Linebackers are the multi-tool of the defense. Some come blitzing off the edge, others fill running lanes, while some frequently drop back in coverage. The wide variety (or combination) of objectives makes them hard to compare, so I'll be leaning on pro-football-reference.com's Career Approximate Value (CarAV) to help me rank players. Similar to defensive backs, I've broken down picks between 2000 and 2008 into starter quality (starts at least 80% of seasons), journeyman (at least 50% of seasons) and the rest. I've correlated these with CarAV ranges to get an idea of what level of play is required for each bucket, and will look at player yields from the draft using these points of reference.
By inspecting the list of players, the 'elite' range for CarAV is above 9, and 'good' is above 7.5. Starter quality players average about 6, so I'll consider this the cutoff for an 'adequate' starter. The bottom third of the journeyman range is 4.5, which will become the cutoff for a bust ('backup'). Now let's see what the data shows.
Round 7:
Of 45 picks, there are 2 backup level players.
Round 6:
Of 37 picks, there are 1 good, 2 adequate and 1 backup players.
Round 5:
Of 44 picks, there are 3 adequate and 3 backup players.
Round 4:
Of 42 picks, there are 5 adequate and 4 backup players.
Round 3:
Of 53 picks, there are 1 elite, 1 good, 4 adequate and 6 backup players.
Round 2:
Of 39 picks, there are 3 elite, 2 good, 8 adequate and 5 backup players.
Round 1:
Of 27 picks, there are 5 elite, 6 good, 6 adequate and 5 backup players. 5 players were busts.
Conclusion:
We see the similar trend of little differentiation in rounds 5 through 7. Less than 5% of picks are of adequate starting caliber, and only another 5% are destined to backup duty. In rounds 3 and 4, the odds of each double, but even building depth is a slim proposition. Things change drastically from here though, as nearly half of 2nd round picks seeing significant action, with 1 in 3 being starter quality. We also see about 1 in 5 picks end up in the good or elite category. Round 1 yields about 2 starters per 3 picks and those are equally likely to be good or elite. The bust rate is less than 1 in 5.
Based on past pick history, teams should not use a top-10 pick on a linebacker. Brian Urlacher is the only good or elite pick in that range (#9). The other 4 (Arrington, Hawk, Sims, Rivers) have been quality players, but didn't reach the higher status for one reason or another (Arrington and Rivers missed significant time to injury). Looking more closely at the draft history, the quality starts to drop off pretty significantly by the middle of the 2nd. The range is just right for every team to get one good shot at a starting linebacker.
Friday, April 9, 2010
Thursday, April 8, 2010
Draft Metrics: Defensive Backs
What good is a strong pass rush if there aren't players to make a quarterback pay for poor passes? Defensive backs are the last line of defense, and have the largest ability to make big plays on the ball, but they're also the ones who get singled out for being burned over the top. So, what can we expect from a player? Most seasons, the NFL leader has 8-10 interceptions. The names are familiar: Darren Sharper, Ed Reed, Antonio Cromartie, Champ Bailey ... and yet, that level of success is incredibly hard to maintain. In fact, the highest per-season interception average over the last decade is just 5.8 (Ed Reed), and only two other players (Asante Samuel and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie) are at 5 per season. 7 more players are between 4 and 5, and there aren't quite enough players total (28) to leave every NFL team with one player averaging at least 3 interceptions per year.
We'll define players averaging 4 or more picks as 'elite' playmakers, 3 or more as 'good', 2 or more as 'adequate' and the rest are freely replacable. Any player starting over 80% of his seasons (to allow for one injured or bad season) in the league will be labeled a 'career starter', and players starting at least 50% of the season will be labeled 'fringe starters'. Of 485 picks made between 1999 and 2008, only 48 meet this criteria. So, based on picks made from 1999 to 2008, where should teams look to find these players?
See full data here.
Round 7:
Of 70 picks, 3 fall into the adequate playmaker category and all others are replacable. 1 player (Finnegan) has made 1 Pro Bowl. 1 player is a career starter and 6 are fringe.
Round 6:
Of 71 picks, 2 are adequate playmakers and all others are replacable. 1 player (Bethea) has made 1 Pro Bowl. 2 players are career starters and 1 is fringe.
