or late-round pick.
On the surface, the net result is that the Seahawks bought two minor future picks for about $10m that they have already paid Flynn. But, is it fair to assess the outcome like this?
At the time, Seattle was signing a guy they were pretty sure would be their starter. As starters go, the original deal worked in Seattle's favor (consider the Cardinals made twice the financial commitment to an equally unproven Kolb, one who had never, say, passed for 480 yards in a game). Let's assume (and this is a big assumption), that Seattle's full plan was always to both buy Flynn and draft Wilson. Wilson is on a tiny rookie deal paying him less than a million per year. He ended up beating out Flynn and the team now appears set at quarterback for the next decade. Net investment over 3 years is the $10m paid to Flynn and the couple million paid to Wilson before he gets an extension for real starter money. This is an incredible outcome. Basically, the team gave themselves two shots at guys with upsides, with a low combined cost. Critics can nitpick that "well, if only they had just drafted Wilson and never signed Flynn ... ", but no one could know which (if either) player would blossom. It's possible that Wilson succeeded because Flynn was also there as competition. We'll never know. Bottom line is that they got a franchise guy, amortized to around $4m per year over 3 years. Brilliant.
The Seahawks are already winners, even if they simply leave Flynn at a gas station after stopping for snacks. To understand trade value, we have to look at both the seller and the buyer. The seller is motivated by what they'd need to spend to replace the asset they are giving away. The buyer is motivated by what they'd need to spend elsewhere to get someone of similar quality.
Seattle's replacement value is the going rate for a backup quarterback. It doesn't matter of Flynn turns out to be a starter in the league, he's of basically zero value in Seattle because he'll ideally impact zero plays in 2013. To boot, he's an $8m cap hit this year and the next. A typical roster backup should be making less than half that. In other words, Seattle would benefit by simply dumping him and signing someone else for way less, or drafting a guy in the middle rounds to develop behind Wilson. The catch is that Flynn's cap hit is bigger if he's cut (and he may even impact the 2014 cap, though I'm not sure). If Seattle can trade him, his cap hit for 2013 is reduced to $4m, and his 2014 hit goes away. Thus, trading him for _anything_ saves the team $12m over 2 years, and gives them flexibility to address the backup spot in the draft or via free agency or trade. Right here, right now, Seattle should be happier with a 7th round pick than with Flynn.
The Raiders need a quarterback because Carson Palmer doesn't want to be there anymore. Flynn is probably as attractive as the top 2 quarterbacks in the draft, which would peg his value as high as a late 1st rounder, but realistically a high 2nd. However, Flynn is already 28 and therefore hitting on him has less long-term value than hitting on Smith or Barkley or one of the other college prospects. Additionally, having the flexibility to either take a quarterback in the 2nd or a player of great value filling a need who happens to be there is worth something to the Raiders as well. Thus, I don't see them inherently valuing Flynn higher than about a 3rd round pick. Add in that Flynn will make much more than rookie money, and that offer has to keep going down.
In principle, we've established that there's common benefit to the trade, and we've pegged the value between "less than a 3rd" and "at least a 7th". The Raiders maintain the leverage here because they can just as easily draft a prospect with upside. Thus, they can squeeze the Seahawks close to their acceptable selling point. The final deal seems like a compromise: a future 6th is about equal to this year's 7th (minimum selling point), and the conditional 2015 pick is there for "fairness", in case Flynn really pans out. If that 2015 is, say, a 3rd rounder (equals a 5th rounder today), then the Seahawks are getting pretty close to about the max the Raiders would have been willing to pay.
Let's look at the basic facts:
The Seahawks brought in Flynn as a free agent, signing him to a 3 year deal worth a max of about 26 million dollars. The Raiders acquired Flynn from the Seahawks for a 2014 5th rounder and a conditional pick in 2015. The details of the latter are undisclosed, but let's assume it's a mid- or late-round pick.
On the surface, the net result is that the Seahawks bought two minor future picks for about $10m that they have already paid Flynn. But, is it fair to assess the outcome like this?
