Linebackers are the multi-tool of the defense. Some come blitzing off the edge, others fill running lanes, while some frequently drop back in coverage. The wide variety (or combination) of objectives makes them hard to compare, so I'll be leaning on pro-football-reference.com's Career Approximate Value (CarAV) to help me rank players. Similar to defensive backs, I've broken down picks between 2000 and 2008 into starter quality (starts at least 80% of seasons), journeyman (at least 50% of seasons) and the rest. I've correlated these with CarAV ranges to get an idea of what level of play is required for each bucket, and will look at player yields from the draft using these points of reference.
By inspecting the list of players, the 'elite' range for CarAV is above 9, and 'good' is above 7.5. Starter quality players average about 6, so I'll consider this the cutoff for an 'adequate' starter. The bottom third of the journeyman range is 4.5, which will become the cutoff for a bust ('backup'). Now let's see what the data shows.
Round 7:
Of 45 picks, there are 2 backup level players.
Round 6:
Of 37 picks, there are 1 good, 2 adequate and 1 backup players.
Round 5:
Of 44 picks, there are 3 adequate and 3 backup players.
Round 4:
Of 42 picks, there are 5 adequate and 4 backup players.
Round 3:
Of 53 picks, there are 1 elite, 1 good, 4 adequate and 6 backup players.
Round 2:
Of 39 picks, there are 3 elite, 2 good, 8 adequate and 5 backup players.
Round 1:
Of 27 picks, there are 5 elite, 6 good, 6 adequate and 5 backup players. 5 players were busts.
Conclusion:
We see the similar trend of little differentiation in rounds 5 through 7. Less than 5% of picks are of adequate starting caliber, and only another 5% are destined to backup duty. In rounds 3 and 4, the odds of each double, but even building depth is a slim proposition. Things change drastically from here though, as nearly half of 2nd round picks seeing significant action, with 1 in 3 being starter quality. We also see about 1 in 5 picks end up in the good or elite category. Round 1 yields about 2 starters per 3 picks and those are equally likely to be good or elite. The bust rate is less than 1 in 5.
Based on past pick history, teams should not use a top-10 pick on a linebacker. Brian Urlacher is the only good or elite pick in that range (#9). The other 4 (Arrington, Hawk, Sims, Rivers) have been quality players, but didn't reach the higher status for one reason or another (Arrington and Rivers missed significant time to injury). Looking more closely at the draft history, the quality starts to drop off pretty significantly by the middle of the 2nd. The range is just right for every team to get one good shot at a starting linebacker.
Friday, April 9, 2010
Thursday, April 8, 2010
Draft Metrics: Defensive Backs
What good is a strong pass rush if there aren't players to make a quarterback pay for poor passes? Defensive backs are the last line of defense, and have the largest ability to make big plays on the ball, but they're also the ones who get singled out for being burned over the top. So, what can we expect from a player? Most seasons, the NFL leader has 8-10 interceptions. The names are familiar: Darren Sharper, Ed Reed, Antonio Cromartie, Champ Bailey ... and yet, that level of success is incredibly hard to maintain. In fact, the highest per-season interception average over the last decade is just 5.8 (Ed Reed), and only two other players (Asante Samuel and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie) are at 5 per season. 7 more players are between 4 and 5, and there aren't quite enough players total (28) to leave every NFL team with one player averaging at least 3 interceptions per year.
We'll define players averaging 4 or more picks as 'elite' playmakers, 3 or more as 'good', 2 or more as 'adequate' and the rest are freely replacable. Any player starting over 80% of his seasons (to allow for one injured or bad season) in the league will be labeled a 'career starter', and players starting at least 50% of the season will be labeled 'fringe starters'. Of 485 picks made between 1999 and 2008, only 48 meet this criteria. So, based on picks made from 1999 to 2008, where should teams look to find these players?
See full data here.
Round 7:
Of 70 picks, 3 fall into the adequate playmaker category and all others are replacable. 1 player (Finnegan) has made 1 Pro Bowl. 1 player is a career starter and 6 are fringe.
Round 6:
Of 71 picks, 2 are adequate playmakers and all others are replacable. 1 player (Bethea) has made 1 Pro Bowl. 2 players are career starters and 1 is fringe.
Round 5:
Of 69 picks, 4 are adequate playmakers, and 1 player (Azumah) has made 1 Pro Bowl. 3 players are career starters. 3 are career starters, 4 are fringe.
Round 4:
Of 79 picks, 1 (Samuel) is an elite playmaker, 3 more (A.Henry, Vasher, Rhodes) are good and 5 more are adequate. There are 5 Pro Bowl appearances from this group (Samuel: 3, Vasher: 1, McGee: 1). 5 are career starters, 9 are fringe.
Round 3:
Of 67 picks, 2 (Atogwe, Wesley) are good playmakers, and 6 more are adequate. Wilson has made 3 Pro Bowls, C.Hope has made 1. 7 are career starters, 8 are fringe.