Round 5:
Of 69 picks, 4 are adequate playmakers, and 1 player (Azumah) has made 1 Pro Bowl. 3 players are career starters. 3 are career starters, 4 are fringe.
Round 4:
Of 79 picks, 1 (Samuel) is an elite playmaker, 3 more (A.Henry, Vasher, Rhodes) are good and 5 more are adequate. There are 5 Pro Bowl appearances from this group (Samuel: 3, Vasher: 1, McGee: 1). 5 are career starters, 9 are fringe.
Round 3:
Of 67 picks, 2 (Atogwe, Wesley) are good playmakers, and 6 more are adequate. Wilson has made 3 Pro Bowls, C.Hope has made 1. 7 are career starters, 8 are fringe.
Round 2:
Of 73 picks, 1 (Mathis) is elite, 5 are good, and 14 are adequate playmakers. There are 13 Pro Bowl selections from this group, though the 2 belonging to Devin Hester are not for playing defense. 10 are career starters, 32 are fringe.
Round 1:
Of 56 selections, 8 are elite, 7 are good and 14 are adequate. 47 Pro Bowl spots over the last decade are from this group. 20 are career starters, 19 are fringe.
Defensive backs show a fast dropoff in playmaking skill and starting caliber through the rounds. Rounds 5-7 are essentially interchangable, yielding 6 career starters, 3 Pro Bowls and no good or elite playmakers in 210 tries. Rounds 3 and 4 contain 12 career starters, 19 fringe, 8 Pro Bowls, 1 elite and 5 good playmakers in 146 tries. The odds of an impact player stay safely under 10 percent. Round 2 improves the odds, but there's still only about a 30 percent chance of picking up a playmaker, and only about half of those stick as career starters.
Round 1 drastically improves the odds of picking up a playmaker who becomes a starter over a career. Bust rates are very high, barely 1 in 3 first rounders reach this level. Another 1 in 3 are shuffled in and out of lineups, relegated to Mel Kiper's assessment that they are not the long-term future of the position and an upgrade could be made. But Mel, the odds of the new pick beating them out just isn't that high.
It seems drafting defensive backs is a constant struggle, and teams picking well need to treasure that player. Even for just quality depth, picks should come from the top 2 rounds. Because of the high risk involved, these players should not be picked so high that their contracts become prohibitive. A smart team must realize there's a good chance their selection will not pan out, and has to be ready to move on in a few years.
We'll define players averaging 4 or more picks as 'elite' playmakers, 3 or more as 'good', 2 or more as 'adequate' and the rest are freely replacable. Any player starting over 80% of his seasons (to allow for one injured or bad season) in the league will be labeled a 'career starter', and players starting at least 50% of the season will be labeled 'fringe starters'. Of 485 picks made between 1999 and 2008, only 48 meet this criteria. So, based on picks made from 1999 to 2008, where should teams look to find these players?
See full data here.
Round 7:
Of 70 picks, 3 fall into the adequate playmaker category and all others are replacable. 1 player (Finnegan) has made 1 Pro Bowl. 1 player is a career starter and 6 are fringe.
Round 6:
Of 71 picks, 2 are adequate playmakers and all others are replacable. 1 player (Bethea) has made 1 Pro Bowl. 2 players are career starters and 1 is fringe.
Round 5:
Of 69 picks, 4 are adequate playmakers, and 1 player (Azumah) has made 1 Pro Bowl. 3 players are career starters. 3 are career starters, 4 are fringe.
Round 4:
Of 79 picks, 1 (Samuel) is an elite playmaker, 3 more (A.Henry, Vasher, Rhodes) are good and 5 more are adequate. There are 5 Pro Bowl appearances from this group (Samuel: 3, Vasher: 1, McGee: 1). 5 are career starters, 9 are fringe.
Round 3:
Of 67 picks, 2 (Atogwe, Wesley) are good playmakers, and 6 more are adequate. Wilson has made 3 Pro Bowls, C.Hope has made 1. 7 are career starters, 8 are fringe.
Round 2:
Of 73 picks, 1 (Mathis) is elite, 5 are good, and 14 are adequate playmakers. There are 13 Pro Bowl selections from this group, though the 2 belonging to Devin Hester are not for playing defense. 10 are career starters, 32 are fringe.