At the time, Seattle was signing a guy they were pretty sure would be their starter. As starters go, the original deal worked in Seattle's favor (consider the Cardinals made twice the financial commitment to an equally unproven Kolb, one who had never, say, passed for 480 yards in a game). Let's assume (and this is a big assumption), that Seattle's full plan was always to both buy Flynn and draft Wilson. Wilson is on a tiny rookie deal paying him less than a million per year. He ended up beating out Flynn and the team now appears set at quarterback for the next decade. Net investment over 3 years is the $10m paid to Flynn and the couple million paid to Wilson before he gets an extension for real starter money. This is an incredible outcome. Basically, the team gave themselves two shots at guys with upsides, with a low combined cost. Critics can nitpick that "well, if only they had just drafted Wilson and never signed Flynn ... ", but no one could know which (if either) player would blossom. It's possible that Wilson succeeded because Flynn was also there as competition. We'll never know. Bottom line is that they got a franchise guy, amortized to around $4m per year over 3 years. Brilliant.
The Seahawks are already winners, even if they simply leave Flynn at a gas station after stopping for snacks. To understand trade value, we have to look at both the seller and the buyer. The seller is motivated by what they'd need to spend to replace the asset they are giving away. The buyer is motivated by what they'd need to spend elsewhere to get someone of similar quality.
Seattle's replacement value is the going rate for a backup quarterback. It doesn't matter of Flynn turns out to be a starter in the league, he's of basically zero value in Seattle because he'll ideally impact zero plays in 2013. To boot, he's an $8m cap hit this year and the next. A typical roster backup should be making less than half that. In other words, Seattle would benefit by simply dumping him and signing someone else for way less, or drafting a guy in the middle rounds to develop behind Wilson. The catch is that Flynn's cap hit is bigger if he's cut (and he may even impact the 2014 cap, though I'm not sure). If Seattle can trade him, his cap hit for 2013 is reduced to $4m, and his 2014 hit goes away. Thus, trading him for _anything_ saves the team $12m over 2 years, and gives them flexibility to address the backup spot in the draft or via free agency or trade. Right here, right now, Seattle should be happier with a 7th round pick than with Flynn.
The Raiders need a quarterback because Carson Palmer doesn't want to be there anymore. Flynn is probably as attractive as the top 2 quarterbacks in the draft, which would peg his value as high as a late 1st rounder, but realistically a high 2nd. However, Flynn is already 28 and therefore hitting on him has less long-term value than hitting on Smith or Barkley or one of the other college prospects. Additionally, having the flexibility to either take a quarterback in the 2nd or a player of great value filling a need who happens to be there is worth something to the Raiders as well. Thus, I don't see them inherently valuing Flynn higher than about a 3rd round pick. Add in that Flynn will make much more than rookie money, and that offer has to keep going down.
In principle, we've established that there's common benefit to the trade, and we've pegged the value between "less than a 3rd" and "at least a 7th". The Raiders maintain the leverage here because they can just as easily draft a prospect with upside. Thus, they can squeeze the Seahawks close to their acceptable selling point. The final deal seems like a compromise: a future 6th is about equal to this year's 7th (minimum selling point), and the conditional 2015 pick is there for "fairness", in case Flynn really pans out. If that 2015 is, say, a 3rd rounder (equals a 5th rounder today), then the Seahawks are getting pretty close to about the max the Raiders would have been willing to pay.
Saturday, March 23, 2013
Talent, or Upside?
This year's top pass rushers come with a lot of excitement, and a lot of question marks. Using the linebacker smell test guidelines, I've outlined all who are anywhere near a first round grade. Carradine and Jones didn't run in Indy; Jones now has numbers from his pro day while Carradine continues to rehab from a mid-season ACL tear.
* - values from pro day
The results are almost perfectly split between guys who produce and don't measure, or vice versa.
Werner, both Joneses, Moore and Montgomery all produced at the college level, but measured poorly. Khaseem Greene also measured poorly, didn't produce great stats and is undersized. Moore actually performed similarly to Akeem Ayers, who is now doing a solid job playing linebacker in the Titans' 4-3. None of these guys seems to have the elite measurables that almost all eventual Pro Bowlers share.
Ansah, Mingo and Jordan are considered the top 3 prospects right now. All their measurables agree that they are the ones with true NFL potential, however none had great production. Additionally, Mingo and Jordan each need to gain 20 or more pounds to fill out their frames and compete with NFL blockers. Ansah has a mere 3 years of experience, but the other 2 should have been able to use their physical skills to dominate in college. None had over 5 sacks in their final year. Lemonier isn't rated as high and also has great measurables, but was also limited to 5.5 sacks in 2012 (though he reached 9.5 in 2011, higher than Ansah, Mingo or Jordan ever did). Margus Hunt measured about as well as Ansah and even had 8 sacks his senior year, but isn't shooting as far up the boards.
