Reports say that the Cardinals (despite having clear quarterback issues) were one of the few teams (along with the Cowboys and Seahawks) not at Geno Smith's pro day. Why wouldn't they go? 3 suggestions have been given:
1. They are genuinely not interested
2. They are throwing up smokescreens, but are interested
3. They simply don't think pro days are a valuable research tool
I think option 3 can be thrown out immediately. When every other team, including teams with top notch quarterbacks, shows up, this doesn't add up. The Cardinals are trying to show disinterest, but why so blatantly? Consider the recent moves in free agency:
a. The Bills cut Ryan Fitzpatrick and have nothing going for them
b. The Jets can't be all that excited about Mark Sanchez and are high enough (and have shown a willingness) to make a move
c. The Vikings may be looking for a new player and just traded Percy Harvin for the 25th pick to go with their 23rd pick
Suppose we're pretty sure the the Bills will take Geno Smith if he's there at 8.
In scenario 1, another team could trade to 7 to get Smith. The Jets just need to package a 4th rounder with their 9th, and the Vikings 23rd and 25th comes out just about equal to the 7th pick in draft capital. The Cardinals would like to trade back if a top offensive tackle is no longer available. It's important others believe the Cardinals will not take Geno, otherwise they would trade higher up and the Cardinals don't get to trade back.
In scenario 2, everything lines up the same, but the Cardinals take Geno Smith. Here it's important everyone thought they wouldn't, otherwise they could trade up past the Cardinals.
If other teams think the Cardinals will take Geno Smith, all trade leverage is lost and there's a good chance someone else will trade up and beat them to Geno if they really wanted him.
Friday, March 15, 2013
Friday, March 8, 2013
2013 Draft Mock 2.0
The combine is over and the players who are likely to be franchised have been tagged. The offseason picture is getting a little clearer! Of course there will still be big moves in the next month (both signing and releases before roster bonuses are due), but that's what Mock 3.0 will encompass. Here I'll try to combine some FA move predictions and mocking of the top 10 picks. The Chiefs are still on the clock. They've had a lot of moves this off-season: new coach, new front office, free agent left tackle.
1a. Kansas City Chiefs - Sharrif Floyd, DE, Florida
1b. Kansas City Chiefs - Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah.
Impact FA moves: Jake Long, OT or Mike Wallace, WR
Lotulelei had some heart irregularity at the combine and didn't get to work. It's a shame, but he didn't need to blow anyone away to remain an elite prospect. Until his heart is deemed actually faulty, I'm working under the assumption that he'll check out. There's a lot of speculation that the Eagles will take Joeckel or Fisher, but franchising Branden Albert suggests otherwise. It's possible they are just renting Albert as insurance for a year with the intention of moving him to the right and drafting their future LT, then getting a new RT in a later round or next year and phasing Albert out. After all, the rookie salaray scale allows teams to replace expensive vets with much cheaper young guys. They could also be hedging their bet and will rework Albert's deal if they don't pick a tackle or pick up Jake Long. Andy Reid has brought in big name linemen in the past (that's how Jason Peters ended up in Philly) and the Chiefs have over $18M in cap space. Lost in all this talk is that Glen Dorsey and Tyson Jackson are both hugely underperforming their contracts and Lotulelei or Floyd are likely giant upgrades at impact positions. History lines up with this as well: Andy Reid used 6 of his 12 1st round picks with the Eagles on his defensive line and only 1 on an offensive tackle. The Chiefs probably stand to gain the most by cutting Jackson and replacing him with Floyd if the salary cap hit can absorb that. Given Tamba Hali and Justin Houston's performance, a pass rusher would just be crowding the roster here. Looking at Mike Wallace doesn't impact this draft choice, though it would give Andy Reid the kind of dynamic playmaker he had in Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson.
2a. Jacksonville Jaguars - Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
2b. Jacksonville Jaguars - Sharrif Floyd, DE, Florida
Impact FA moves: Cliff Avril, DE
The Jaguars have needs at quarterback and pass rush. There's no passer remotely good enough to take here or even a good bet to beat out Blaine Gabbert/Chad Henne. The best 4-3 defensive end on the board is Ezekiel Ansah. He reminds many of Jason Pierre-Paul. While JPP turned out to be a great pick for the Giants, he also dropped into the middle of the 1st round due to being a very raw prospect. Ansah may be even more so... in other words, this pick is too high for him. Picking in the top 5 means a team has to score a blue chip prospect, so the Jaguars do the next best thing for the team and pick up the top rated offensive tackle. They could also be in play for Floyd or Lotulelei to play as a disruptive, penetrating defensive tackle, but given their offensive ineptitude the last few years I feel they have to look at that side of the ball. The Jaguars can throw some of their over $26M available at pass rush, further reducing the likelyhood they go after Ansah or another defensive end.
3a. Oakland Raiders - Sharrif Floyd, DE, Florida
3b. Oakland Raiders - Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
3c. Oakland Raiders - Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
Impact FA moves: None
The Raiders still need help with their pass rush or more consistency on offense. They have some dynamic skill players and a solid quarterback in Carson Palmer, but have a hard time scoring touchdowns. Joeckel (or Fisher) would definitely help here, but their offense is able to get points (Janikowski helps a lot there). Floyd and Jones both represent dynamic defensive threats. The Raiders can pretty much take any top rated prospect and have made a good pick. They only have about $1M of space under the cap, so it's unlikely they'll make any splashy moves.
4a. Philadelphia Eagles - Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
4b. Philadelphia Eagles - Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
4c. Philadelphia Eagles - Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon
Impact FA moves: Jake Long, OT or Cliff Avril, DE
The Eagles have over $33M in cap space, so they can afford to throw some money at holes in their roster. It's likely Milliner will last this long in the draft and there aren't any truly elite corners availablein free agency. Getting Jake Long could free them up to take Milliner. Dion Jordan is the wildcard: never underestimate the appeal of the familiar. If Chip Kelly liked Jordan at Oregon, he could be leaning very hard towards taking him. If the Eagles want to reload their roster fast, I think they spend money on an aging Freeney and hope he has maybe 2 decent years left.
5a. Detroit Lions - Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
5b. Detroit Lions - Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU
5c. Detroit Lions - Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
Impact FA moves: None
Well, looks like the Lions are out both defensive ends and will probably need a replacement. Milliner fills a huge need for them and would be a good pick. Ansah could is a risk/reward option here if the reward is very high. Werner fell down draft boards and I think Detroit would love to trade back here, but it's unlikely they'll find any trade partners. None of the quarterbacks should be valued this high, and almost all positions have pairs of players so there's no rush for a team to move up and grab one (Mingo and Jordan likely still on the board, Warmack and Cooper, ...). The only attractive player would be Fisher or Joeckel if they are still available. If one is gone, perhaps the Cardinals make a move, but that's not usually their style. Combine that with Detroit not likely selecting a tackle (and certainly not trading out of this spot if they are planning to do so) and the Browns being set at the position and having impact needs, Arizona can safely wait until 7. Detroit relied too much on Stafford's arm and their one-dimensionality reduced their ability to grind out games and turn their offensive yards into points. Warmack would immediately rejuvenate their running game and should merit some serious consideration here.
6a. Cleveland Browns - Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
6b. Cleveland Browns - Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU
6c. New York Jets - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
Impact FA moves: Wes Welker, WR or Mike Wallace, WR or Cliff Avril, DE
Last time around we were all thinking Chip Kelly would end up in Cleveland and bring the west coast system with him and increasing the likelyhood Geno Smith would be in play. I no longer think this is a likely scenario. The best bet to improve this team is to focus on offense, and build around the pieces they trust. Trent Richardson is their back of the future, so it's time to give him a line to run behind. Warmack would give that line a big boost. The upside of Mingo and his more natural fit as an outside linebacker might be too tantalizing here. They could also look at Dion Jordan, Jarvis Jones or Sheldon Richardson, but the value doesn't appear to be there anymore. The other interesting scenario is for the Jets to leapfrog Arizona and get their choice of quarterback. I don't think the Cardinals are picking a passer, but the Jets may not want to take that risk. This works out great for the Browns because they can take Warmack or Cooper at 9 as well and pick up about an extra 3rd round pick. The Browns have the most cap space (over $47M!) and could get a splashy playmaker for their passing game or an impact pass rusher for the next few years.