Round 1:
Of 56 selections, 8 are elite, 7 are good and 14 are adequate. 47 Pro Bowl spots over the last decade are from this group. 20 are career starters, 19 are fringe.
Defensive backs show a fast dropoff in playmaking skill and starting caliber through the rounds. Rounds 5-7 are essentially interchangable, yielding 6 career starters, 3 Pro Bowls and no good or elite playmakers in 210 tries. Rounds 3 and 4 contain 12 career starters, 19 fringe, 8 Pro Bowls, 1 elite and 5 good playmakers in 146 tries. The odds of an impact player stay safely under 10 percent. Round 2 improves the odds, but there's still only about a 30 percent chance of picking up a playmaker, and only about half of those stick as career starters.
Round 1 drastically improves the odds of picking up a playmaker who becomes a starter over a career. Bust rates are very high, barely 1 in 3 first rounders reach this level. Another 1 in 3 are shuffled in and out of lineups, relegated to Mel Kiper's assessment that they are not the long-term future of the position and an upgrade could be made. But Mel, the odds of the new pick beating them out just isn't that high.
It seems drafting defensive backs is a constant struggle, and teams picking well need to treasure that player. Even for just quality depth, picks should come from the top 2 rounds. Because of the high risk involved, these players should not be picked so high that their contracts become prohibitive. A smart team must realize there's a good chance their selection will not pan out, and has to be ready to move on in a few years.
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Draft Metrics: Center
The center is the quarterback of the offensive line, and a great player in the middle can really gel the line into a cohesive front. However, centers are valued even less than guards, only 5 having been selected in the 1st round between 1996 and 2008. Yet, finding a center is non-trivial, there are only about 2 starting-caliber centers per draft. I am using the same groupings as for tackles. Full data is here.
Round 7:
Of 23 selections, 2 (K.Houser, E.Amano) are top, 1 is a solid starter and 5 are backups.
Round 6:
Of 17 selections, 1 (J.Sullivan) is top, 2 are solid starters and 5 are backups.
Round 5:
Of 12 selections, 2 (R.Pontbriand, D.Koppen) are top and 2 are solid. 4 more are backups.
Round 4:
Of 13 selections, 1 (K.Lichtensteiger) is a top, 4 are solid starters. 4 more are backups.
Round 3:
Quality picks up a lot here, of 10 selections, 1 (A.Treu) is a top and 7 more are solid starters.
Round 2:
Stacks up like round 2, of 9 selections, 2 (S.Satele, D.Raiola) are top and 3 are solid starters. 3 more are backups.
Round 1:
Only 5 picks have come from round 1, and they have all panned out. 1 (N.Mangold) is a top and the other 4 are solid starters.
Conclusion:
Quality is spread evenly on the first day, with 75% panning out as at least solid starters. Rounds 4 and 5 present about a one-third chance each of picking up a starter or a quality backup. Odds diminish by about half in the last 2 rounds. Teams looking for a starter should stay disciplined and not pick in the first 2 rounds. In 9 of the 13 years, the top player came from the 3rd round or later, and in 2 of the remaining years there was still a starting-quality player available at that time in the draft.
Round 7:
Of 23 selections, 2 (K.Houser, E.Amano) are top, 1 is a solid starter and 5 are backups.
Round 6:
Of 17 selections, 1 (J.Sullivan) is top, 2 are solid starters and 5 are backups.
Round 5:
Of 12 selections, 2 (R.Pontbriand, D.Koppen) are top and 2 are solid. 4 more are backups.
Round 4:
Of 13 selections, 1 (K.Lichtensteiger) is a top, 4 are solid starters. 4 more are backups.
Round 3:
Quality picks up a lot here, of 10 selections, 1 (A.Treu) is a top and 7 more are solid starters.
Round 2:
Stacks up like round 2, of 9 selections, 2 (S.Satele, D.Raiola) are top and 3 are solid starters. 3 more are backups.
Round 1:
Only 5 picks have come from round 1, and they have all panned out. 1 (N.Mangold) is a top and the other 4 are solid starters.