Perhaps the lone exception is Jamie Collins, who had 10 sacks to go with eye-popping numbers at the combine, though his production was mostly against lower competition.
If I'm a team looking for a pass rusher, I have a real dilemma here. There's no Von Miller in this group. Everyone comes with major question marks. In my mind, there are a ton of great mid-to-late 1st round prospects here. Teams can elect between the solid player who might have a few good years, the boom-or-bust athletic specimen, or the small-conference star.
I don't, based on the numbers, see the reason for Mingo, Jordan and Ansah being top-10 prospects, but Hunt and Lemonier being fringe 1st rounders. Of all these players, only Hunt showed improvement his senior year (unless we count Ansah's introduction to the starting lineup and resulting 4.5 sacks). The other players actually regressed in their final years.
Moore and Montgomery are already free-falling down the boards after being top-10 prospects during the season. Bjoern Werner is now going in the mid-1st in mocks, which seems about right. Jarvis Jones's bad pro day and spinal stenosis add up a giant buyer beware note, and he should be following Moore down the draft tubes.
This year's draft will have a lot of busts, and one or two of our super athletes will become big-time players. And, the fascination with upside will continue.
| Name | 10y | 40y | Vertical | Broad Jump |
| Ezekiel Ansah | 1.56 | 4.63 | 34.5 | 9'10 |
| Cornelius Carradine | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Bjoern Werner | 1.68 | 4.83 | 31.0 | 9'3 |
| Datone Jones | 1.63 | 4.80 | 31.5 | 9'4 |
| Damontre Moore | 1.69 | 4.95 | 35.5 | 10'2 |
| Margus Hunt | 1.62 | 4.60 | 34.5 | 10'1 |
| Jarvis Jones | -- | 4.92* | 30.5* | 9'3* |
| Dion Jordan | 1.57 | 4.60 | 32.5 | 10'2 |
| Barkevious Mingo | 1.55 | 4.58 | 37.0 | 10'8 |
| Khaseem Greene | 1.67 | 4.71 | 30.0 | 9'8 |
| Jamie Collins | 1.56 | 4.64 | 41.5 | 11'7 |
| Corey Lemonier | 1.57 | 4.60 | 33.0 | 9'11 |
| Sam Montgomery | -- | 4.81 | 34.5 | 9'4 |
The results are almost perfectly split between guys who produce and don't measure, or vice versa.
Werner, both Joneses, Moore and Montgomery all produced at the college level, but measured poorly. Khaseem Greene also measured poorly, didn't produce great stats and is undersized. Moore actually performed similarly to Akeem Ayers, who is now doing a solid job playing linebacker in the Titans' 4-3. None of these guys seems to have the elite measurables that almost all eventual Pro Bowlers share.
Ansah, Mingo and Jordan are considered the top 3 prospects right now. All their measurables agree that they are the ones with true NFL potential, however none had great production. Additionally, Mingo and Jordan each need to gain 20 or more pounds to fill out their frames and compete with NFL blockers. Ansah has a mere 3 years of experience, but the other 2 should have been able to use their physical skills to dominate in college. None had over 5 sacks in their final year. Lemonier isn't rated as high and also has great measurables, but was also limited to 5.5 sacks in 2012 (though he reached 9.5 in 2011, higher than Ansah, Mingo or Jordan ever did). Margus Hunt measured about as well as Ansah and even had 8 sacks his senior year, but isn't shooting as far up the boards.
Perhaps the lone exception is Jamie Collins, who had 10 sacks to go with eye-popping numbers at the combine, though his production was mostly against lower competition.
If I'm a team looking for a pass rusher, I have a real dilemma here. There's no Von Miller in this group. Everyone comes with major question marks. In my mind, there are a ton of great mid-to-late 1st round prospects here. Teams can elect between the solid player who might have a few good years, the boom-or-bust athletic specimen, or the small-conference star.
I don't, based on the numbers, see the reason for Mingo, Jordan and Ansah being top-10 prospects, but Hunt and Lemonier being fringe 1st rounders. Of all these players, only Hunt showed improvement his senior year (unless we count Ansah's introduction to the starting lineup and resulting 4.5 sacks). The other players actually regressed in their final years.
Moore and Montgomery are already free-falling down the boards after being top-10 prospects during the season. Bjoern Werner is now going in the mid-1st in mocks, which seems about right. Jarvis Jones's bad pro day and spinal stenosis add up a giant buyer beware note, and he should be following Moore down the draft tubes.