7a. Arizona Cardinals - Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
7b. Arizona Cardinals - Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
7c. New York Jets - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
Impact FA moves: None
The Cardinals have Levi Brown coming back, but a) he's coming off a serious injury and b) he was never elite. Given the chance to get an elite left tackle prospect, the Cardinals have to pull the trigger. If both Joeckel and Fisher are off the board, they could look to add an impact pass rusher, which would most likely be Jones. Warmack or Cooper is an outside shot in this scenario as well; new Cards' management has said the offensive line is a top priority. If the Jets aren't worried about the Cardinals picking a quarterback, they could trade up to get ahead of Buffalo (who might be regretting the big Ryan Fitzpatrick deal). If both tackles are gone by now, the Cards would do well to accept the offer and pick up an extra 4th rounder.
8a. Buffalo Bills - Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia
8b. Minnesota Vikings - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
Impact FA moves: None
Despite their spending spree last year, the Bills are $18M under the cap ... but I don't think there are any elite players they'd be going after. Their weak layer is the linebacking corps, and it's likely they can reload that through the draft. If their favorite of Ogletree or Te'o is gone, they should market the pick to a team desperate for the first shot at a quarterback if the Jets haven't traded up. The Vikings might be in that group, they are one of the few teams left to pick in the round that might make the move. It'd probably cost them their 2nd and next year's 1st, which Buffalo would love to get.
9a. New York Jets - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
9b. Cleveland Browns - Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
9c. Arizona Cardinals - Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
Impact FA moves: None
While the Jets may fortify some spots in FA and have about $8M of space to do so, I don't think available players line up with their needs. They could take a look at Avril, but no move they make will impact what they do here. If the pick was traded, the trade partner will just take whichever player they wanted is still available. Further trades from this spot are unlikely, again because pairs of players of similar quality are still on the board so teams have no incentive to trade up to grab one until the other is gone.
10a. Tennessee Titans - Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina
10b. Tennessee Titans - Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas
Impact FA moves: Cliff Avril, DE
The Titans were good when CJ2k's name was applicable. Putting Cooper into the line should help get him back to form. Jake Locker is a limited passer and needs to be able to lean on a good running game. I don't see the Titans bailing on him just yet, so a player to help them run better should be the pick. They could also look at the defensive side and help both their pass and run defense by choosing a capable safety. Picking up Cliff Avril should help their mediocre pass rush, and with $18M space under the cap they certainly could do it.
Looks like Cliff Avril is one of the lynchpins of this draft. I'm not convinced that all the highly touted pass rush prospects are going to fly off the board, almost all of them have red flags between being raw, undersized or not performing well at the combine. As much as teams go gaga for quarterbacks, I also think teams will be pretty disciplined and focus on the glut of 2nd round options. When so many of them have question marks, it's best not to overspend and realize each pick is basically a lottery ticket.
Free agency is starting now, let's see how that affects our mock draft!
1a. Kansas City Chiefs - Sharrif Floyd, DE, Florida
1b. Kansas City Chiefs - Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah.
Impact FA moves: Jake Long, OT or Mike Wallace, WR
Lotulelei had some heart irregularity at the combine and didn't get to work. It's a shame, but he didn't need to blow anyone away to remain an elite prospect. Until his heart is deemed actually faulty, I'm working under the assumption that he'll check out. There's a lot of speculation that the Eagles will take Joeckel or Fisher, but franchising Branden Albert suggests otherwise. It's possible they are just renting Albert as insurance for a year with the intention of moving him to the right and drafting their future LT, then getting a new RT in a later round or next year and phasing Albert out. After all, the rookie salaray scale allows teams to replace expensive vets with much cheaper young guys. They could also be hedging their bet and will rework Albert's deal if they don't pick a tackle or pick up Jake Long. Andy Reid has brought in big name linemen in the past (that's how Jason Peters ended up in Philly) and the Chiefs have over $18M in cap space. Lost in all this talk is that Glen Dorsey and Tyson Jackson are both hugely underperforming their contracts and Lotulelei or Floyd are likely giant upgrades at impact positions. History lines up with this as well: Andy Reid used 6 of his 12 1st round picks with the Eagles on his defensive line and only 1 on an offensive tackle. The Chiefs probably stand to gain the most by cutting Jackson and replacing him with Floyd if the salary cap hit can absorb that. Given Tamba Hali and Justin Houston's performance, a pass rusher would just be crowding the roster here. Looking at Mike Wallace doesn't impact this draft choice, though it would give Andy Reid the kind of dynamic playmaker he had in Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson.
2a. Jacksonville Jaguars - Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
2b. Jacksonville Jaguars - Sharrif Floyd, DE, Florida
Impact FA moves: Cliff Avril, DE
The Jaguars have needs at quarterback and pass rush. There's no passer remotely good enough to take here or even a good bet to beat out Blaine Gabbert/Chad Henne. The best 4-3 defensive end on the board is Ezekiel Ansah. He reminds many of Jason Pierre-Paul. While JPP turned out to be a great pick for the Giants, he also dropped into the middle of the 1st round due to being a very raw prospect. Ansah may be even more so... in other words, this pick is too high for him. Picking in the top 5 means a team has to score a blue chip prospect, so the Jaguars do the next best thing for the team and pick up the top rated offensive tackle. They could also be in play for Floyd or Lotulelei to play as a disruptive, penetrating defensive tackle, but given their offensive ineptitude the last few years I feel they have to look at that side of the ball. The Jaguars can throw some of their over $26M available at pass rush, further reducing the likelyhood they go after Ansah or another defensive end.
3a. Oakland Raiders - Sharrif Floyd, DE, Florida
3b. Oakland Raiders - Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
3c. Oakland Raiders - Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
Impact FA moves: None
The Raiders still need help with their pass rush or more consistency on offense. They have some dynamic skill players and a solid quarterback in Carson Palmer, but have a hard time scoring touchdowns. Joeckel (or Fisher) would definitely help here, but their offense is able to get points (Janikowski helps a lot there). Floyd and Jones both represent dynamic defensive threats. The Raiders can pretty much take any top rated prospect and have made a good pick. They only have about $1M of space under the cap, so it's unlikely they'll make any splashy moves.
4a. Philadelphia Eagles - Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
4b. Philadelphia Eagles - Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
4c. Philadelphia Eagles - Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon
Impact FA moves: Jake Long, OT or Cliff Avril, DE
The Eagles have over $33M in cap space, so they can afford to throw some money at holes in their roster. It's likely Milliner will last this long in the draft and there aren't any truly elite corners availablein free agency. Getting Jake Long could free them up to take Milliner. Dion Jordan is the wildcard: never underestimate the appeal of the familiar. If Chip Kelly liked Jordan at Oregon, he could be leaning very hard towards taking him. If the Eagles want to reload their roster fast, I think they spend money on an aging Freeney and hope he has maybe 2 decent years left.
5a. Detroit Lions - Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
5b. Detroit Lions - Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU
5c. Detroit Lions - Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
Impact FA moves: None
Well, looks like the Lions are out both defensive ends and will probably need a replacement. Milliner fills a huge need for them and would be a good pick. Ansah could is a risk/reward option here if the reward is very high. Werner fell down draft boards and I think Detroit would love to trade back here, but it's unlikely they'll find any trade partners. None of the quarterbacks should be valued this high, and almost all positions have pairs of players so there's no rush for a team to move up and grab one (Mingo and Jordan likely still on the board, Warmack and Cooper, ...). The only attractive player would be Fisher or Joeckel if they are still available. If one is gone, perhaps the Cardinals make a move, but that's not usually their style. Combine that with Detroit not likely selecting a tackle (and certainly not trading out of this spot if they are planning to do so) and the Browns being set at the position and having impact needs, Arizona can safely wait until 7. Detroit relied too much on Stafford's arm and their one-dimensionality reduced their ability to grind out games and turn their offensive yards into points. Warmack would immediately rejuvenate their running game and should merit some serious consideration here.