Conclusion:
Quality is spread evenly on the first day, with 75% panning out as at least solid starters. Rounds 4 and 5 present about a one-third chance each of picking up a starter or a quality backup. Odds diminish by about half in the last 2 rounds. Teams looking for a starter should stay disciplined and not pick in the first 2 rounds. In 9 of the 13 years, the top player came from the 3rd round or later, and in 2 of the remaining years there was still a starting-quality player available at that time in the draft.
Draft Metrics: Offensive Guard
Guards set the tone for the offensive line. They are the mean ones, the maulers, and tend to have the biggest impact in establishing a physical running attack. Guards are rarely selected in the 1st round, in fact each year averages 1 player taken with a top pick. I'm going to use the same bucketing as for tackles. As expected (since they have similar career lengths as and play every down like tackles), the buckets contain similar hit rates overall. Of 201 selections, we have 18 top, 30 adequate and 47 stopgap starters. 106 (about half) are busts. Full data here.
Round 7:
The last round shows a run on guards. Of 52 selections, 5 are adequate and 4 are stopgap starters. This has been a significantly weaker round for picks than any other.
Round 6:
Of 24 selections, 2 (M.Rivera, R.Hadnot) are top, 2 are adequate and 5 are stopgap starters.
Round 5:
Of 34 selections, 3 (D.Diehl, J.Scott, B.Olson) are top, 7 are adequate and 5 are stopgap.
Round 4:
Of 29 selections, 5 are adequate and 11 are stopgap.
Round 3:
Of 26 selections, 3 are top, 2 more are adequate and 10 more are stopgap.
Round 2:
The quality picks up drastically in the top 2 rounds. Of 23 selections, 7 are top, 4 more are adequate and 8 more are stopgap. The starter hit rate jumps suddenly over 50 percent, whereas it's 25% or lower in the later rounds.
Round 1:
There have only been 13 1st round selections, which reflects the relatively lower value assigned to guards compared to some other positions. Of these selections, 3 are top, 6 are adequate and the remaining 4 are stopgap quality.
Conclusion:
Rounds 3 through 6 are a good place to add depth with the possibility of more. 21% of selections in this range end up being at least adequate starters, and another 27% are quality backups. Round 2 yields about half starters, and almost all picks are at least a quality roster spot. Paralleling tackles, two-thirds of Pro Bowl selections are 1st rounders, but teams can build effectively using 2nd-round picks to save money, or assembling depth and developing starters from rounds 3 and on.
Round 7:
The last round shows a run on guards. Of 52 selections, 5 are adequate and 4 are stopgap starters. This has been a significantly weaker round for picks than any other.
Round 6:
Of 24 selections, 2 (M.Rivera, R.Hadnot) are top, 2 are adequate and 5 are stopgap starters.
Round 5:
Of 34 selections, 3 (D.Diehl, J.Scott, B.Olson) are top, 7 are adequate and 5 are stopgap.
Round 4:
Of 29 selections, 5 are adequate and 11 are stopgap.
Round 3:
Of 26 selections, 3 are top, 2 more are adequate and 10 more are stopgap.
Round 2:
The quality picks up drastically in the top 2 rounds. Of 23 selections, 7 are top, 4 more are adequate and 8 more are stopgap. The starter hit rate jumps suddenly over 50 percent, whereas it's 25% or lower in the later rounds.
Round 1:
There have only been 13 1st round selections, which reflects the relatively lower value assigned to guards compared to some other positions. Of these selections, 3 are top, 6 are adequate and the remaining 4 are stopgap quality.
Conclusion:
Rounds 3 through 6 are a good place to add depth with the possibility of more. 21% of selections in this range end up being at least adequate starters, and another 27% are quality backups. Round 2 yields about half starters, and almost all picks are at least a quality roster spot. Paralleling tackles, two-thirds of Pro Bowl selections are 1st rounders, but teams can build effectively using 2nd-round picks to save money, or assembling depth and developing starters from rounds 3 and on.
Draft Metrics: Offensive Tackle
Most teams approach building their offense through the trenches, specifically focusing on the offensive tackle. A dominant player can lock down the position for over a decade, and positively impact both the running and passing games. For this study, I've taken draft data from 1996 to 2008 (2009 data hadn't been updated yet). In assessing a player's performance, I'm looking at two tiers: games played per years available to judge whether a player is starting caliber, and Pro Bowls per year available to screen out elite players.
