Draft Metrics: Quarterbacks

Quarterback is the flagship position of any team, and perhaps more draft effort goes into that selection than any other. Conventional wisdom says franchise quarterbacks are found in the first round, though there are examples of extreme late-round or undrafted successes (Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck, Kurt Warner). So, what's the reality, what should a team expect? For this exercise, I'll be looking at career rating vs draft round for players with at least 100 lifetime pass attemps, and the Sit-Adjusted Games per Year, which compensates for quarterbacks not typically playing their rookie year and a successful pick lasting at least 10 years in the league. The goal is to pick a franchise starter, which is a player who will play most games for the next 10 years or more. I've left players with little expected playtime (last 2 drafts) off the list, and compiled the data for the 1995 through 2007 drafts, which includes 160 total picks. See complete chart here.

69 of the 160 players have less than 100 lifetime pass attempts, in fact 42 of them have never thrown a pass in the NFL. All but a few of these picks came from day 2, about two-thirds of these picks (round 4: 9 of 21, round 5: 12 of 17, round 6: 18 of 28, round 7: 23 of 31) go virtually unused. Picks from the first 4 rounds fare considerably better at getting on the field, so I will focus the discussion on these rounds.


Round 4:
12 of 21 players have thrown at least 100 NFL passes. There are a few notable successes (David Garrard, Kyle Orton). A few others have turned in solid performances in limited time (Seneca Wallace, Sage Rosenfels, Aaron Brooks), but most are weak backups or never see the field.

Round 3:
14 of 18 quarterbacks have thrown at least 100 NFL passes (exceptions are Giovanni Carmazzi, David Greene, Charlie Whitehurst and Dave Ragone), but only 2 have become regular starters (Trent Edwards and Matt Schaub), and several others have gotten spot duty but been displaced (Brian Griese, Josh McCown, Charlie Frye, Chris Simms). Most become adequate short-term backups. This round stacks up much like round 4.

Round 2:
12 of 14 have thrown at least 100 NFL passes (Marques Tuiasosopo, Drew Stanton). Only 2 were regular starters (Drew Brees, Jake Plummer), and several others played significant time as starters (Kordell Stewart, Charlie Batch, Tarvaris Jackson). The bulk are again relegated to adequate backup duty, though career ratings more consistently hover in the 70s (instead of ranging down to about 60 for round 3 picks).

Round 1:
Drumroll please, for the obvious conclusion. 30 of 31 quarterbacks have gotten on the field for at least a season's worth of games (Jim Druckenmiller is the dubious exception). 5 have posted career ratings over 90, and 6 more are over 80 (for comparison, Dan Marino and Brett Favre are 86.4 and 86.6, respectively). 11 more are over 70, and only two are under 60 (Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith). The average for this group is about 75. Drafting a quarterback in the first round has about equal chances of netting a guy who can win games, who can manage, and who is a bust.



Top franchise quarterbacks come primarily from round 1. Picking in round 2 most likely gets you a solid backup, rounds 3 and 4 net players you can use in a pinch, while rounds 5 through 7 are probably better spent on any other position.