6a. Cleveland Browns - Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
6b. Cleveland Browns - Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU
6c. New York Jets - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
Impact FA moves: Wes Welker, WR or Mike Wallace, WR or Cliff Avril, DE
Last time around we were all thinking Chip Kelly would end up in Cleveland and bring the west coast system with him and increasing the likelyhood Geno Smith would be in play. I no longer think this is a likely scenario. The best bet to improve this team is to focus on offense, and build around the pieces they trust. Trent Richardson is their back of the future, so it's time to give him a line to run behind. Warmack would give that line a big boost. The upside of Mingo and his more natural fit as an outside linebacker might be too tantalizing here. They could also look at Dion Jordan, Jarvis Jones or Sheldon Richardson, but the value doesn't appear to be there anymore. The other interesting scenario is for the Jets to leapfrog Arizona and get their choice of quarterback. I don't think the Cardinals are picking a passer, but the Jets may not want to take that risk. This works out great for the Browns because they can take Warmack or Cooper at 9 as well and pick up about an extra 3rd round pick. The Browns have the most cap space (over $47M!) and could get a splashy playmaker for their passing game or an impact pass rusher for the next few years.
7a. Arizona Cardinals - Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
7b. Arizona Cardinals - Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
7c. New York Jets - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
Impact FA moves: None
The Cardinals have Levi Brown coming back, but a) he's coming off a serious injury and b) he was never elite. Given the chance to get an elite left tackle prospect, the Cardinals have to pull the trigger. If both Joeckel and Fisher are off the board, they could look to add an impact pass rusher, which would most likely be Jones. Warmack or Cooper is an outside shot in this scenario as well; new Cards' management has said the offensive line is a top priority. If the Jets aren't worried about the Cardinals picking a quarterback, they could trade up to get ahead of Buffalo (who might be regretting the big Ryan Fitzpatrick deal). If both tackles are gone by now, the Cards would do well to accept the offer and pick up an extra 4th rounder.
8a. Buffalo Bills - Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia
8b. Minnesota Vikings - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
Impact FA moves: None
Despite their spending spree last year, the Bills are $18M under the cap ... but I don't think there are any elite players they'd be going after. Their weak layer is the linebacking corps, and it's likely they can reload that through the draft. If their favorite of Ogletree or Te'o is gone, they should market the pick to a team desperate for the first shot at a quarterback if the Jets haven't traded up. The Vikings might be in that group, they are one of the few teams left to pick in the round that might make the move. It'd probably cost them their 2nd and next year's 1st, which Buffalo would love to get.
9a. New York Jets - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
9b. Cleveland Browns - Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
9c. Arizona Cardinals - Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
Impact FA moves: None
While the Jets may fortify some spots in FA and have about $8M of space to do so, I don't think available players line up with their needs. They could take a look at Avril, but no move they make will impact what they do here. If the pick was traded, the trade partner will just take whichever player they wanted is still available. Further trades from this spot are unlikely, again because pairs of players of similar quality are still on the board so teams have no incentive to trade up to grab one until the other is gone.
10a. Tennessee Titans - Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina
10b. Tennessee Titans - Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas
Impact FA moves: Cliff Avril, DE
The Titans were good when CJ2k's name was applicable. Putting Cooper into the line should help get him back to form. Jake Locker is a limited passer and needs to be able to lean on a good running game. I don't see the Titans bailing on him just yet, so a player to help them run better should be the pick. They could also look at the defensive side and help both their pass and run defense by choosing a capable safety. Picking up Cliff Avril should help their mediocre pass rush, and with $18M space under the cap they certainly could do it.
Looks like Cliff Avril is one of the lynchpins of this draft. I'm not convinced that all the highly touted pass rush prospects are going to fly off the board, almost all of them have red flags between being raw, undersized or not performing well at the combine. As much as teams go gaga for quarterbacks, I also think teams will be pretty disciplined and focus on the glut of 2nd round options. When so many of them have question marks, it's best not to overspend and realize each pick is basically a lottery ticket.
Free agency is starting now, let's see how that affects our mock draft!
Saturday, February 16, 2013
Fumbles and yards?
me: the individual fumble is not break even, but there's a very non-zero chance it doesn't affect the outcome of the game
Gary: That seems counter-intuiti
me: sure, but look at facts
Gary: Winning Turnovers + Big plays has a high correlation with winning the game. That's my mental model
me: if your points for = points against, you expect to be 8-8. For every 2 points per game you gain or lose, your expected record changes by 1 game. This is actually a very strongly correlated line and that's the exact value. So the question is, how many points per game does a 1per50 fumbler cost you?
assuming he gets about 15-20 carries a game, that's 1 fumble per 3 games ...
Gary: But not all carries are equal. If you believe that fumbles in the 4th quarter hurt more than in the 1st, and that "the winning team" rushes more in the 4th ...
me: a fumble in the 4th could also be during a blowout when it definitely doesn't matter. In the aggregate, 2 points per game = 1 win change over a season. The intuition gets messed up cuz it's really easy to pin a loss on a fumble, but a lot harder to pin a win on the 4.5 yards per carry on the other 49 carries. However, they both matter. Think of it as an egg race: one guy is faster, the other guy never drops the egg. If the faster guy drops the egg, you think "my god, if he could just hold on to the egg". Assuming he only drops the egg once per 3 races, he still beats the slow guy. That 1 fumble may lead to a loss, sometimes a heart breaking one, but the better rushing average, in the aggregate, will lead to wins [unless the fumble rate is abysmal].
This was an ad-hoc conversation stemmed from the Arizona Cardinals' running back situation. New coach Bruce Arians has called out that the Cardinals' existing running backs are poor in pass protection. I was suggesting they should bring back Tim Hightower (who could probably be had on a minimum contract, and let's ignore his health status for a second). Gary argued that Hightower has serious fumbling issues. I was pointing out that Hightower averaged something like 4.5 yards per carry while the Cards' top backs this year were under 3 per attempt (and let's even ignore that both Wells and Williams struggle, current tense, with fumbles).
The true cost, compared to no fumbles, of Hightower's approximately 1 fumble per 50 attempts is not that much. Given his expected fulltime work load of 15-20 rushes per game, this breaks down to 5 or 6 fumbles over a full season. Each fumble might prevent his offense from scoring a touchdown or field goal, or give up the ball deep in his own territory, leading to an easy field goal or touchdown. Assuming the absolute worst case of every fumble being a touchdown swing, his fumbling would account for a net loss of about 40 points per season. A more realistic scenario is that he costs his offense a touchdown and a field goal, gives up short field position a couple more times (say, another touchdown and field goal) and the remaining 1 or 2 times the turnover leads to no points, nor was the offense near scoring position anyways. This would be a net swing of about 20 points per season, or about 1.2 points per game. Using the regression line, an entire season's worth of fumbles might cost the team a win. The only points you can absolutely pin on fumbles are impending points for the offense. There's no guarantee the other team wouldn't have scored points driving 80 yards instead of 30, after all.
This does not account for the 'momentum' factor, which is basically impossible to quantify. So let's stick to the numbers and conclude that a back with apparent fumblitis might not actually be that big a liability**
I didn't break down the expected outcome of running for 4.5 yards per carry instead of 3, but the former theoretically allows a team to advance the ball and convert on 3rd downs, while the latter leads to a lot of 4th and 1 situations. Judging by the performance of the Cards' offense in 2012, it doesn't work.
** - except in the post-season when "performance in the aggregate" stops being relevant in favor of "nothing matters but this game". Just ask Ray Rice.
Saturday, January 5, 2013
The Warren Buffett Phenomenon
Is Warren Buffett the best investor of all time? Available evidence certainly says yes. If you needed to entrust your money, is he definitely the best guy for the job? Maybe. There are probably numerous others who are very good at managing and growing your money. Every decision they make is based on incomplete data; every choice has an actual and perceived chance of success and actual and perceived probably payoff. The good ones minimize the difference between perceived and actual risks and payoffs, then make the moves that actually have the least risk or the best expected growth.
Even so, no move is 100% and Buffett probably benefits in the pantheon of great investors from some additional good fortune. This is why we think he's the best. His record is the only thing we can measure, but he benefited from his plays actually working out the way they were 'supposed to'. In a similar vein, the good poker player who gets sucked out on the river never gets to show us how good he really is. The winner of the WSOP Main Event is likely a very good player, but they are rarely one of the consensus "best" because a great deal of fortune also goes into winning over such a long stretch of decisions.