This year's draft will have a lot of busts, and one or two of our super athletes will become big-time players. And, the fascination with upside will continue.
Friday, March 15, 2013
No Cardinals at Geno Smith's Pro Day
Reports say that the Cardinals (despite having clear quarterback issues) were one of the few teams (along with the Cowboys and Seahawks) not at Geno Smith's pro day. Why wouldn't they go? 3 suggestions have been given:
1. They are genuinely not interested
2. They are throwing up smokescreens, but are interested
3. They simply don't think pro days are a valuable research tool
I think option 3 can be thrown out immediately. When every other team, including teams with top notch quarterbacks, shows up, this doesn't add up. The Cardinals are trying to show disinterest, but why so blatantly? Consider the recent moves in free agency:
a. The Bills cut Ryan Fitzpatrick and have nothing going for them
b. The Jets can't be all that excited about Mark Sanchez and are high enough (and have shown a willingness) to make a move
c. The Vikings may be looking for a new player and just traded Percy Harvin for the 25th pick to go with their 23rd pick
Suppose we're pretty sure the the Bills will take Geno Smith if he's there at 8.
In scenario 1, another team could trade to 7 to get Smith. The Jets just need to package a 4th rounder with their 9th, and the Vikings 23rd and 25th comes out just about equal to the 7th pick in draft capital. The Cardinals would like to trade back if a top offensive tackle is no longer available. It's important others believe the Cardinals will not take Geno, otherwise they would trade higher up and the Cardinals don't get to trade back.
In scenario 2, everything lines up the same, but the Cardinals take Geno Smith. Here it's important everyone thought they wouldn't, otherwise they could trade up past the Cardinals.
If other teams think the Cardinals will take Geno Smith, all trade leverage is lost and there's a good chance someone else will trade up and beat them to Geno if they really wanted him.
1. They are genuinely not interested
2. They are throwing up smokescreens, but are interested
3. They simply don't think pro days are a valuable research tool
I think option 3 can be thrown out immediately. When every other team, including teams with top notch quarterbacks, shows up, this doesn't add up. The Cardinals are trying to show disinterest, but why so blatantly? Consider the recent moves in free agency:
a. The Bills cut Ryan Fitzpatrick and have nothing going for them
b. The Jets can't be all that excited about Mark Sanchez and are high enough (and have shown a willingness) to make a move
c. The Vikings may be looking for a new player and just traded Percy Harvin for the 25th pick to go with their 23rd pick
Suppose we're pretty sure the the Bills will take Geno Smith if he's there at 8.
In scenario 1, another team could trade to 7 to get Smith. The Jets just need to package a 4th rounder with their 9th, and the Vikings 23rd and 25th comes out just about equal to the 7th pick in draft capital. The Cardinals would like to trade back if a top offensive tackle is no longer available. It's important others believe the Cardinals will not take Geno, otherwise they would trade higher up and the Cardinals don't get to trade back.
In scenario 2, everything lines up the same, but the Cardinals take Geno Smith. Here it's important everyone thought they wouldn't, otherwise they could trade up past the Cardinals.
If other teams think the Cardinals will take Geno Smith, all trade leverage is lost and there's a good chance someone else will trade up and beat them to Geno if they really wanted him.
Friday, March 8, 2013
2013 Draft Mock 2.0
The combine is over and the players who are likely to be franchised have been tagged. The offseason picture is getting a little clearer! Of course there will still be big moves in the next month (both signing and releases before roster bonuses are due), but that's what Mock 3.0 will encompass. Here I'll try to combine some FA move predictions and mocking of the top 10 picks. The Chiefs are still on the clock. They've had a lot of moves this off-season: new coach, new front office, free agent left tackle.
1a. Kansas City Chiefs - Sharrif Floyd, DE, Florida
1b. Kansas City Chiefs - Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah.