There were 256 tackles selected between 1996 and 2008. 32 of these have played 15 or more games per season (top starter) over their career, and 43 more play 12 or more games per season (adequate starter). An additional 54 appear in more than 6 games (stopgap starter/backup). The remaining half of selections are backups at best, and should be trivially replacable. Full data is here.
Round 7:
Of 41 selections, 1* is strong (J.Richard), 5 more are adequate, and 5 more are stopgap solutions.
Round 6:
Of 39 selections, 1 is strong (C.Johnson), 1 is adequate and 4 are stopgaps.
Round 5:
Of 34 selections, 1* is strong (C.Nicks), 2 are adequate and 8 are stopgaps.
*- both players have been in the league one year, so longterm success isn't guaranteed yet.
Round 4:
We start to see the quality pick up a little. Of 35 selections, 2 are strong (J.Evans, J.Runyan), 6 are adequate and 9 more are stopgaps. Both strong players have made a Pro Bowl, the lowest picks earning this distinction.
Round 3:
Looks much like round 4. Of 35 selections, 3 (A.Snyder, E.Winston, M.Starks) are strong, 7 are adequate and 9 can plug a hole in a lineup.
Round 2:
A noticeable increase in quality again. Of 28 selections, we see 7 strong players, 11 adequate starts, and 6 more stopgaps. Only 4 players (M.Pearson, W.Justice, J.Roque, J.Rogers) in 13 years fall below stopgap. We also see numerous Pro Bowl-level players (M.Roos, M.McNeill, F.Adams, C.Clifton, M.Light, ... )
Round 1:
Scouts earn their paychecks for this position. Of 44 selections, 17 are strong starters, 11 more are adequate and 11 are stopgaps. 5 players are busts. While the bucket numbers are pretty close to round 2, round 1 tackles have earned a combined 53 Pro Bowl nods vs 13 for round 2 picks.
Conclusion:
The late rounds produce about one starter per 10 picks, so don't get your hopes too high for that raw prospect. However, another 1 in 7 picks become decent backups, so there's a combined 1 in 4 chance your team will find a quality roster player here. The odds roughly double when picking in the 3rd and 4th round; per 4 players, 1 will be a starter, another will be a backup. 2 out of 3 players from the top rounds will be a solid starter or better. Though Pro Bowl selections are dominated by 1st rounders, a savvy team can build a strong line with 2nd-round picks and keep costs considerably lower.
Top offensive tackles should be located in the first two rounds, but upgrades to weak players can be readily found in the middle of the draft, and depth behind an otherwise solid line can be addressed with late-round picks.
There were 256 tackles selected between 1996 and 2008. 32 of these have played 15 or more games per season (top starter) over their career, and 43 more play 12 or more games per season (adequate starter). An additional 54 appear in more than 6 games (stopgap starter/backup). The remaining half of selections are backups at best, and should be trivially replacable. Full data is here.
Round 7:
Of 41 selections, 1* is strong (J.Richard), 5 more are adequate, and 5 more are stopgap solutions.
Round 6:
Of 39 selections, 1 is strong (C.Johnson), 1 is adequate and 4 are stopgaps.
Round 5:
Of 34 selections, 1* is strong (C.Nicks), 2 are adequate and 8 are stopgaps.
*- both players have been in the league one year, so longterm success isn't guaranteed yet.
Round 4:
We start to see the quality pick up a little. Of 35 selections, 2 are strong (J.Evans, J.Runyan), 6 are adequate and 9 more are stopgaps. Both strong players have made a Pro Bowl, the lowest picks earning this distinction.
Round 3:
Looks much like round 4. Of 35 selections, 3 (A.Snyder, E.Winston, M.Starks) are strong, 7 are adequate and 9 can plug a hole in a lineup.
Round 2:
A noticeable increase in quality again. Of 28 selections, we see 7 strong players, 11 adequate starts, and 6 more stopgaps. Only 4 players (M.Pearson, W.Justice, J.Roque, J.Rogers) in 13 years fall below stopgap. We also see numerous Pro Bowl-level players (M.Roos, M.McNeill, F.Adams, C.Clifton, M.Light, ... )
Round 1:
Scouts earn their paychecks for this position. Of 44 selections, 17 are strong starters, 11 more are adequate and 11 are stopgaps. 5 players are busts. While the bucket numbers are pretty close to round 2, round 1 tackles have earned a combined 53 Pro Bowl nods vs 13 for round 2 picks.