Round 2:
Of 73 picks, 1 (Mathis) is elite, 5 are good, and 14 are adequate playmakers. There are 13 Pro Bowl selections from this group, though the 2 belonging to Devin Hester are not for playing defense. 10 are career starters, 32 are fringe.
Round 1:
Of 56 selections, 8 are elite, 7 are good and 14 are adequate. 47 Pro Bowl spots over the last decade are from this group. 20 are career starters, 19 are fringe.
Defensive backs show a fast dropoff in playmaking skill and starting caliber through the rounds. Rounds 5-7 are essentially interchangable, yielding 6 career starters, 3 Pro Bowls and no good or elite playmakers in 210 tries. Rounds 3 and 4 contain 12 career starters, 19 fringe, 8 Pro Bowls, 1 elite and 5 good playmakers in 146 tries. The odds of an impact player stay safely under 10 percent. Round 2 improves the odds, but there's still only about a 30 percent chance of picking up a playmaker, and only about half of those stick as career starters.
Round 1 drastically improves the odds of picking up a playmaker who becomes a starter over a career. Bust rates are very high, barely 1 in 3 first rounders reach this level. Another 1 in 3 are shuffled in and out of lineups, relegated to Mel Kiper's assessment that they are not the long-term future of the position and an upgrade could be made. But Mel, the odds of the new pick beating them out just isn't that high.
It seems drafting defensive backs is a constant struggle, and teams picking well need to treasure that player. Even for just quality depth, picks should come from the top 2 rounds. Because of the high risk involved, these players should not be picked so high that their contracts become prohibitive. A smart team must realize there's a good chance their selection will not pan out, and has to be ready to move on in a few years.
We'll define players averaging 4 or more picks as 'elite' playmakers, 3 or more as 'good', 2 or more as 'adequate' and the rest are freely replacable. Any player starting over 80% of his seasons (to allow for one injured or bad season) in the league will be labeled a 'career starter', and players starting at least 50% of the season will be labeled 'fringe starters'. Of 485 picks made between 1999 and 2008, only 48 meet this criteria. So, based on picks made from 1999 to 2008, where should teams look to find these players?
See full data here.
Round 7:
Of 70 picks, 3 fall into the adequate playmaker category and all others are replacable. 1 player (Finnegan) has made 1 Pro Bowl. 1 player is a career starter and 6 are fringe.
Round 6:
Of 71 picks, 2 are adequate playmakers and all others are replacable. 1 player (Bethea) has made 1 Pro Bowl. 2 players are career starters and 1 is fringe.
Round 5:
Of 69 picks, 4 are adequate playmakers, and 1 player (Azumah) has made 1 Pro Bowl. 3 players are career starters. 3 are career starters, 4 are fringe.
Round 4:
Of 79 picks, 1 (Samuel) is an elite playmaker, 3 more (A.Henry, Vasher, Rhodes) are good and 5 more are adequate. There are 5 Pro Bowl appearances from this group (Samuel: 3, Vasher: 1, McGee: 1). 5 are career starters, 9 are fringe.
Round 3:
Of 67 picks, 2 (Atogwe, Wesley) are good playmakers, and 6 more are adequate. Wilson has made 3 Pro Bowls, C.Hope has made 1. 7 are career starters, 8 are fringe.
Round 2:
Of 73 picks, 1 (Mathis) is elite, 5 are good, and 14 are adequate playmakers. There are 13 Pro Bowl selections from this group, though the 2 belonging to Devin Hester are not for playing defense. 10 are career starters, 32 are fringe.
Round 1:
Of 56 selections, 8 are elite, 7 are good and 14 are adequate. 47 Pro Bowl spots over the last decade are from this group. 20 are career starters, 19 are fringe.
Defensive backs show a fast dropoff in playmaking skill and starting caliber through the rounds. Rounds 5-7 are essentially interchangable, yielding 6 career starters, 3 Pro Bowls and no good or elite playmakers in 210 tries. Rounds 3 and 4 contain 12 career starters, 19 fringe, 8 Pro Bowls, 1 elite and 5 good playmakers in 146 tries. The odds of an impact player stay safely under 10 percent. Round 2 improves the odds, but there's still only about a 30 percent chance of picking up a playmaker, and only about half of those stick as career starters.
Round 1 drastically improves the odds of picking up a playmaker who becomes a starter over a career. Bust rates are very high, barely 1 in 3 first rounders reach this level. Another 1 in 3 are shuffled in and out of lineups, relegated to Mel Kiper's assessment that they are not the long-term future of the position and an upgrade could be made. But Mel, the odds of the new pick beating them out just isn't that high.
It seems drafting defensive backs is a constant struggle, and teams picking well need to treasure that player. Even for just quality depth, picks should come from the top 2 rounds. Because of the high risk involved, these players should not be picked so high that their contracts become prohibitive. A smart team must realize there's a good chance their selection will not pan out, and has to be ready to move on in a few years.
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