Impact FA moves: Jake Long, OT or Mike Wallace, WR
Lotulelei had some heart irregularity at the combine and didn't get to work. It's a shame, but he didn't need to blow anyone away to remain an elite prospect. Until his heart is deemed actually faulty, I'm working under the assumption that he'll check out. There's a lot of speculation that the Eagles will take Joeckel or Fisher, but franchising Branden Albert suggests otherwise. It's possible they are just renting Albert as insurance for a year with the intention of moving him to the right and drafting their future LT, then getting a new RT in a later round or next year and phasing Albert out. After all, the rookie salaray scale allows teams to replace expensive vets with much cheaper young guys. They could also be hedging their bet and will rework Albert's deal if they don't pick a tackle or pick up Jake Long. Andy Reid has brought in big name linemen in the past (that's how Jason Peters ended up in Philly) and the Chiefs have over $18M in cap space. Lost in all this talk is that Glen Dorsey and Tyson Jackson are both hugely underperforming their contracts and Lotulelei or Floyd are likely giant upgrades at impact positions. History lines up with this as well: Andy Reid used 6 of his 12 1st round picks with the Eagles on his defensive line and only 1 on an offensive tackle. The Chiefs probably stand to gain the most by cutting Jackson and replacing him with Floyd if the salary cap hit can absorb that. Given Tamba Hali and Justin Houston's performance, a pass rusher would just be crowding the roster here. Looking at Mike Wallace doesn't impact this draft choice, though it would give Andy Reid the kind of dynamic playmaker he had in Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson.
2a. Jacksonville Jaguars - Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
2b. Jacksonville Jaguars - Sharrif Floyd, DE, Florida
Impact FA moves: Cliff Avril, DE
The Jaguars have needs at quarterback and pass rush. There's no passer remotely good enough to take here or even a good bet to beat out Blaine Gabbert/Chad Henne. The best 4-3 defensive end on the board is Ezekiel Ansah. He reminds many of Jason Pierre-Paul. While JPP turned out to be a great pick for the Giants, he also dropped into the middle of the 1st round due to being a very raw prospect. Ansah may be even more so... in other words, this pick is too high for him. Picking in the top 5 means a team has to score a blue chip prospect, so the Jaguars do the next best thing for the team and pick up the top rated offensive tackle. They could also be in play for Floyd or Lotulelei to play as a disruptive, penetrating defensive tackle, but given their offensive ineptitude the last few years I feel they have to look at that side of the ball. The Jaguars can throw some of their over $26M available at pass rush, further reducing the likelyhood they go after Ansah or another defensive end.
3a. Oakland Raiders - Sharrif Floyd, DE, Florida
3b. Oakland Raiders - Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
3c. Oakland Raiders - Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
Impact FA moves: None
The Raiders still need help with their pass rush or more consistency on offense. They have some dynamic skill players and a solid quarterback in Carson Palmer, but have a hard time scoring touchdowns. Joeckel (or Fisher) would definitely help here, but their offense is able to get points (Janikowski helps a lot there). Floyd and Jones both represent dynamic defensive threats. The Raiders can pretty much take any top rated prospect and have made a good pick. They only have about $1M of space under the cap, so it's unlikely they'll make any splashy moves.
4a. Philadelphia Eagles - Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
4b. Philadelphia Eagles - Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
4c. Philadelphia Eagles - Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon
Impact FA moves: Jake Long, OT or Cliff Avril, DE
The Eagles have over $33M in cap space, so they can afford to throw some money at holes in their roster. It's likely Milliner will last this long in the draft and there aren't any truly elite corners availablein free agency. Getting Jake Long could free them up to take Milliner. Dion Jordan is the wildcard: never underestimate the appeal of the familiar. If Chip Kelly liked Jordan at Oregon, he could be leaning very hard towards taking him. If the Eagles want to reload their roster fast, I think they spend money on an aging Freeney and hope he has maybe 2 decent years left.
5a. Detroit Lions - Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
5b. Detroit Lions - Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU
5c. Detroit Lions - Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
Impact FA moves: None
Well, looks like the Lions are out both defensive ends and will probably need a replacement. Milliner fills a huge need for them and would be a good pick. Ansah could is a risk/reward option here if the reward is very high. Werner fell down draft boards and I think Detroit would love to trade back here, but it's unlikely they'll find any trade partners. None of the quarterbacks should be valued this high, and almost all positions have pairs of players so there's no rush for a team to move up and grab one (Mingo and Jordan likely still on the board, Warmack and Cooper, ...). The only attractive player would be Fisher or Joeckel if they are still available. If one is gone, perhaps the Cardinals make a move, but that's not usually their style. Combine that with Detroit not likely selecting a tackle (and certainly not trading out of this spot if they are planning to do so) and the Browns being set at the position and having impact needs, Arizona can safely wait until 7. Detroit relied too much on Stafford's arm and their one-dimensionality reduced their ability to grind out games and turn their offensive yards into points. Warmack would immediately rejuvenate their running game and should merit some serious consideration here.