Conclusion:
The late rounds produce about one starter per 10 picks, so don't get your hopes too high for that raw prospect. However, another 1 in 7 picks become decent backups, so there's a combined 1 in 4 chance your team will find a quality roster player here. The odds roughly double when picking in the 3rd and 4th round; per 4 players, 1 will be a starter, another will be a backup. 2 out of 3 players from the top rounds will be a solid starter or better. Though Pro Bowl selections are dominated by 1st rounders, a savvy team can build a strong line with 2nd-round picks and keep costs considerably lower.
Top offensive tackles should be located in the first two rounds, but upgrades to weak players can be readily found in the middle of the draft, and depth behind an otherwise solid line can be addressed with late-round picks.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Draft Metrics: Defensive Ends
Defensive end is a position dedicated to producing sacks, and a dominant player can single-handedly elevate a defense. However, such dominant players are rare. How rare? There have been 223 defensive ends selected this decade, but only 4 (Allen, Dumervil, Freeney, Peppers) average double-digit sacks per year. There are 7 more players at over 8 sacks per year (elite), and 11 more over 6 (strong presence), and 20 more over 4 (solid pass rusher). What does this mean? In other words, each draft contains about 1 8-sack, 1 6-sack and 2 4-sack players. Only two players from this decade (LaBoy, K.Edwards) averaging 4 sacks per year failed to make a roster. The halfway point is about 2 sacks per year, anyone under this I'll consider a bust.
I am using sacks per year available to compensate for players who have failed to make rosters in some of the years since they have been drafted. Note that I'm only evaluating these players as pass rushers. Some players are moved to DT or LB positions where pass rushing is no longer a primary duty. See full data here
Round 7:
Of 36 players, 2 players (McCray, Ratliff) turned out solid and 31 busted.
Round 6:
Of 34 players, 1 player (T.Scott) turned out strong, and 31 busted.
Round 5:
Of 23 players, 2 players (T.Cole, R.Mathis) turned out elite, 2 (K.G.Biamila, Kampman) are strong and 1 more is solid. 13 players busted.
Round 4:
Of 30 players, 2 (J.Allen, Dumervil) are elite, 1 (S.Philips) is strong, and 3 more are solid. 19 players were busts.
Round 3:
Of 25 players, there are 4 solid (Tuck, Burgess, Hayward, Shaughnessy), and 15 busted.
Round 2:
Of 35 players, 2 (Woodley, Schobel) are elite, 2 (Umeniyora, D.Howard) are strong and 4 more are solid. 14 players are busts.
Round 1:
Of 40 players, 5 (Freeney, Peppers, M.Williams, Abraham, W.Smith) are elite, 5 (A.Carter, Sh.Ellis, Hali, Wimbley, J.Smith) are strong and 6 more are solid. 16 players are busts.
Conclusion:
Pass rushers have a very high bust rate. Even in the first round, only 25 and 40 percent turn out strong or solid, respectively. Drafting across the first 2 rounds yields starters about 30% of the time, and 40% bust.
Drafting in the middle three rounds yields a solid starter nearly 20 percent of the time (with a similar ratio of strong and elite rushers). Bust rates increase to 60%, but mid-round salaries are cheap, so it appears teams are better off spending several middle round picks on high-risk/high-reward prospects than trying to get the highly touted player.
I am using sacks per year available to compensate for players who have failed to make rosters in some of the years since they have been drafted. Note that I'm only evaluating these players as pass rushers. Some players are moved to DT or LB positions where pass rushing is no longer a primary duty. See full data here
Round 7:
Of 36 players, 2 players (McCray, Ratliff) turned out solid and 31 busted.
Round 6:
Of 34 players, 1 player (T.Scott) turned out strong, and 31 busted.
Round 5:
Of 23 players, 2 players (T.Cole, R.Mathis) turned out elite, 2 (K.G.Biamila, Kampman) are strong and 1 more is solid. 13 players busted.