Why am I talking about this on a football blog? Because football teams, operations and coaches are all subject to this same phenomenon. For example, if a new coach/GM misses on replacing their aging quarterback, they're likely doomed to a few bad years, thus a bad record, thus a perception they are a bad coach, thus getting fired. But, replacing a quarterback is tough. They are hard to scout, hard to map their skills to NFL defenses, hard to project to an existing offensive system. Even 1st round draft choices are equally likely to be stars, be busts, or wander the league. Staff choices are similar. Some coaches are established commodities: for example by now we can be sure that Wade Phillips is a fantastic defensive coordinator and Bill Belichick is probably the best head coach in the league. However, Phillips did not achieve success as a head coach, and Belichick was sub-500 in a 5-year stint in Cleveland. The point is, there are a lot of variables outside the coach's control, and a lot within. It's hard to separate them all, but we can use the Buffett phenomenon as a more insightful way to think about a coach than just their win-loss record.
Andy Reid is this off-season's hottest available coach. He has a great record in Philadelphia, but made some questionable moves in the last few years. He invested heavily in an aging and fragile Michael Vick. He promoted former offensive line coach Juan Castillo to defensive coordinator. He has not built well through the draft in recent years. Is he slipping? What's going on? Is he good and just having moves not work out? Or was he mediocre but hit on a couple big ones that anyone should be able to prosper with?
Reid started with the Eagles in 1999, and brought Jim Johnson with him to be the defensive coordinator. This was clearly a great move, Johnson was a fantastic coach. In that year, the Eagles also hit the quarterback lottery and drafted Donovan McNabb, who was a great player for 10 years. With these 2 vital pieces in place, Reid performed very well. 2009 was a pivotal year. McNabb was deemed too old and was traded away while they could still get value for him. It was the right move, and the combination of Kolb/Vick looked positive going forwards. Let's keep in mind that there was no guarantee either way: we couldn't know that Vick would have one great season and no more, or that Kolb would keep getting hurt. In this case, the decision to go with Kolb/Vick did not work out the way Reid hoped. Was he wrong to hope that Kolb would build on his promising showings? Probably not. Was he wrong to think Vick would continue to perform well after his miracle comeback? Probably not. In addition to the quarterback situation, longtime defensive coordinator Jim Johnson died. Reid made a curious choice to replace him. Again there was no guarantee it would succeed or fail, but this one didn't have "high probability" written all over it. In the last couple years, the Eagles made some splashy free agent acquisitions. Since Reid had major say in the roster, this one is on him as well. Those moves didn't work out, either due to chemistry or lack of performance from the defensive coordinator spot. Again, since that staffing was Reid's call, it's ultimately a move of his that didn't work out.
Hiring Johnson was a good move, though Johnson had not been a coordinator before. Thus there was less track record by which his success could be known than if Reid had hired a known commodity. This doesn't mean Johnson was a weak candidate, some guys clearly have tremendous upside. However, it's unlikely that the expected odds of success were super high. Even if we give Reid credit for selecting McNabb, history says there was no more than about a one-third chance he was making the right call at the time. Looking back at draft performance over the last 5 years, we see the Eagles doing significantly less than average with their 1st and 2nd round picks. Since Reid had personnel control, this fault falls on him. He's a chronically awful late-game manager. He definitely did well to get value for his own players and/or move on from them before the rest of the league realized they were, in fact, declining. He took the Eagles to numerous NFC Championship games, suggesting he made good use of the roster he'd assembled. Critics will point out he never won the Super Bowl, and perhaps this is an indication of inconsistency. To win the Super Bowl, a team has to maintain a high level of play against good opponents. Perhaps the Eagles never achieved that, perhaps they were outperforming their roster, who knows. Very few teams enjoyed the level of success the Eagles had from about 2000-2008, which suggests that Reid was doing many things well with the guys he did have.
My take is that Reid is great at evaluating and using the guys he has, but is not good at evaluating unknown quantities. Thus, the Eagles didn't draft well and flopped on key staff decisions. Eventually the halo of the McNabb and Johnson decisions would wear off, and here we are. Perhaps Andy Reid is really ideally suited to be an offensive coordinator, or perhaps he needs to be a head coach with less personnel say.
Kansas City needs a quarterback, so we'll get to see how Reid does in identifying their next one.
Even so, no move is 100% and Buffett probably benefits in the pantheon of great investors from some additional good fortune. This is why we think he's the best. His record is the only thing we can measure, but he benefited from his plays actually working out the way they were 'supposed to'. In a similar vein, the good poker player who gets sucked out on the river never gets to show us how good he really is. The winner of the WSOP Main Event is likely a very good player, but they are rarely one of the consensus "best" because a great deal of fortune also goes into winning over such a long stretch of decisions.
Why am I talking about this on a football blog? Because football teams, operations and coaches are all subject to this same phenomenon. For example, if a new coach/GM misses on replacing their aging quarterback, they're likely doomed to a few bad years, thus a bad record, thus a perception they are a bad coach, thus getting fired. But, replacing a quarterback is tough. They are hard to scout, hard to map their skills to NFL defenses, hard to project to an existing offensive system. Even 1st round draft choices are equally likely to be stars, be busts, or wander the league. Staff choices are similar. Some coaches are established commodities: for example by now we can be sure that Wade Phillips is a fantastic defensive coordinator and Bill Belichick is probably the best head coach in the league. However, Phillips did not achieve success as a head coach, and Belichick was sub-500 in a 5-year stint in Cleveland. The point is, there are a lot of variables outside the coach's control, and a lot within. It's hard to separate them all, but we can use the Buffett phenomenon as a more insightful way to think about a coach than just their win-loss record.
Andy Reid is this off-season's hottest available coach. He has a great record in Philadelphia, but made some questionable moves in the last few years. He invested heavily in an aging and fragile Michael Vick. He promoted former offensive line coach Juan Castillo to defensive coordinator. He has not built well through the draft in recent years. Is he slipping? What's going on? Is he good and just having moves not work out? Or was he mediocre but hit on a couple big ones that anyone should be able to prosper with?
Reid started with the Eagles in 1999, and brought Jim Johnson with him to be the defensive coordinator. This was clearly a great move, Johnson was a fantastic coach. In that year, the Eagles also hit the quarterback lottery and drafted Donovan McNabb, who was a great player for 10 years. With these 2 vital pieces in place, Reid performed very well. 2009 was a pivotal year. McNabb was deemed too old and was traded away while they could still get value for him. It was the right move, and the combination of Kolb/Vick looked positive going forwards. Let's keep in mind that there was no guarantee either way: we couldn't know that Vick would have one great season and no more, or that Kolb would keep getting hurt. In this case, the decision to go with Kolb/Vick did not work out the way Reid hoped. Was he wrong to hope that Kolb would build on his promising showings? Probably not. Was he wrong to think Vick would continue to perform well after his miracle comeback? Probably not. In addition to the quarterback situation, longtime defensive coordinator Jim Johnson died. Reid made a curious choice to replace him. Again there was no guarantee it would succeed or fail, but this one didn't have "high probability" written all over it. In the last couple years, the Eagles made some splashy free agent acquisitions. Since Reid had major say in the roster, this one is on him as well. Those moves didn't work out, either due to chemistry or lack of performance from the defensive coordinator spot. Again, since that staffing was Reid's call, it's ultimately a move of his that didn't work out.
Hiring Johnson was a good move, though Johnson had not been a coordinator before. Thus there was less track record by which his success could be known than if Reid had hired a known commodity. This doesn't mean Johnson was a weak candidate, some guys clearly have tremendous upside. However, it's unlikely that the expected odds of success were super high. Even if we give Reid credit for selecting McNabb, history says there was no more than about a one-third chance he was making the right call at the time. Looking back at draft performance over the last 5 years, we see the Eagles doing significantly less than average with their 1st and 2nd round picks. Since Reid had personnel control, this fault falls on him. He's a chronically awful late-game manager. He definitely did well to get value for his own players and/or move on from them before the rest of the league realized they were, in fact, declining. He took the Eagles to numerous NFC Championship games, suggesting he made good use of the roster he'd assembled. Critics will point out he never won the Super Bowl, and perhaps this is an indication of inconsistency. To win the Super Bowl, a team has to maintain a high level of play against good opponents. Perhaps the Eagles never achieved that, perhaps they were outperforming their roster, who knows. Very few teams enjoyed the level of success the Eagles had from about 2000-2008, which suggests that Reid was doing many things well with the guys he did have.
My take is that Reid is great at evaluating and using the guys he has, but is not good at evaluating unknown quantities. Thus, the Eagles didn't draft well and flopped on key staff decisions. Eventually the halo of the McNabb and Johnson decisions would wear off, and here we are. Perhaps Andy Reid is really ideally suited to be an offensive coordinator, or perhaps he needs to be a head coach with less personnel say.