6a. Cleveland Browns - Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
6b. Cleveland Browns - Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU
6c. New York Jets - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
Impact FA moves: Wes Welker, WR or Mike Wallace, WR or Cliff Avril, DE
Last time around we were all thinking Chip Kelly would end up in Cleveland and bring the west coast system with him and increasing the likelyhood Geno Smith would be in play. I no longer think this is a likely scenario. The best bet to improve this team is to focus on offense, and build around the pieces they trust. Trent Richardson is their back of the future, so it's time to give him a line to run behind. Warmack would give that line a big boost. The upside of Mingo and his more natural fit as an outside linebacker might be too tantalizing here. They could also look at Dion Jordan, Jarvis Jones or Sheldon Richardson, but the value doesn't appear to be there anymore. The other interesting scenario is for the Jets to leapfrog Arizona and get their choice of quarterback. I don't think the Cardinals are picking a passer, but the Jets may not want to take that risk. This works out great for the Browns because they can take Warmack or Cooper at 9 as well and pick up about an extra 3rd round pick. The Browns have the most cap space (over $47M!) and could get a splashy playmaker for their passing game or an impact pass rusher for the next few years.
7a. Arizona Cardinals - Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
7b. Arizona Cardinals - Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
7c. New York Jets - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
Impact FA moves: None
The Cardinals have Levi Brown coming back, but a) he's coming off a serious injury and b) he was never elite. Given the chance to get an elite left tackle prospect, the Cardinals have to pull the trigger. If both Joeckel and Fisher are off the board, they could look to add an impact pass rusher, which would most likely be Jones. Warmack or Cooper is an outside shot in this scenario as well; new Cards' management has said the offensive line is a top priority. If the Jets aren't worried about the Cardinals picking a quarterback, they could trade up to get ahead of Buffalo (who might be regretting the big Ryan Fitzpatrick deal). If both tackles are gone by now, the Cards would do well to accept the offer and pick up an extra 4th rounder.
8a. Buffalo Bills - Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia
8b. Minnesota Vikings - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
Impact FA moves: None
Despite their spending spree last year, the Bills are $18M under the cap ... but I don't think there are any elite players they'd be going after. Their weak layer is the linebacking corps, and it's likely they can reload that through the draft. If their favorite of Ogletree or Te'o is gone, they should market the pick to a team desperate for the first shot at a quarterback if the Jets haven't traded up. The Vikings might be in that group, they are one of the few teams left to pick in the round that might make the move. It'd probably cost them their 2nd and next year's 1st, which Buffalo would love to get.
9a. New York Jets - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
9b. Cleveland Browns - Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
9c. Arizona Cardinals - Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
Impact FA moves: None
While the Jets may fortify some spots in FA and have about $8M of space to do so, I don't think available players line up with their needs. They could take a look at Avril, but no move they make will impact what they do here. If the pick was traded, the trade partner will just take whichever player they wanted is still available. Further trades from this spot are unlikely, again because pairs of players of similar quality are still on the board so teams have no incentive to trade up to grab one until the other is gone.
10a. Tennessee Titans - Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina
10b. Tennessee Titans - Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas
Impact FA moves: Cliff Avril, DE
The Titans were good when CJ2k's name was applicable. Putting Cooper into the line should help get him back to form. Jake Locker is a limited passer and needs to be able to lean on a good running game. I don't see the Titans bailing on him just yet, so a player to help them run better should be the pick. They could also look at the defensive side and help both their pass and run defense by choosing a capable safety. Picking up Cliff Avril should help their mediocre pass rush, and with $18M space under the cap they certainly could do it.
Looks like Cliff Avril is one of the lynchpins of this draft. I'm not convinced that all the highly touted pass rush prospects are going to fly off the board, almost all of them have red flags between being raw, undersized or not performing well at the combine. As much as teams go gaga for quarterbacks, I also think teams will be pretty disciplined and focus on the glut of 2nd round options. When so many of them have question marks, it's best not to overspend and realize each pick is basically a lottery ticket.
Free agency is starting now, let's see how that affects our mock draft!
1a. Kansas City Chiefs - Sharrif Floyd, DE, Florida
1b. Kansas City Chiefs - Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah.