Round 4:
Of 30 players, 2 (J.Allen, Dumervil) are elite, 1 (S.Philips) is strong, and 3 more are solid. 19 players were busts.
Round 3:
Of 25 players, there are 4 solid (Tuck, Burgess, Hayward, Shaughnessy), and 15 busted.
Round 2:
Of 35 players, 2 (Woodley, Schobel) are elite, 2 (Umeniyora, D.Howard) are strong and 4 more are solid. 14 players are busts.
Round 1:
Of 40 players, 5 (Freeney, Peppers, M.Williams, Abraham, W.Smith) are elite, 5 (A.Carter, Sh.Ellis, Hali, Wimbley, J.Smith) are strong and 6 more are solid. 16 players are busts.
Conclusion:
Pass rushers have a very high bust rate. Even in the first round, only 25 and 40 percent turn out strong or solid, respectively. Drafting across the first 2 rounds yields starters about 30% of the time, and 40% bust.
Drafting in the middle three rounds yields a solid starter nearly 20 percent of the time (with a similar ratio of strong and elite rushers). Bust rates increase to 60%, but mid-round salaries are cheap, so it appears teams are better off spending several middle round picks on high-risk/high-reward prospects than trying to get the highly touted player.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
A quick aside: Trade Value
The Anquan Boldin trade discussion has fired up again, and everyone's asking what he's worth. Given the expectations from drafting a replacement wide receiver, we can give upper and lower bounds on his value.
What is he worth to the Cardinals?
One can make the argument that he's worth nothing. The Cardinals are 6-2 without him in the last 2 years. They would need to give him a big contract to keep him, and he's not likely to play at an elite level for more than the next 2 years, so simply not re-signing him is not out of the question.
What is he worth to another team?
Depends what the other team needs. There are two primary scenarios to consider: a team who needs a receiver to put them over the top, or a team building for the longer term. The team who needs a proven veteran is clearly the higher value proposition for the Cardinals. Such a team would need to spend a 1st and 2nd round pick to most likely get a player of Boldin's caliber. Missing slightly and getting another #3 receiver wouldn't do for such a team. In the immediate term, the value is therefore about a 1st and 2nd. However, if they do get a quality starter, that player is guaranteed to be with the team for 4-5 years on a rookie contract, which is likely substantially smaller than Boldin's future cost, so that cuts the total value of Boldin to half or slightly under. Thus, a team might spend a high 2nd round pick. A rebuilding team would have the same considerations as the Cardinals with respect to Boldin's cost and longevity, but given the small yield for a starter from the 3rd or 4th round, they're likely to easily trade such a pick. Thus, I'd bracket Boldin's value between about a 2nd and 3rd round pick. If there are multiple teams in the short-term need category vying for him, it could push his value up to a 2nd + a mid-round pick, or maybe a high 1st rounder, though that seems extreme.
What is he worth to the Cardinals?
One can make the argument that he's worth nothing. The Cardinals are 6-2 without him in the last 2 years. They would need to give him a big contract to keep him, and he's not likely to play at an elite level for more than the next 2 years, so simply not re-signing him is not out of the question.
What is he worth to another team?
Depends what the other team needs. There are two primary scenarios to consider: a team who needs a receiver to put them over the top, or a team building for the longer term. The team who needs a proven veteran is clearly the higher value proposition for the Cardinals. Such a team would need to spend a 1st and 2nd round pick to most likely get a player of Boldin's caliber. Missing slightly and getting another #3 receiver wouldn't do for such a team. In the immediate term, the value is therefore about a 1st and 2nd. However, if they do get a quality starter, that player is guaranteed to be with the team for 4-5 years on a rookie contract, which is likely substantially smaller than Boldin's future cost, so that cuts the total value of Boldin to half or slightly under. Thus, a team might spend a high 2nd round pick. A rebuilding team would have the same considerations as the Cardinals with respect to Boldin's cost and longevity, but given the small yield for a starter from the 3rd or 4th round, they're likely to easily trade such a pick. Thus, I'd bracket Boldin's value between about a 2nd and 3rd round pick. If there are multiple teams in the short-term need category vying for him, it could push his value up to a 2nd + a mid-round pick, or maybe a high 1st rounder, though that seems extreme.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)