Kansas City needs a quarterback, so we'll get to see how Reid does in identifying their next one.
Preliminary Mock Draft
The regular season has ended, and 20 teams know their exact draft position. Various talking heads have created big boards of various college prospects, and it's time to match them all up. The Chiefs have the top pick, a new coach, and have released their GM. A number of other teams in the top 10 have made organizational changes as well. It'd be great to figure in these effects, but that might be a pipe dream.
We learned last year that trades for specific players are more and more likely. While draft capital is considered about the same as before, the rookie wage scale makes the financial commitment given to a player a couple spots ahead negligible. In the old days, moving up a few spots not only cost draft picks, it cost millions a year. This was not a risk most teams were willing to take. Now, we need to figure possible trades into the mock draft since they have not only become possible, they have become likely. Since the top of the draft often features multiple players at the same positions, it's unlikely we'll see a trade into the top 5.
Kansas City is on the clock. They have a clear need at QB, however there's no consensus top-notch prospect. Geno Smith and Matt Barkley are the only 1st-round prospects per current analysis, and both are terrible fits for blustery, cold winters. Neither is considered a sure-fire top pick. However, both are good fits for a west coast scheme that Andy Reid is likely to bring with him. The draft is loaded with pass rushers and defensive linemen, and there are two very good offensive tackles who could merit a top pick.
1. Kansas City Chiefs - Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
Teams want to capitalize on high picks and fill positions where prime talent is taken early. There's no such QB here, and the Chiefs are already set on their offensive line and pass rushers. Lotulelei has a chance to be a Haloti Ngata-type impact player on the line, and Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson never quite reached expectations. Their rookie contracts are coming to a close, and it's probably time to upgrade on the defensive line.
2a. Jacksonville Jaguars - Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M
2b. Jacksonville Jaguars - Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
The Jaguars would also love to solve their quarterback woes, but their high pick also comes a year late. The Jaguars have a ton of problems, but Chad Henne is decent stopgap. Their leading sack producer was DT Tyson Alualu, and their top defensive end had 3. This is simply unacceptable, so they pick between the top 2 prospects Moore and Jarvis Jones. Moore profiles better as a 4-3 DE. The Jaguars also gave up 50 sacks over the season and Maurice Jones-Drew's 2 backups combined for 2 games with over 50 yards rushing after he was injured. Both issues could be addressed by taking Joeckel.
3a. Oakland Raiders - Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georiga
3b. Oakland Raiders - Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
3c. Oakland Raiders - Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
The Raiders lack an impact pass rusher as well, and Jones is the other elite prospect. This pick could go several ways. Richard Seymour is getting old, but he should be replaceable next year with a mid-1st pick. There's an outside chance they'll pick a disruptive 4-3 DT like Richardson to groom behind him (or pair with him). Their running game wasn't great, but everyone not named Darren McFadden ran fairly effectively. Their offense threw for a lot of yards, gave up about an average number of sacks, but scored few touchdowns. There isn't a game-changing wide receiver to select from, Carson Palmer is still their guy and their offensive line seems adequate but an infusion of top talent would likely boost their offense. The Raiders are in a good spot: between Moore, Jones and Joeckel they are guaranteed to get an impact player. Given the level to which their previous regime depleted their draft capital, they may want to trade back, though I don't think any team that could afford to trade up to this spot needs to do so. The Eagles may consider picking up Jones and using him like Denver uses Von Miller, but they should also be happy to land a replacement for the likely-done Jason Peters, and at least one of these guys should still be on the board at 4.
4a. Philadelphia Eagles - Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
4b. Philadelphia Eagles - Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
4c. Philapdelphia Eagles - Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio St
The Eagles need to shore up their line. The loss of Jason Peters was a huge blow to the team and given his injury and subsequent reinjury, I don't think they can count on him coming back at full capacity. If Joeckel is gone, they can consider Tyler Lewan from Michigan, the next best tackle. The Eagles also took a huge step down in sack production, which Jones would help with. If both are off the board, they could pair a big body like Hankins with Fletcher Cox and copy the Williams wall from the Vikings' days as a dominant run defense. Foles is probably their man going forwards, so QB is not interesting here.
5a. Detroit Lions - Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
5b. Detroit Lions - Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU
5c. Detroit Lions - Bjoern Werner, DE, FSU
The Lions are a statistical enigma. They threw for over 5000 yards, didn't take a ton of sacks, yet only converted that into 22 touchdowns. Their defense was mid-pack in yards, yet they gave up huge points. Their running game stands out for its lack of production. This is partly a result of their almost 2:1 pass:run ratio, but they also didn't run for good average when they did hand the ball off. Chance Warmack will instantly make their line a force and bring balance to the offense, though picking a guard at 5 is unprecedented (the Cardinals took Leonard Davis at 2, but played him at tackle). Cliff Avril, Ndamokung Suh and Nick Fairley are all productive players, but Kyle VandenBosch is getting old. A replacement for him could be prudent as well. Mingo has the higher physical upside, Werner has the better build for a 4-3 and a good body of college production.
6a. Cleveland Browns - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
6b. Cleveland Browns - Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
6c. Cleveland Browns - Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
6d. New York Jets - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
6e. New York Jets - Bjoern Werner, DE, FSU
The Browns cleaned house in the front office, so loyalty to Brandon Weeden is gone. While he flashed some good play, he's nowhere near solidifying his status as the quarterback of the future. Chip Kelly is rumored to be the front-runner for the new coaching job, and his system requires a mobile quarterback. Concerns over Geno Smith's bad-weather performance remain, but the temptation might be too high. They could also give Weeden and Trent Richardson help by improving the run game. Warmack would be a big upgrade to the line and could help create holes for Richardson. The Browns could also invest in a disruptive lineman to pair with big Phil Taylor. Sheldon Richardson should fit this bill perfectly and should improve both their pass and run defense. The Jets are looking to move on from Mark Sanchez, and there's no way they can think Greg McElroy is their future. It would only cost them about a 3rd rounder to move up here from 9, and the Jets have shown they are willing to make big moves. The Jets also need another impact pass rusher to match with Quinton Coples (who seemed to come on at the end of the season), and they could pre-emptively move up to pick Werner.
7a. Arizona Cardinals - Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
7b. Arizona Cardinals - Bjoern Werner, DE, FSU
7c. Arizona Cardinals - Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
7d. New York Jets - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
The Cardinals can go a lot of different ways with this pick. Conventional wisdom says they need a quarterback, but I think the organization and coaching front-runner Ray Horton both believe in Kolb. Furthermore, their defense is good enough that they just need to score 20 a game to be competitive. The Cardinals got a lot of sacks as a team, but their top pass rusher was a blitzing Darryl Washington. None of their outside linebackers provided a consistent pass rush, and Werner would likely be a force for the team. The team could also look at replacements for Darnell Dockett who was limited this year with lingering injuries and is definitely getting older and not as good a fit for the Cardinals' 3-4. Sheldon Richardson is potentially interesting if he's still on the board, but I think the team feels ok with Dave Carter in the lineup if Dockett is gone or loses effectiveness. The absolutely clearest hole is the play of the offensive line. The big question is how the team feels about Levi Brown. He'll likely be back at full strength, but his new contract suggests no one thinks he's an upper echelon pass protector. Lewan is almost certainly a big upgrade. The team should also look at Chance Warmack (and rely on Brown/Nate Potter who played solidly down the stretch) to boost their woeful run game. Since Arizona has multiple options, a trade back to 9 would be attractive for them since one of their good options would still be on the board. Moving up to 7 to ensure they get Smith would only cost the Jets a 3rd/4th swap.
8a. Buffalo Bills - Manti T'eo, ILB, Notre Dame
8b. Minnesota Vikings - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
The Bills have a lot of money invested in their defensive line. They are producing sacks, but not stopping the run well. They need a great linebacker to clean up running plays. T'eo appears to be in the Brian Urlacher mold and could be a cornerstone of this defense for a decade. I'm not sure they should be looking at anyone else. I don't really think the Vikings would move up from the low 20s to 8 for Smith, but they are the one other team left who might be interested. Christian Ponder appears to be plateauing and playing in a dome alleviates Smith's bad weather concerns. It's more likely that they'd be equally interested in Barkley though, and would wait until one of the two top quarterbacks is off the board, then jump up to grab the other. The only other interested teams have already picked and wouldn't have the draft capital to trade back up this high. They're more likely to target a move from the early 2nd into the mid-late 1st round, much like what the Browns did for Brady Quinn in 2007.