Impact FA moves: Jake Long, OT or Mike Wallace, WR
Lotulelei had some heart irregularity at the combine and didn't get to work. It's a shame, but he didn't need to blow anyone away to remain an elite prospect. Until his heart is deemed actually faulty, I'm working under the assumption that he'll check out. There's a lot of speculation that the Eagles will take Joeckel or Fisher, but franchising Branden Albert suggests otherwise. It's possible they are just renting Albert as insurance for a year with the intention of moving him to the right and drafting their future LT, then getting a new RT in a later round or next year and phasing Albert out. After all, the rookie salaray scale allows teams to replace expensive vets with much cheaper young guys. They could also be hedging their bet and will rework Albert's deal if they don't pick a tackle or pick up Jake Long. Andy Reid has brought in big name linemen in the past (that's how Jason Peters ended up in Philly) and the Chiefs have over $18M in cap space. Lost in all this talk is that Glen Dorsey and Tyson Jackson are both hugely underperforming their contracts and Lotulelei or Floyd are likely giant upgrades at impact positions. History lines up with this as well: Andy Reid used 6 of his 12 1st round picks with the Eagles on his defensive line and only 1 on an offensive tackle. The Chiefs probably stand to gain the most by cutting Jackson and replacing him with Floyd if the salary cap hit can absorb that. Given Tamba Hali and Justin Houston's performance, a pass rusher would just be crowding the roster here. Looking at Mike Wallace doesn't impact this draft choice, though it would give Andy Reid the kind of dynamic playmaker he had in Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson.
2a. Jacksonville Jaguars - Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
2b. Jacksonville Jaguars - Sharrif Floyd, DE, Florida
Impact FA moves: Cliff Avril, DE
The Jaguars have needs at quarterback and pass rush. There's no passer remotely good enough to take here or even a good bet to beat out Blaine Gabbert/Chad Henne. The best 4-3 defensive end on the board is Ezekiel Ansah. He reminds many of Jason Pierre-Paul. While JPP turned out to be a great pick for the Giants, he also dropped into the middle of the 1st round due to being a very raw prospect. Ansah may be even more so... in other words, this pick is too high for him. Picking in the top 5 means a team has to score a blue chip prospect, so the Jaguars do the next best thing for the team and pick up the top rated offensive tackle. They could also be in play for Floyd or Lotulelei to play as a disruptive, penetrating defensive tackle, but given their offensive ineptitude the last few years I feel they have to look at that side of the ball. The Jaguars can throw some of their over $26M available at pass rush, further reducing the likelyhood they go after Ansah or another defensive end.
3a. Oakland Raiders - Sharrif Floyd, DE, Florida
3b. Oakland Raiders - Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
3c. Oakland Raiders - Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
Impact FA moves: None
The Raiders still need help with their pass rush or more consistency on offense. They have some dynamic skill players and a solid quarterback in Carson Palmer, but have a hard time scoring touchdowns. Joeckel (or Fisher) would definitely help here, but their offense is able to get points (Janikowski helps a lot there). Floyd and Jones both represent dynamic defensive threats. The Raiders can pretty much take any top rated prospect and have made a good pick. They only have about $1M of space under the cap, so it's unlikely they'll make any splashy moves.
4a. Philadelphia Eagles - Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
4b. Philadelphia Eagles - Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
4c. Philadelphia Eagles - Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon
Impact FA moves: Jake Long, OT or Cliff Avril, DE
The Eagles have over $33M in cap space, so they can afford to throw some money at holes in their roster. It's likely Milliner will last this long in the draft and there aren't any truly elite corners availablein free agency. Getting Jake Long could free them up to take Milliner. Dion Jordan is the wildcard: never underestimate the appeal of the familiar. If Chip Kelly liked Jordan at Oregon, he could be leaning very hard towards taking him. If the Eagles want to reload their roster fast, I think they spend money on an aging Freeney and hope he has maybe 2 decent years left.
5a. Detroit Lions - Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
5b. Detroit Lions - Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU
5c. Detroit Lions - Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
Impact FA moves: None
Well, looks like the Lions are out both defensive ends and will probably need a replacement. Milliner fills a huge need for them and would be a good pick. Ansah could is a risk/reward option here if the reward is very high. Werner fell down draft boards and I think Detroit would love to trade back here, but it's unlikely they'll find any trade partners. None of the quarterbacks should be valued this high, and almost all positions have pairs of players so there's no rush for a team to move up and grab one (Mingo and Jordan likely still on the board, Warmack and Cooper, ...). The only attractive player would be Fisher or Joeckel if they are still available. If one is gone, perhaps the Cardinals make a move, but that's not usually their style. Combine that with Detroit not likely selecting a tackle (and certainly not trading out of this spot if they are planning to do so) and the Browns being set at the position and having impact needs, Arizona can safely wait until 7. Detroit relied too much on Stafford's arm and their one-dimensionality reduced their ability to grind out games and turn their offensive yards into points. Warmack would immediately rejuvenate their running game and should merit some serious consideration here.