9a. New York Jets - Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU
9b. New York Jets - Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio St
9c. Cleveland Browns - Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
9d. Arizona Cardinals - Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
Assuming the Jets elect to address their quarterback issues in free agency, they would not trade up for Geno Smith. They need more pass rush production to maximize the impact their excellent secondary can make. They were also pretty bad against the run this year, which a big run-stuffer like Hankins should help with. If the Bills don't take T'eo, the Jets should snatch him up. He's versatile and both Bart Scott and Calvin Pace are winding their careers down. The Jets need to get some marquee guys in the front seven. The Jets actually need playmakers on offense (Jeremy Kerley was their top receiver and Shonn Greene failed to hit 4.0 yards per carry), but there aren't any worth taking this early. If he's on the board, Warmack could be interesting to help their ground game and get them back to what they did so well just a couple years ago. Trades up are hard to evaluate since the pool of possibilities grows so rapidly once we get out of the blue chip range.
10. Tennessee Titans - Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
The Titans have problems all around. The finished outside the top 20 in both passing and running defense AND offense. Jake Locker is still their guy for now. They can go in almost any direction here. They have a number of solid pass rushers that would be hard to upgrade with the top prospects off the board. The could look at T'eo or Alec Ogletree to add some playmaking in their linebacker corps. But, they would probably benefit the most from a playmaker in the secondary since they gave up 31 passing touchdowns.
Obviously lots will change between now and April. The draftniks are going to be hard at work after bowl season and I'll probably look at this list again if there are any big changes. Of course the scouting combine plays heavily into the evaluation as well and could provide another big flux. Finally, I'll need to re-evaluate needs after free agency plays out.
Friday, April 20, 2012
Draft Lynchpins?
How predictable is a draft? Does one surprise pick send ripples through the rest of the selections? Does it not make as big a dent as people might expect? Does a draft-day trade also turn the experts' mocks on their head? In an effort to answer this question, I'm going to predict the outcomes given a few of the major wild cards and see what picks shake out. It's ridiculous to try and predict the entire 1st round, so I'll cut it off once the mock possibilities get too broad. Without further discussion, let's dive in:
1. Indianapolis - Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
If you can bet on this pick still, do so.
2. Washington - Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
Also a sure thing. Washington didn't give up 1st rounders in the next two drafts to not pick a quarterback. The board now has four prospects of "similar quality": Blackmon, Claiborne, Kalil and Richardson. This is where things get interesting. Rumors say the Vikings are considering three players, who should be Kalil, Blackmon and Claiborne, all of whom fit needs. Claiborne probably doesn't represent enough value to go 3rd. Blackmon doesn't fit the profile of a top-3 pick (based on size/speed). Kalil plays the most premium position and is the safest and most likely pick.
3a. Minnesota - Ryan Kalil, OT, USC
However, the Vikings are also rumored to be shopping the pick, which begs the question of who might be a willing partner. To answer this question, we need to peek at who Cleveland might take with the next pick. If the Vikings don't take Kalil, I think Cleveland considers him, but by all accounts the Browns are going for Trent Richardson. The curveball pick is Ryan Tannehill, though I don't think the Browns are going that route. So, a team would have to covet Richardson or maybe Tannehill to trade up. No team with ample ammo to move up to 3rd pick needs a running back that bad, and all have other needs. Going back to the curveball, might the Dolphins trade up to 3? They would probably need to swap 1st rounders and throw in a 2nd and 3rd (leaving them with another 3rd from the Brandon Marshall trade). Jeff Ireland has been the loser of the offseason, and he could see this as a makeup move. It's a horrible idea, but it just might happen:
3b. Miami (from Minnesota) - Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
4. Cleveland - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
As discussed before, Cleveland makes the expected pick of Trent Richardson. Some argue that Blackmon is in play (to give Colt McCoy weapons), but Cleveland has the #22 and #37 picks as well and can use those on playmakers. Richardson is far and away the best back in the draft, he doesn't fumble, he's not a diva: he'll make Browns fans forget about Peyton Hillis's good days.
5. Tampa Bay - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
The Bucs got a premier receiver in free agency, have a solid run game, and a promising young quarterback. They will be looking to get better on defense. They spent their last pair of 1st and 2nd picks on their defensive line. Since they run a 4-3, that same line needs to be generating pressure. Linebackers in this configuration don't have this much positional value, nor do safeties. Any other team wanting Claiborne would have to leapfrog the Bucs and again we run into positional value issues mixed with prohibitive draft capital cost. In scenario B, Kalil is still on the board and should be considered as the best player available, but the Bucs also invested heavily in their line this off-season. Claiborne is the pick.
6a. St Louis - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma St
6b. St Louis - Ryan Kalil, OT, USC
The Rams sit tight at 6 and land a great player at a position of need. This is the first ripple effect in the draft. In scenario B the Rams have to pull the trigger on Kalil. They have to be honest about the fact that their line did not hold up last season and that Jason Smith isn't reliable enough in either performance or health to move forward with. In scenario A, the Rams get the top weapon for Sam Bradford. If Steve Smith can return to health, this will be a formidable duo. I don't think the Rams would trade down in either case.
7a. Jacksonville - Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
7b. Jacksonville - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma St
The Jaguars were top-10 in both passing and rushing defense, so the emphasis should be on offense, right? In scenario B, this plays out and they get a top-tier playmaker for Blaine Gabbert. They can then move Mike Thomas back to the slot and still use a mid-round pick to bolster their crew if they want. In scenario A they get to bolster the pass rush which was that defense's weak point. Could the Jags make an unexpected pick? They could go with Coples instead of Ingram, but that's an essentially equivalent pick. They could reach for Michael Floyd if Blackmon is off the board. The Jags have reached big in the past for a player they liked at a position of need (ex: Tyson Alualu) so this isn't out of the question. Could they be a trade partner? Scenario A leaves some possibilities open. Conventional wisdom says Blaine Gabbert is a bust, so perhaps the Jags go for Tannehill? Or maybe some other team wants Tannehill enough to jump over the Dolphins? Or maybe the Dolphins don't want to risk getting leapfrogged and swap spots with the Jags? I don't see the Jags replacing a project quarterback after one year with another project quarterback, so let's suppose they don't pick Tannehill. This still leaves trade questions open. Rumor has it Kansas City is interested in Tannehill, but this doesn't make sense. Matt Cassell has been up and down, but I just don't see the Chiefs going this route. Since we came to this conclusion, let's assume Miami does too and stays put.
8a. Miami - Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
8b.1. Minnesota - Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
The draft plays out as Miami had hoped and they land their bust of the future. Oops, quarterback of the future. They aren't likely to trade down and risk not getting the player they wanted. Thinking back a few years ago, the Fins passed on Brady Quinn and reached for Ted Ginn, so there's precedent for a reach for Michael Floyd as well. In scenario B, the Vikings are left with either Riley Reiff, a reach for Michael Floyd, or the top defensive line prospect. Though cornerback is a need for them, no remaining prospect projects this high. Reiff is the pick if need factors in strongly, otherwise they should take Ingram to take the pressure off Jared Allen or Fletcher Cox to reload their impressive defensive line. Historically, the Vikings haven't used a 1st rounder on their offensive line in 10 years, their receiving corp isn't horribly bad so I think they bolster their pass rush in an effort to give the rest of their defense some relief. Again, I'm considering Coples and Ingram interchangeable. The Vikings may entertain trade offers, but they probably use this spot to pick a highly rated prospect.
8b.2. Minnesota - Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
At this point we see both scenarios with the same 8 teams picking and the same 8 players off the board, so we're back to the same single scenario going forward. I've noted in both picks of Ingram that Coples could be the pick instead. We also see Brockers, Cox and Poe being potentially interchangeable picks. For fun, I'll add the more likely alternate pick as scenario C.
9a.1,b.1.1,b.2.1. Carolina - Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi St.
The Panthers go with a big run-stuffer in the middle of their defense. Their offense was humming last year, but the defense was giving up too many points and yards. They could also go with a defensive end since they only had one solid pass rusher last year. Carolina is in a great spot to trade, and both Kansas City and Philadelphia should want Luke Kuechly. The Chiefs can trade up for about a 4th, whereas the Eagles have a bonus 2nd from the Kolb trade to play with. The Chiefs are run by Scott Pioli who has history with the Patriots and we usually see them trading down, not up. I think there's a decent chance the Eagles make the Panthers and offer they can't refuse and jump the Chiefs.
9a.2,b.1.2,b.2.2. Philadelphia (from Carolina) - Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College.
10b.2. Buffalo - Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
10rest. Buffalo - Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
Buffalo wins in all cases. Probably they'll get Reiff who fills a desperate need. Their off-season has amped up their defensive line which should help all aspects of their defense. We've absolutely seen them make luxury picks and Floyd would fit that bill, though pairing him with Steve Johnson should elevate the passing game from average to good. Buffalo should not be in the market to trade this pick.
11*.1. Kansas City - Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College
11*.2. Kansas City - Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis
The Chiefs need help in run support and Kuechly is their ideal guy. If the Eagles jump them and select him, the Chiefs look to land a nose tackle with major upside to replace Kelly Gregg. Poe could be a disruptive player in the Vince Wilfork mold if he pans out, and would form a formidable front line when paired with Tamba Hali and promising Justin Houston. Quality inside linebackers can be found in the 2nd and 3rd round, so getting an impact pick is the goal. The Chiefs should not trade down if Kuechly is on the board (if they do, the Eagles will definitely jump up for him), and Poe becomes enticing as a value pick outside the top 10.
12*.1. Seattle - Dont'a Hightower, LB, Alabama
12*.2. Seattle - Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
Pete Carroll likes players with unusual size, and both options fit the bill. Losing David Hawthorne hurts and Hightower could replace him, though again quality middle linebackers can be found in later rounds. Losing Red Bryant during the season clearly affected Seattle's defense. He probably doesn't have many good seasons left in him so finding an impact disruptive defensive tackle could fit the bill. Trade scenarios could crop up to get Michael Floyd here with speculation that the Cardinals might take him at 13. The Jets, Bengals and Chargers could all be interested, though the Chargers and Bengals probably have more pressing needs. The Jets have Burress and Holmes, though both players have had their issues on the team. Trading up would probably cost them their 3rd and they have no 4th, but those picks are hard to turn into meaningful picks anyways. The Jets should really be looking for help at right tackle though and should stay put and take the best available tackle when their turn comes.
The picks start to get too spread out to track well, but this gives us an idea of some scenarios that might unfold. Interestingly, it doesn't seem like Tannehill has the power to seriously alter the draft landscape. Mostly he just has the ability to make the Dolphins panic into overpaying for him. Of course this assumes that he doesn't fall past Miami in any scenario. Interestingly, it seems the biggest ripple may be caused by which team reaches for Floyd first. He could push Tannehill down the board. If Buffalo takes Floyd with Reiff on the board, Reiff becomes an attractive target for the Seahawks and won't fall past Arizona. In such a scenario, Tannehill could slide all the way to the Browns at #25, or beyond.
1. Indianapolis - Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
If you can bet on this pick still, do so.
2. Washington - Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
Also a sure thing. Washington didn't give up 1st rounders in the next two drafts to not pick a quarterback. The board now has four prospects of "similar quality": Blackmon, Claiborne, Kalil and Richardson. This is where things get interesting. Rumors say the Vikings are considering three players, who should be Kalil, Blackmon and Claiborne, all of whom fit needs. Claiborne probably doesn't represent enough value to go 3rd. Blackmon doesn't fit the profile of a top-3 pick (based on size/speed). Kalil plays the most premium position and is the safest and most likely pick.
3a. Minnesota - Ryan Kalil, OT, USC
However, the Vikings are also rumored to be shopping the pick, which begs the question of who might be a willing partner. To answer this question, we need to peek at who Cleveland might take with the next pick. If the Vikings don't take Kalil, I think Cleveland considers him, but by all accounts the Browns are going for Trent Richardson. The curveball pick is Ryan Tannehill, though I don't think the Browns are going that route. So, a team would have to covet Richardson or maybe Tannehill to trade up. No team with ample ammo to move up to 3rd pick needs a running back that bad, and all have other needs. Going back to the curveball, might the Dolphins trade up to 3? They would probably need to swap 1st rounders and throw in a 2nd and 3rd (leaving them with another 3rd from the Brandon Marshall trade). Jeff Ireland has been the loser of the offseason, and he could see this as a makeup move. It's a horrible idea, but it just might happen:
3b. Miami (from Minnesota) - Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
4. Cleveland - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
As discussed before, Cleveland makes the expected pick of Trent Richardson. Some argue that Blackmon is in play (to give Colt McCoy weapons), but Cleveland has the #22 and #37 picks as well and can use those on playmakers. Richardson is far and away the best back in the draft, he doesn't fumble, he's not a diva: he'll make Browns fans forget about Peyton Hillis's good days.
5. Tampa Bay - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
The Bucs got a premier receiver in free agency, have a solid run game, and a promising young quarterback. They will be looking to get better on defense. They spent their last pair of 1st and 2nd picks on their defensive line. Since they run a 4-3, that same line needs to be generating pressure. Linebackers in this configuration don't have this much positional value, nor do safeties. Any other team wanting Claiborne would have to leapfrog the Bucs and again we run into positional value issues mixed with prohibitive draft capital cost. In scenario B, Kalil is still on the board and should be considered as the best player available, but the Bucs also invested heavily in their line this off-season. Claiborne is the pick.
6a. St Louis - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma St
6b. St Louis - Ryan Kalil, OT, USC
The Rams sit tight at 6 and land a great player at a position of need. This is the first ripple effect in the draft. In scenario B the Rams have to pull the trigger on Kalil. They have to be honest about the fact that their line did not hold up last season and that Jason Smith isn't reliable enough in either performance or health to move forward with. In scenario A, the Rams get the top weapon for Sam Bradford. If Steve Smith can return to health, this will be a formidable duo. I don't think the Rams would trade down in either case.
7a. Jacksonville - Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
7b. Jacksonville - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma St
The Jaguars were top-10 in both passing and rushing defense, so the emphasis should be on offense, right? In scenario B, this plays out and they get a top-tier playmaker for Blaine Gabbert. They can then move Mike Thomas back to the slot and still use a mid-round pick to bolster their crew if they want. In scenario A they get to bolster the pass rush which was that defense's weak point. Could the Jags make an unexpected pick? They could go with Coples instead of Ingram, but that's an essentially equivalent pick. They could reach for Michael Floyd if Blackmon is off the board. The Jags have reached big in the past for a player they liked at a position of need (ex: Tyson Alualu) so this isn't out of the question. Could they be a trade partner? Scenario A leaves some possibilities open. Conventional wisdom says Blaine Gabbert is a bust, so perhaps the Jags go for Tannehill? Or maybe some other team wants Tannehill enough to jump over the Dolphins? Or maybe the Dolphins don't want to risk getting leapfrogged and swap spots with the Jags? I don't see the Jags replacing a project quarterback after one year with another project quarterback, so let's suppose they don't pick Tannehill. This still leaves trade questions open. Rumor has it Kansas City is interested in Tannehill, but this doesn't make sense. Matt Cassell has been up and down, but I just don't see the Chiefs going this route. Since we came to this conclusion, let's assume Miami does too and stays put.
8a. Miami - Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
8b.1. Minnesota - Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
The draft plays out as Miami had hoped and they land their bust of the future. Oops, quarterback of the future. They aren't likely to trade down and risk not getting the player they wanted. Thinking back a few years ago, the Fins passed on Brady Quinn and reached for Ted Ginn, so there's precedent for a reach for Michael Floyd as well. In scenario B, the Vikings are left with either Riley Reiff, a reach for Michael Floyd, or the top defensive line prospect. Though cornerback is a need for them, no remaining prospect projects this high. Reiff is the pick if need factors in strongly, otherwise they should take Ingram to take the pressure off Jared Allen or Fletcher Cox to reload their impressive defensive line. Historically, the Vikings haven't used a 1st rounder on their offensive line in 10 years, their receiving corp isn't horribly bad so I think they bolster their pass rush in an effort to give the rest of their defense some relief. Again, I'm considering Coples and Ingram interchangeable. The Vikings may entertain trade offers, but they probably use this spot to pick a highly rated prospect.
8b.2. Minnesota - Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
At this point we see both scenarios with the same 8 teams picking and the same 8 players off the board, so we're back to the same single scenario going forward. I've noted in both picks of Ingram that Coples could be the pick instead. We also see Brockers, Cox and Poe being potentially interchangeable picks. For fun, I'll add the more likely alternate pick as scenario C.