6a. Cleveland Browns - Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
6b. Cleveland Browns - Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU
6c. New York Jets - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
Impact FA moves: Wes Welker, WR or Mike Wallace, WR or Cliff Avril, DE
Last time around we were all thinking Chip Kelly would end up in Cleveland and bring the west coast system with him and increasing the likelyhood Geno Smith would be in play. I no longer think this is a likely scenario. The best bet to improve this team is to focus on offense, and build around the pieces they trust. Trent Richardson is their back of the future, so it's time to give him a line to run behind. Warmack would give that line a big boost. The upside of Mingo and his more natural fit as an outside linebacker might be too tantalizing here. They could also look at Dion Jordan, Jarvis Jones or Sheldon Richardson, but the value doesn't appear to be there anymore. The other interesting scenario is for the Jets to leapfrog Arizona and get their choice of quarterback. I don't think the Cardinals are picking a passer, but the Jets may not want to take that risk. This works out great for the Browns because they can take Warmack or Cooper at 9 as well and pick up about an extra 3rd round pick. The Browns have the most cap space (over $47M!) and could get a splashy playmaker for their passing game or an impact pass rusher for the next few years.
7a. Arizona Cardinals - Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
7b. Arizona Cardinals - Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
7c. New York Jets - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
Impact FA moves: None
The Cardinals have Levi Brown coming back, but a) he's coming off a serious injury and b) he was never elite. Given the chance to get an elite left tackle prospect, the Cardinals have to pull the trigger. If both Joeckel and Fisher are off the board, they could look to add an impact pass rusher, which would most likely be Jones. Warmack or Cooper is an outside shot in this scenario as well; new Cards' management has said the offensive line is a top priority. If the Jets aren't worried about the Cardinals picking a quarterback, they could trade up to get ahead of Buffalo (who might be regretting the big Ryan Fitzpatrick deal). If both tackles are gone by now, the Cards would do well to accept the offer and pick up an extra 4th rounder.
8a. Buffalo Bills - Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia
8b. Minnesota Vikings - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
Impact FA moves: None
Despite their spending spree last year, the Bills are $18M under the cap ... but I don't think there are any elite players they'd be going after. Their weak layer is the linebacking corps, and it's likely they can reload that through the draft. If their favorite of Ogletree or Te'o is gone, they should market the pick to a team desperate for the first shot at a quarterback if the Jets haven't traded up. The Vikings might be in that group, they are one of the few teams left to pick in the round that might make the move. It'd probably cost them their 2nd and next year's 1st, which Buffalo would love to get.
9a. New York Jets - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
9b. Cleveland Browns - Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
9c. Arizona Cardinals - Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
Impact FA moves: None
While the Jets may fortify some spots in FA and have about $8M of space to do so, I don't think available players line up with their needs. They could take a look at Avril, but no move they make will impact what they do here. If the pick was traded, the trade partner will just take whichever player they wanted is still available. Further trades from this spot are unlikely, again because pairs of players of similar quality are still on the board so teams have no incentive to trade up to grab one until the other is gone.
10a. Tennessee Titans - Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina
10b. Tennessee Titans - Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas
Impact FA moves: Cliff Avril, DE
The Titans were good when CJ2k's name was applicable. Putting Cooper into the line should help get him back to form. Jake Locker is a limited passer and needs to be able to lean on a good running game. I don't see the Titans bailing on him just yet, so a player to help them run better should be the pick. They could also look at the defensive side and help both their pass and run defense by choosing a capable safety. Picking up Cliff Avril should help their mediocre pass rush, and with $18M space under the cap they certainly could do it.
Looks like Cliff Avril is one of the lynchpins of this draft. I'm not convinced that all the highly touted pass rush prospects are going to fly off the board, almost all of them have red flags between being raw, undersized or not performing well at the combine. As much as teams go gaga for quarterbacks, I also think teams will be pretty disciplined and focus on the glut of 2nd round options. When so many of them have question marks, it's best not to overspend and realize each pick is basically a lottery ticket.
Free agency is starting now, let's see how that affects our mock draft!
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