9a.1,b.1.1,b.2.1. Carolina - Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi St.
The Panthers go with a big run-stuffer in the middle of their defense. Their offense was humming last year, but the defense was giving up too many points and yards. They could also go with a defensive end since they only had one solid pass rusher last year. Carolina is in a great spot to trade, and both Kansas City and Philadelphia should want Luke Kuechly. The Chiefs can trade up for about a 4th, whereas the Eagles have a bonus 2nd from the Kolb trade to play with. The Chiefs are run by Scott Pioli who has history with the Patriots and we usually see them trading down, not up. I think there's a decent chance the Eagles make the Panthers and offer they can't refuse and jump the Chiefs.
9a.2,b.1.2,b.2.2. Philadelphia (from Carolina) - Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College.
10b.2. Buffalo - Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
10rest. Buffalo - Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
Buffalo wins in all cases. Probably they'll get Reiff who fills a desperate need. Their off-season has amped up their defensive line which should help all aspects of their defense. We've absolutely seen them make luxury picks and Floyd would fit that bill, though pairing him with Steve Johnson should elevate the passing game from average to good. Buffalo should not be in the market to trade this pick.
11*.1. Kansas City - Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College
11*.2. Kansas City - Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis
The Chiefs need help in run support and Kuechly is their ideal guy. If the Eagles jump them and select him, the Chiefs look to land a nose tackle with major upside to replace Kelly Gregg. Poe could be a disruptive player in the Vince Wilfork mold if he pans out, and would form a formidable front line when paired with Tamba Hali and promising Justin Houston. Quality inside linebackers can be found in the 2nd and 3rd round, so getting an impact pick is the goal. The Chiefs should not trade down if Kuechly is on the board (if they do, the Eagles will definitely jump up for him), and Poe becomes enticing as a value pick outside the top 10.
12*.1. Seattle - Dont'a Hightower, LB, Alabama
12*.2. Seattle - Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
Pete Carroll likes players with unusual size, and both options fit the bill. Losing David Hawthorne hurts and Hightower could replace him, though again quality middle linebackers can be found in later rounds. Losing Red Bryant during the season clearly affected Seattle's defense. He probably doesn't have many good seasons left in him so finding an impact disruptive defensive tackle could fit the bill. Trade scenarios could crop up to get Michael Floyd here with speculation that the Cardinals might take him at 13. The Jets, Bengals and Chargers could all be interested, though the Chargers and Bengals probably have more pressing needs. The Jets have Burress and Holmes, though both players have had their issues on the team. Trading up would probably cost them their 3rd and they have no 4th, but those picks are hard to turn into meaningful picks anyways. The Jets should really be looking for help at right tackle though and should stay put and take the best available tackle when their turn comes.
The picks start to get too spread out to track well, but this gives us an idea of some scenarios that might unfold. Interestingly, it doesn't seem like Tannehill has the power to seriously alter the draft landscape. Mostly he just has the ability to make the Dolphins panic into overpaying for him. Of course this assumes that he doesn't fall past Miami in any scenario. Interestingly, it seems the biggest ripple may be caused by which team reaches for Floyd first. He could push Tannehill down the board. If Buffalo takes Floyd with Reiff on the board, Reiff becomes an attractive target for the Seahawks and won't fall past Arizona. In such a scenario, Tannehill could slide all the way to the Browns at #25, or beyond.
Saturday, March 3, 2012
Combine Losers: Pass Rushers
Great pass rushers are a scarce commodity. All year long their game tape, hype and production piles up, but it can be hard to project dominance to the next level. The scouting combine offers some hints and glimpses, though I would argue that far too many cases of combine-induced stock rises are fraudulent. This year's list of defensive end and outside linebacker candidates' performances weren't spectacular so teams shouldn't be climbing the draft boards to land them. In fact, I would argue that teams should be downright weary of this group.
A past post examined the measurables that almost all future Pro Bowl pass rushers had in common. Let's take a look at this year's top prospects (per Mel Kiper's top 5 at each position)through the same perspective. The following table highlights 40 yard dash, vertical and broad jump results. I've highlighted each value in green, yellow or red to indicate if the value meets guidelines, misses but has precedent for success, or no player with this measurable has become a Pro Bowler, respectively. 10 yard splits were not yet available but are also an important indicator. I'll try to update the table when those become available.
In short, most of the top prospects failed the combine. All but two players have at least one measurable that is worse than that of any Pro Bowler in the last decade. Nick Perry from USC is the only prospect with a green light across the board, and he's not in Mel's Top 5 (though other draftniks consider him a fringe 1st rounder). The case is similar for outside linebacker prospects: Demario Davis, Ark St (4.61, 10'4, 38.5) is the only player posting elite measurables in all 3 categories. He is not regarded as a great pro prospect though, so teams should regard him as an athlete who is unlikely to be a good football player.
Interestingly, two highly regarded inside linebackers posted elite scores in all 3 drills: Mychal Kendricks, Cal (4.47, 10'7, 39.5) and Luke Kuechly (4.58, 10'3, 38) are both on par with Von Miller, last year's 2nd overall pick.
Teams looking for an upgrade need to skip Coples (whose poor numbers combined with poor effort on the field paint a bad picture) and Ingram, instead taking a chance on Nick Perry, Whitney Mercilus or Bruce Irvin. Upshaw gets an incomplete but is not expected to have good measurables. His lone hope is comparisons to Terrell Suggs (who also didn't test very well), but that seems off-base as Upshaw is more of a pure power player. Teams in the top half of the draft looking for a pass rusher should trade down if possible and use their extra draft ammo to take a chance on players with upside.
A past post examined the measurables that almost all future Pro Bowl pass rushers had in common. Let's take a look at this year's top prospects (per Mel Kiper's top 5 at each position)through the same perspective. The following table highlights 40 yard dash, vertical and broad jump results. I've highlighted each value in green, yellow or red to indicate if the value meets guidelines, misses but has precedent for success, or no player with this measurable has become a Pro Bowler, respectively. 10 yard splits were not yet available but are also an important indicator. I'll try to update the table when those become available.
| Name | Position | 40 dash | Broad jump | Vertical |
| Quinton Coples | DE | 4.78 | 9'1 | 31.5 |
| Melvin Ingram | DE | 4.79 | 9'1 | 34.5 |
| Vinny Curry | DE | 4.98 | 9'2 | 32 |
| Andre Branch | DE | 4.70 | 10'0 | 32.5 |
| Whitney Mercilus | DE | 4.68 | 9'10 | 32 |
| Coutrney Upshaw | OLB | --- | --- | --- |
| Terrell Manning | OLB | 4.79 | 9'6 | 32.5 |
| Zach Brown | OLB | 4.50 | 9'8 | 33.5 |
| Lavonte David | OLB | 4.65 | 9'11 | 36.5 |
| Bruce Irvin | OLB | 4.50 | 10'3 | 33.5 |
| Nick Perry | DE | 4.64 | 10'4 | 38.5 |
In short, most of the top prospects failed the combine. All but two players have at least one measurable that is worse than that of any Pro Bowler in the last decade. Nick Perry from USC is the only prospect with a green light across the board, and he's not in Mel's Top 5 (though other draftniks consider him a fringe 1st rounder). The case is similar for outside linebacker prospects: Demario Davis, Ark St (4.61, 10'4, 38.5) is the only player posting elite measurables in all 3 categories. He is not regarded as a great pro prospect though, so teams should regard him as an athlete who is unlikely to be a good football player.
Interestingly, two highly regarded inside linebackers posted elite scores in all 3 drills: Mychal Kendricks, Cal (4.47, 10'7, 39.5) and Luke Kuechly (4.58, 10'3, 38) are both on par with Von Miller, last year's 2nd overall pick.
Teams looking for an upgrade need to skip Coples (whose poor numbers combined with poor effort on the field paint a bad picture) and Ingram, instead taking a chance on Nick Perry, Whitney Mercilus or Bruce Irvin. Upshaw gets an incomplete but is not expected to have good measurables. His lone hope is comparisons to Terrell Suggs (who also didn't test very well), but that seems off-base as Upshaw is more of a pure power player. Teams in the top half of the draft looking for a pass rusher should trade down if possible and use their extra draft ammo to take a chance on players with upside.
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